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the US lost interest in Europe.After 100 billion EU spent on Ukraine war, US told them Russia is not their enemy ......lolllllllllllllll .....Germany is furious and lost billions of dollars in trade with Russia.
Well, your entire thesis is based on the west with withdraw support to Ukraine.
Again, this is NOT going to happen, in fact, NATO let Ukraine in too many secret for them to get rolled back to Russian sphere of influence or China if it was even worse. For all intend and purpose, Ukraine is already in NATO, when NATO give them everything they have in their arsenal (Tanks, Artillery, Drone, Fighter Plane and so on) except warship, the short time that these platform were given mean they don't have time to scrub the secret in it, which mean whatever platform were send, the Ukrainian have to know how NATO work to use such weapon, I don't think NATO is going to change everything they do just to give Ukraine back, it's still doable when NATO is sending Javelin or Stinger or Starstreak or what not, once tanks, artillery, and fighter plane got involved, that's ball game, it can never leave. It's like losing Australia or Japan to Russia and China.
For Kursk, first of all, unless Russia performance is going to be more bismal than now, so they can claim Kursk make progress for them. It most definitely work in Ukraine favor than Russia, this is very obvious, as Ukraine territories loss has stamped. With what? 3 Brigade in there? Look at Feb 2024 and compare them with Feb 2025. Last year same time, Russian made a big push and took Avdiivka and Semenvika and close the 7 km cauldron. Since then in 2025 now, the Russian pushed 25km from there (in 1 year) to Horlivka, and nothing in Provosk region except realign the line (which I said what they will do last year) but then Kursk got invaded themselves, and today 6 months later, Ukraine still hold at least half of what they had in Kursk, that itself is a net lose, but the entire line pushed around 10-25 km inward in a year time. What is the advantage the Russian had? The only conclusion anyone can have is that Russian progress is slowed down by the Kursk incursion, not the other way around.
I don't know what Russia wants before it started this war, but if their goal is to take 20% of Ukraine and conquer Donbas and taken all the resource in there, and take all its mineral, then I will say they fought a wrong war. Also, as a person who studied economy, I can say fairly Russian economy is doomed, unless China come to the rescue (not sure if they will) because Russia is paying credit card rate in their economy for this war. And this is going to impact them even if the war stop tomorrow, interest rate is not just a refence, you really need to pay off those interest when people's deposit mature. Meaning Russian paying of 21.5% interest rate for about 2 years now in order to stem the currency flow, which in order to stop the inflation means they already have to pay off 47% more in interest (interest is compound, if you deposit 1 rouble in 2023, at 21.5% annum you get 1.215 rouble back in 2024 and you will get 1.476 rouble in 2025) That expanded the debt for about 50% in just 2 years thanks to this interest rate. how are you going to be able to pay that off even if the war ends today, interest rate will not go down today? And then you also restrict the flow of capital, that why you hike the interest rate to begin with, but then what? You limited economy growth because you limited how much money you have in circulation, which mean GDP dropped, and the government have a lower output, putting it with half the industry is now engaging in war economy (46% of Russian GDP coming from Defence sector) which is of no use once the war stopped. Can you even support that high interest rate? The longer this war drag on, the more debt Russia incurred. again, more than credit card rate.
The west perspective is that they want to support an independent Ukraine, they don't want to defeat the Russian either, that's message was quite clear from what they are sending to Ukraine, the West did enough Ukraine not to collapse, but not enough to change the dynamic, otherwise you will be seeing division of tanks being send, instead of "Battalion" of tanks, and Ukraine would have all the F-16 (some 200) currently sitting in Davis-Monthan airbase in the graveyard, which is doing nothing, but no, we gave them 20, in fact, US gave them none.
Are we looking at the same map dude?? 800 per month? It's 6 months since Kursk, if Russia is taking 800km per month, that's 4800 sq km in the last 6 months, that's almost half of what Ukraine held in Donbas before Kursk (Ukraine hold roughly 10,000 sq kilometers of Donbas since June 2024.)Since the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk - has in no way stalled Putins Army advance. Russia accelerated in the rest of Ukraine. At the start of 2024 Russia was taking 40km* per month, after the Kursk offensive Russia started taking 400-800km* per month. I'm not saying that it's all because of Kursk, but those poor territorial defence units surely would love to have reinforcements from elite Ukrainian brigades instead of being encircled in Kurahovo, Velika Novosilka or Ugledar. Btw, Ugledar held for 2 years before the Kursk offensive, then it fell within days. Plus Chasov Yar and Toretsk Is there a reason why Russia should be in a hurry to kick Ukraine out of Kursk instead of evaporating them there and taking ground in the Donbas much easier?




they won the war which is much more important than possible small margin errors on tactical operational levels. usa is begging for peace not russians.Are we looking at the same map dude?? 800 per month? It's 6 months since Kursk, if Russia is taking 800km per month, that's 4800 sq km in the last 6 months, that's almost half of what Ukraine held in Donbas before Kursk (Ukraine hold roughly 10,000 sq kilometers of Donbas since June 2024.)
This is Donbas (traced in Black) as of today
View attachment 102571
This is the same map at August 7, 2024, the day Ukraine invaded Kursk
View attachment 102572
Show me where is the 4800 km Russian Captured??
And, as I said last year with @mulj Russia need to stabilise their line before they push into Provorsk, this is what they were during taking Kurakhove, even that front, you are talking about 700 sq kilometers, not 4800 sq kilometers.....
View attachment 102576
View attachment 102575
By the way, that 700 sq kilometer is offset by Kursk, in case you are wondering. So effectively, the net gain for the entire 2024 is some 100sq kilometers....Not 4800....
This is why I don't post in this thread anymore, it's pointless, people seeing progress that weren't there in the map and without any knowledge on how war works, at the end of the day, it's just going to be me who keep saying "this is not how it work" year after year, this is the third year in this thread that people said "Ukraine line is collapsing" and it is going to be the same this year, next year, and in year 2030 we will probably still talking about this war and they may or may not get as far as Kramatorsk, but well, considering this, Iraq is roughly 6 times the size as Donbas, US capture the entire country in 37 days, we are coming into 37 months, so even if Russia really did conquered the entire Donbas, it wouldn't even be something that worth celebrating. And people like you keep saying Ukraine will capitulate. Well, let me put in this way, THIS, all this is just 20% of Ukraine, Russia is fighting for 20% of Ukraine, and Russia only win if they capture 100% of Ukraine, how long do you think it will be when Russia march toward Kyiv again? Because nobody will capitulate with 20% of their territories down...............And the Russian weren't even at this level yet.
tell that to the russiansYou fcking kidding me? M2K? Seriously? Is the Ukraine the dumping ground for outtdated weapons? Should have sent in some rafales if they are serious about it.

tell that to the russians
they throw everything they have from dead USSR into Ukraine.
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