Turkish Foreign Policy and Regional Geopolitics
- Thread starter Eşbah
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Oublious
Registered Member
Looks like Zionists hit them real hard, country that export Gas do not have it for self
. I hope Azerbadjian says iroon fak off we will not allow it, you did bitching around when we asked from Armenians Zengezour corridor. Iron not this is not good for Armanian integrity, this pipe is not good for Azerbadjan integrity. No pipe go smoke pipe.hyperman
INT'L MOD
Looks like Zionists hit them real hard, country that export Gas do not have it for self
Iran while it has extensive gas reserves, ends up using essentially all of it internally, b/c of sanctions preventing development of other energy sectors and investments. All of it gets used for electricity generation and they have trouble expanding more production capacity b/c of sanctions and lack of investment. Also they subsidize energy prices quite significantly to keep prices low and not create discontent. They are suffering from power outages b/c the demand is higher than supply, especially with these crypto miners that have become popular there b/c of low electricity prices. They have been trying to diversify lately, but its still a work in progress.
This Pipeline is actually good for Azerbaijan, what it does is it gives them leverage over Russian Gas exports and makes them a transit state/Hub. It also makes Iran dependent on Azerbaijan for gas potentially.
Azerbaijan has already Agreed to the North South Corridor, and the new rail line for transport of goods, this is an extension of that.
International North–South Transport Corridor - Wikipedia
Its better than the route pass through Azerbaijan, b/c the alternative is that the Russians will just send the pipeline either through the Caspian sea or the eastern bank of the Caspian Sea via Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
The building of the pipeline also potentially removes Russian/Iranian objections to an Azerbaijan Turkmenistan pipeline, that element/concession should be negotiated by Azerbaijan, that the others agree to not voice objections to an Azerbaijan-Turkemistan pipeline, in exchange for a pipeline from Russia to Iran. Currently under the 2018 convention signed Russia and Iran have the right to object to a pipeline citing potential Environmental damage to the Caspian Sea.
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- Thread starter
- #323
Never going to happen because it doesn't make sense at all. It simply lacks logic.
What would motivate the Iranians to sell Russian gas rather than their own resources?
What incentive does Russia have to invest in a country like Iran that faces significant sanctions, specifically tailored to target Iranian energy infrastructure?
I don't want Russian gas in Türkiye either.
Qaraca
Registered Member
Iran faces energy shortage. It’s first and foremost for Iran’s consumption, as I understood it.
Azerbaijan signed an agreement with EU to double gas exports until 2027, so all extra gas production in Azerbaijan will go to EU. But Russia can supply Iran.
hyperman
INT'L MOD
Other way around brother, the Iranians are Buying not selling. The Iranians have an electricity shortage b/c current production levels from their own fields don't match consumption, especially when these Crypto miners have been taking advantage of the subsidized electricity. The Russians also plan on setting up an LNG facility in the Persian Gulf coast of Iran to send LNG to India and the rest of Asia(ASEAN), as well as potentially to the more wealthy state in Africa.
hyperman
INT'L MOD
Because they are also sanctioned and need to do something to offload the Gas they do have. The are currently stuck in negotiations with China, which China playing hardball on pricing and cost of building new pipelines for the proposed Altai gas pipeline(China wants them to pay for the pipeline as well as rock bottom prices, being the only buyer as Europe dries up). The Ukrainian pipeline just went offline. So in essence, the Russian currently only have 1 pipeline active for gas sales from their western gas fields via Turkey.
A pipeline to Iran(which will consume the Gas, and also export it) is essentially one of the few path left to them. The only market left untapped outside of europe is ASEAN and India.
Currently their LNG is not competitive b/c of the cost of transport from Arctic to Asia compared to Middle Eastern LNG from Qatar and others, A land pipeline that going to the Iranian coast would allow them to be somewhat more cost competitithat is ve. As well as fill the gap of the supply of LNG used to go to Asia but is now going to Europe from Qatar and elsewhere..
- Thread starter
- #327
I was thrown off by the term 'gas hub' since Putin suggested in October 2024 that Turkey could become a central point for Russian gas deliveries.
Initially, there was a wave of optimism in Turkey, but the project has since hit a standstill. The Russians seem reluctant to share profits and control over the gas supply routes.
hyperman
INT'L MOD
The Russians are diversifying, there is no guarantee the Europeans buy Russia gas via Turkey, especially now that people are talking about a Qatar/Saudi gas pipeline going to Turkey and then Europe via Syria.
The Russians are trying to break into the Asian market, and the best way to do that is via pushing a pipeline to Iran, and then an LNG facility there potentially to carry gas to India and ASEAN. Otherwise the only buyer left for Russia is China, and China is playing hardball b/c they know they are the only buyer, plus, China buys from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, so for them to want Russian gas, it would have to be price competitive from Turkmen gas always flowing to China, and for that to Happen, Russia would have to build the pipeline with its own money plus give the discount rates that Turkmenistan is already giving(and the Turkmen they also only have 1 buyer in China b/c they don't have a pipeline going to Europe currently).
hyperman
INT'L MOD
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