Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds
- Thread starter Khorasan Black Flags
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Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
it's all well documented and widely accepted in professional circles that don't rely on unsourced propaganda claims
c. 30-35 impacts at Nevatim (corroborated by the videos from the day where we count c. 30 impacts):
at least 8 impacts seen at Tel Nof air base:
2 other missiles landed in Tel Aviv, one was 500m from Mossad HQ and one hit side of a road:
these are all the missile impacts we have any form of visual evidence of. around 40 in total. not to say that more impacts are impossible but these line up with Iranian statements of their targets and nothing else was caught on video or revealed in satellite imagery.
source of 180 ballistic missiles being fired in total:
Iran launches more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel
Israel warns of consequences for the attack, which Iran says was retaliation for attacks on its allies.
www.bbc.co.uk
Iran’s Missile Attack is a Challenge Israel Can’t Ignore
Iran will be hoping that it has reinforced its credibility in the Middle East with its attack on Israel, but it is more likely to prompt a damaging Israeli response.
www.rusi.org
now ask those who disagree to substantiate their claims that there were more impacts. they will not be able to (and I doubt they will even try, they just like to sling mud at others).
Musings
Administrator
And you attempt to talk down or show lack of respect for the loss of 5 Iranian souls? Don’t throw a stone and when you get a brick thrown back start crying. Stop being so immature. Stick to the topic with respect and there really isn’t any issues
Liquidator
Trusted Member
For me, Iranians demonstrated their accuracy when striking the American airbase. If you watch the documentary by Americans the US soldiers there at the time also testified to the accuracy of the strike. They also testified to the terrifying effects of blast wave damage.
Now...many have argued that Israel is further so you can't extrapolate the American base attack to mean they can respond in kind to Israel. I do not know enough about BMs to argue either way on that point however I won't assume Iran hasn't bothered improving its BM technology or taken distance into account. What I can do however is analyse TP1 and TP2:
- Saturation attack on 2 air bases. Granted specific structures were not taken out. However we must take into account the effects of blast wave damage on both personnel and sensitive equipment. In a war situation this would not be acceptable and as far as we are concerned those airbases were the most heavily defended bases on the planet. Prior TP1 the assessment was that Iran would not be able to hit them. Now that assessment has changed to well Iran can hit them but its no big deal? I begin to question the motivation of some posters when i behin to hear such thoughts....We also saw several secondary explosions at nevetim, so remember that....
- A single strike a few 100 meters from MOSAD headquarters hitting empty land. Not a Saturation attack....a SINGLE projectile. We saw the projectile clearly in the sky, with no other projectiles nearby in range of davids sling. My personal assumption is that this was a message. If Iran INTENDED to take out the MOSSAD headquarters they could easily have saturated it with 30+ BMs. Now we are getting into the realms of opinion of course...
- 2 projectiles hit the same target near an offshore refinery. Once again, its my opinion that it was a message. Both projectiles landed within a few seconds of one another. Iran did not want to open up its own energy infrastructure to strikes, in my opinion of course.
In addition, Israel has imposed strict censorship laws. People can get prosecuted, as such data is limited. We do not know where the other 100 odd missiles went....however we did not see a SINGLE intercept. They MAY have have completely failed, and landed 100s of KM off target buy we'll never know. It is OPINION that only 40-50 struck Israel on video so the remaining 100 not on video failed.
Thank u
lightning f57
Trusted Member
it's all well documented and widely accepted in professional circles that don't rely on unsourced propaganda claims
c. 30-35 impacts at Nevatim (corroborated by the videos from the day where we count c. 30 impacts):
at least 8 impacts seen at Tel Nof air base:
2 other missiles landed in Tel Aviv, one was 500m from Mossad HQ and one hit side of a road:
these are all the missile impacts we have any form of visual evidence of. around 40 in total. not to say that more impacts are impossible but these line up with Iranian statements of their targets and nothing else was caught on video or revealed in satellite imagery.
source of 180 ballistic missiles being fired in total:
Iran launches more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel
Israel warns of consequences for the attack, which Iran says was retaliation for attacks on its allies.
Iran’s Missile Attack is a Challenge Israel Can’t Ignore
Iran will be hoping that it has reinforced its credibility in the Middle East with its attack on Israel, but it is more likely to prompt a damaging Israeli response.
now ask those who disagree to substantiate their claims that there were more impacts. they will not be able to (and I doubt they will even try, they just like to sling mud at others).
I think what you have here is a baseline to work with. The minimum success rate is 25% based on the evidence seen so far.
If there was a high interception rate of our missiles during the october attack then I am thinking it was by design for the following reason:
Iran used the Shahab and Emad missile to drain Israel's interceptor missile supply before the Fattah missiles were used to ensure that most of the Fattahs could go through. Shahab and Emad missiles are old models compared to our newer missiles so the government was using them as cannon fodder during their attack on Israel. Hence why Israel claims a high interception rate of our missiles during our attack. In an actual attack shahabs, emads, and other older missile models will be used on mass to drain the THAAD and arrow 2/3 interceptor missile supply before Fattahs/khyeber shekans/Jihad missiles are used.
Iran used the Shahab and Emad missile to drain Israel's interceptor missile supply before the Fattah missiles were used to ensure that most of the Fattahs could go through. Shahab and Emad missiles are old models compared to our newer missiles so the government was using them as cannon fodder during their attack on Israel. Hence why Israel claims a high interception rate of our missiles during our attack. In an actual attack shahabs, emads, and other older missile models will be used on mass to drain the THAAD and arrow 2/3 interceptor missile supply before Fattahs/khyeber shekans/Jihad missiles are used.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
500m and we only see the one that makes impact, not the ones that are intercepted, so there is selection bias in your 'single projectile' assessment.
any evidence / video of this? as far as I know this was fake news about a gas platform gas flaring (burning natural gas, which they commonly do)
the censorship laws are indeed strict but they prevent the release of information relating to what was actually hit and what damage was suffered, not whether civilians can see warheads in the sky that impact *something*
in practice we have pretty good visibility into missiles launched at Israel and impacts are invariably caught on camera (see: recent weeks of Yemeni missile strikes into Israel)
Yemeni missiles hit civilian areas like Tel aviv. Iran targeted military sites. Its easier for Israel to block off their civilians from looking at their military sites than it is to block their civilians off from going to their own homes. Israel also asked google maps and other satellite mapping companies to blur out certain military facilities so we couldn't see the damage from above either.
Liquidator
Trusted Member
I clearly recall a video of 2 projectiles hitting very close to the off shore gas platform.
The plumes of fire youve described of the gas platform were clearly visible. I clearly recall another channel also documenting it and posting an assessment video of it. Unfortunately I cannot find those videos any longer despite having trawled through dozens....don't have the time. I have however found this one which is less clear and moves the camera direction just prior the second impact ( towards the end of video):
Perhaps someone else can post the video of 2 warning shots towards the off shore gas platform I am referring to and clearly recall....
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
we got pretty comprehensive videos from multiple angles of missiles hitting numerous Israeli air force bases during both operations
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
I know what you are talking about but that was fake news shared by low quality sources in the fog of war
let me make it easier for you
video you think shows impact on a gas rig:
video of gas flaring you think shows the result of that impact:
but it was refuted by other sources:
I believe these two impacts shown (in Tel Aviv) are the missiles that impacted 500m from Mossad HQ and one that hit the side of the road
@Persian Gulf Do you think this analysis of the October strike is correct?
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
hard to say but larger number of advanced missiles used (and shown) in TP2 vs TP1 suggests IRI planners wanted higher success rate and not just to deplete interceptors
if depleting interceptors was the primary goal they would have followed up with more strikes to exploit that. but they haven't
I think you misunderstand me. The IR wanted to deplete israel with cheaper missiles to ensure that the fattah and more advanced missiles can get through
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