Turkish Foreign Policy and Regional Geopolitics

[hyperman]

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Very interesting alignments in the Balkans.

I thought the Croatia Serbia beef was over, but I guess not. lol

 

[Foinikas]

Its to be expected, although I didn't expect them to exclude the UK. Not too big of a deal, it limits Turkey's ability to sell weapons to Europe directly, while getting paid from the Fund, but does not stop it.

Well you know Brits,they want to be in the EU,then don't want to be in the EU. We'll be in the EU,but we'll keep our own money,then "you know what,we'll just leave" and when the war in Ukraine started they went like "hey guys we have to help,we are all allies,we must help the Ukrainians,the future of Europe...the Russians...they...Putin...it's Hitler again...help Germany,help France!"

or example, the Baykar drones being produced in Italy by a Baykar Subsidiary would be allowed to sell equipment from there as its a product produced in Italy, but the revenue would go to Baykar.

Similarly many subsidies of Turkish companies can be formed in Friendly EU states. For example Hungary which does not have a domestic defense industry and would be eager for investment by Turkey.

I don't know about that. I can't say. They might block that as well.

Not sure this is enough for you to gloat and post pictures. lol

I'm teasing you,because you've been going bravado on everything pro-Turkish for pages and pages and weeks and weeks Hahaha

Btw, the agreement allows for external countries to be allowed to use the fund if they reach a defense agreement with the EU, of course that could also be blocked by Greece, but that remains to be seen.

I don't know. They have to make it clear if we'll buy exclusively European stuff or ...well you know,the thing is,our government wanted Israeli AA systems when they had been nagging for EU to go full European and some EU countries were looking at us going like "What? You're insisting on EU products and negotiating for Israeli?"

I don't know. I think they have to make it clear. What's to buy,from where,how much etc.

 

[Foinikas]

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Very interesting alignments in the Balkans.

I thought the Croatia Serbia beef was over, but I guess not. lol

I thought so too,but apparently both sides are still not so friendly. I'm not saying they will go to war,but they still both arm slowly against each other. But Croatia allying with Albania and Kosovo is an clear (and stupid in my opinion) provocation towards Serbia. It's not necessary.

 

[Flotilla]

Hola, bros!

I was thinking on my brothers of Turkey.

Turkey in undeclared state of emergency following detention of Erdogan rival Imamoglu

Turkey on March 19 was cast into an undeclared state of emergency following the detention during an early-morning police raid of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem ...

intellinews.com

Do you think Erdogan will need something like... ehem... Islamic revolutionary corps?

 

[hyperman]

I don't know about that. I can't say. They might block that as well.

No, if its made in Italy or Hungary, then anyone trying to interfere with that, is messing with Italy's interests and Hungary would be upset too.

A subsidiary in an EU state can make the weapons, the profits go to the Turkish company after paying EU taxes, but its still a nuisance that the production is not Turkey, which would affect some prices for production, although if they do it in a poorer EU country, maybe they can make up that.

The 65% EU production thing is a nuisance. Assuming Turkey doesn't have an agreement with the EU to allow for the sales of Turkish made products, the way to get around this would be to make 35% of the product in Turkey, then ship it for final production/assembly in an EU state, buy off the shelf EU stuff and then do final assembly.

Turkey is already doing this with Germany, Turkey transferred over tech to Germany to build modern artillary production lines in Germany.

I'd expect more of this sort of deal, but with Hungary, I think they would be a good market. Hungary has no industry and no real defense sector, to the opportunity to have a company come in use Hugarian workers and build products built in Hungary to sell to the rest of the EU would be lucrative for them.

Turkish defense industry makes technology transfer to Germany

Turkish-based Repkon signs contract to install turnkey facility to produce, fill artillery in Germany, set to be operational in early 2027 - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

 

[hyperman]

I thought so too,but apparently both sides are still not so friendly. I'm not saying they will go to war,but they still both arm slowly against each other. But Croatia allying with Albania and Kosovo is an clear (and stupid in my opinion) provocation towards Serbia. It's not necessary.

Croatia is making Power moves in the Balkans. Historically there has always been beef between Croats and Serbs and there is bad blood over the Post Yugoslav conflicts, but even beyond that there is a border dispute with Serbia and I think Croatia will weaponize its EU membership against Serbia and make Serbia pay the pound of flesh price over it potentially.

Croats will look to counter any Serbia play in Bosnia as well as try to recruit anyone else that Serbia has beef with, in an attempt to counterbalance Serbia. So the fact that they are recruiting the Albanians seems to be inline with that. I don't think Serbia has capacity to retaliate so i doubt Croatia will back away, they have ambitions of being a player in the Balkans and they have EU NATO membership while Serbia is on the outside. Croatia also views Serbia as hostile to its interests regards Bosnia, specifically the interests of Bosnian Croats.

 

[Eşbah]

Whoever believes that Croatians have ceased their resentment towards Serbians has clearly no insight into Balkan politics.

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[Foinikas]

Whoever believes that Croatians have ceased their resentment towards Serbians has clearly no insight into Balkan politics.

If you imply me,I never said they don't resent each other,I'm saying the possibility of them going to war again is small. They both arm of course,but they're not in a crazy race.

 

[Foinikas]

Croatia is making Power moves in the Balkans. Historically there has always been beef between Croats and Serbs and there is bad blood over the Post Yugoslav conflicts, but even beyond that there is a border dispute with Serbia and I think Croatia will weaponize its EU membership against Serbia and make Serbia pay the pound of flesh price over it potentially.

What border dispute? Between Serbia and Croatia? In Slavonia? Or are you talking about RS vs Croatia?

 

[hyperman]

What border dispute? Between Serbia and Croatia? In Slavonia? Or are you talking about RS vs Croatia?

Croatia–Serbia border dispute - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Foinikas]

Croatia–Serbia border dispute - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Bah,personally I think that's the least of their troubles. If they start a war,it will probably be for some other reason. But Croats trying to ally with Albos,that's kind of weird. And it would logically make Serbs suspicious.

 

[hyperman]

But Croats trying to ally with Albos,that's kind of weird.

In the same region with the same Adversary. Both have territorial disputes with Serbia and don't want Serbians to dominate the Western Balkans. Makes more sense that one would think.

Essentially everyone in that region is either wary of Serbia and possible encroachment or in the case of the Croatians, wish to be a power player/main power in the Balkans.

 

[Eşbah]

What's behind Serbia's rearmament?

Serbia has invested hugely in rearmament in recent years, making it the biggest military force in the Western Balkans. Neighboring countries are alarmed.

www.dw.com

This is the reason why Croats and Albanians are worried right now. Serbia is making significant investments in its military capabilities.

 

[hyperman]

What's behind Serbia's rearmament?

Serbia has invested hugely in rearmament in recent years, making it the biggest military force in the Western Balkans. Neighboring countries are alarmed.

www.dw.com

This is the reason why Croats and Albanians are worried right now. Serbia is making significant investments in its military capabilities.

I don't think Kosovo is as big of an issue, its relatively homogenous outside of a small area in Northern Kosovo that is Majority Serb.

Me Personally I always felt that Serbia and Kosovo should agree to a land swap, where the Serbs get areas in Northern Kosovo, and Serbia gives Presevo Valley which is majority Albanian. Then do delimitation of borders and mutual recognition as well as Serbia's support for Kosovo's UN membership. I know this solution possibly complicates situations for other countries in the region, but this will decisively solve the Kosovo issue.

Kosovo–Serbia land swap - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The real issue is Bosnia. Kosovo shares a land border with Albania which has a coastline as well, so if any conflict breaks out, Kosovo can be reenforced relatively easily. The Bosnian brothers unfortunately are dependent on NATO as well as Croatia for help, its very difficult to reenforce, especially when Republika Srpska controls half the place and the areas bordering Serbia, after they got rid of the Bosnians that lived there.

 

[Foinikas]

In the same region with the same Adversary. Both have territorial disputes with Serbia and don't want Serbians to dominate the Western Balkans. Makes more sense that one would think.

Essentially everyone in that region is either wary of Serbia and possible encroachment or in the case of the Croatians, wish to be a power player/main power in the Balkans.

It's weird because,apart from WWII when the Ustashe Croatia and Italian Albania were fighting on the same side and maybe even cooperated a few times,they haven't had any traditional contact or alliance in modern history. It was more likely for Croatians to ally themselves and have good relations with the Bosnian Muslims,rather than Albanians.

Anyway,interesting development.

This is the reason why Croats and Albanians are worried right now. Serbia is making significant investments in its military capabilities.

don't think Kosovo is as big of an issue, its relatively homogenous outside of a small area in Northern Kosovo that is Majority Serb.

I don't think the Serbs would go on a new war. Not without having the full support of Russia or at least without getting the green light from the US and other countries in NATO,that they won't interfere and Kosovo is let's say "fair game" for them to retake it.

Other than that,I don't think anyone in NATO or the EU would let the Serbs start a war against Croatia. Kosovo yes,but not Croatia.