OSP here. Long time on and off member of this forum and the previous one.
I decided to create another account so I can add my bits and provide strategy clarity and options for the Pakistan state in how to handle the fallout from the recent violence by natives against the Hindu occupation of Kashmir.
The Indians are extremely opportunistic and will use this incident to try to settle scores from 2019 failed Balakote strikes and the Pakistan's swift retaliation in broad daylight right afterwards.
I do not believe that Pakistan at the state level had a hand in the current violence. I do not believe it was a false flag by the Indians either (I'm 50% sure about this).
The Indians will try to seek out weak points in Pakistan's defense before committing to another "Surgical Strike" drama like the last two times.
If they cannot find a weak point, they will likely opt to put massive political pressure on Islamabad by influencing their Arab partners in the Gulf and the US. What they will seek is put Islamabad in a cage where the Indians will demand sort of assistance by opening up Pakistan's internal policies and books to the India. Under the guise of "cooperation" the Indians will attempt to demand full bend of the knees from Islamabad where New Delhi will be established as the sole dominant power in South Asia. New Delhi will seek extradition of Pakistani citizens regardless of their involvement.
Pakistan policy makers under no circumstance give in to these demands. New Delhi will put military pressure as a ploy to get Pakistan's cooperation, in other words, full bending of the knees. Islamabad needs to stand firm and deny all assistance (cooperation). Call the Indian's bluff and forced them to conduct military operations.
Now to the military operations part. In this scenario too, Islamabad needs to retaliate disproportional to any military moves against Pakistan's lands, territories, and people. New Delhi expects to replicate the Israeli model where they slowly degraded the neighboring countries psychological defense before shifting the focus to military one. So far Pakistan's preparation and massive military has put cold water on the Indian's ambition.
Regardless of what type of attack is conducted, Islamabad will have no choice to retaliate massively and call New Delhi's bluff. No amount of pressure from the Gulf or the West, and even the Chinese should stop Pakistan from a massive retaliation.
Past strikes attempts by the Indians have only ended New Delhi's humiliation. New Delhi will attempt to offer some sort of a normalization deal if Islamabad will allow New Delhi to conducts strikes for the domestic homefront. This too will be a trap as now it will embolden the Indians for future strikes and categorically will place Islamabad as a second tier military power in the South Asia. Future leaders of Pakistan will look to this incident and say "they've done it in the past so what's the big deal to let them do it." This is how Pakistan will come undone.
Islamabad cannot look the other way as some suggested prior to Imran Khan and the Air Force chief taking bold decisions to escalate. The escalatory ladder belongs to Pakistan and only Pakistan.
Pakistan military/civilian leadership has to stand firm.
@Mods, please ban any indian from this thread as they are out in force trying to psychological undermine Pakistan's unity in these trying times.
Also, Please ban any Pro-IK comments (many of them also seem like Indian larpers trying to iginite internal infighting amongst Pakistanis).