POST WAR assessment of recent conflict.

[Rational Philosopher]

Preface:
I appreciate the premise of this thread very much. No matter how I have been self-critical of Pakistanis and Pakistanis, the one thing that I have always known us to be better at than the Indians is our closer relationship with facts, reality, and critical analysis. Unfortunately, on the last day (yet) of the conflict showed some disturbing trends from our media and general public where I feel like a lot of exaggerations, false-bravados, and propaganda were seen, not as bad but in the same vein as the Indians. I feel VERY STRONGLY that we should NOT become like the Indians in this very important aspect, which is why I really appreciate the creation of this thread. With all of this said, I feel like a lot of people will inevitably do adhominem attacks and call me traitor in the time of war. While I am used to this when I used to call out the military pre-PTI, this will be in a different context, where the whole country is apparently on the same page. I can only request that you please read what I have to say with a cool mind and believe that I do have Pakistan's best interest at heart.

The air-to-air battle:
This happened on the first night and we have essentially undeniable evidence of the losses suffered by IAF at the hands of PAF. Obviously, I wouldn't know exactly why PAF overpowered IAF in this way but I have some theories:
1. The IAF did not expect PAF to shoot at them while they were inside their airspace because PAF did not shoot at them until they crossed or were about to cross in 2019.
2. The PAF has a very well-oiled network-centric doctrine that has been shown to be superior to IAF's slightly hotch-potch doctrine that results from the plethora of systems that they operate.
I feel like PAF has discovered that PAF's best bet is to create panic inside IAF and that is easy to do and creates a favorable situation for PAF.


The drone strikes by India over several nights:
Every night, we would be hit by volleys of all kinds of drones - even target drones. Clearly this was meant to saturate our ADGE and to illicit a response.
1. It is good that we did not activate our main missile defense for hitting them.
2. There was mixed success in EW-based defense against these.
3. I understand that it is nearly impossible to defend against such mass attacks totally effectively.
The mistakes we made:
1. Relying too much on big systems like HQ-16 HQ-9 etc spread over TWO services (PAF PA). It is almost like we were not expecting to deal with drone swarms.
2. Not responding.

Delayed Response: "Time and Place of Our Choosing"
It is exceedingly obvious that in the Indo-Pak theatre mounting defense is tricky. You really have to do offense. Pakistan's failure to respond for days emboldened the Indians to keep terrorizing Pakistani pubic.


Receipts:
The delayed response would be digestable if we actually had receipts for our response. I am sorry but Indians have totally outclassed us in the realm of battle damage assesment. They showed before/after pictures of our bases that will be shared with the world for years. We on the other hand were only able to show videos of radar pictures and everything else was trust me bro. In this day and age it is crucial to have some kind of BDA - as we had in 2019 with the videos using H weapons. Even if someone wants to argue that Pakistan did an amazing response after waiting alot, they cannot because there's no evidence for it.



Key Weakness for Us:
1. Speed of Response: We need to have gameplans and responses preplanned and excercised by units. We can't be caught waiting and doing nothing. Call it restraint or whatever - the delay hurt us.
2. The magnitude of the response: Unfortunately, our response was NOT proportionate - the Indians had been terrorizing us for 3 nights and launched so many Brahmos, Harops, Target drones at us. We only launched some F1 and F2. I understand that we are a poor country that can't afford much, but our response was weak.
3. Ability to give evidence of our response: We need satellites or drones to be part of our response plan because a strike that has no evidence for might as well not have happened.
4. Lack of defense of AFBs against drone swarms - we need cost effective HARD KILL measures against drone swarms that don't rely on using our air defense systems.


People will get angry but I feel that Pakistan's detterence has been greatly damaged if not ruined by this episode. A consequence of this is India will surely repeat something like this, with even more intensity next time something happens on their side and they want some war mongering.

After 2019 our deterrence was solidified, after 2025 our deterrence has been weakened. This begs the question why India did 2025 if 2019 had made such a great detterence? Well,
a. They are kind of beholden to their internal politics too much.
b. The shoot down of so many of their jets really had them out to balance things.
c. They had prepared and improved a LOT since 2019 - they had a whole new strategy this time.

Beautiful assessment as always. And completely agree at the beginning point of your thread.

My advice to our Pakistanis is to never fall in an echo-chamber where you cannot be self-critical. Even criticise yourself if you do amazingly well. Only way to improve.

No one here should try to cope with things using lies ever. Be honest and critical.

 

[Han Patriot]

Army has already done 9/10 on Chinese SAM , expand network

Perhaps more Turkish SAM to Supplement Chinese (Low-Med-High) Systems

Few more Turkish , Akinc (Drones ) , can Air to Air Pakistani SAM be placed on these ? Hypothetical question . Can K-8 have small air to air missiles ? for Hunting the smaller drones ?

May be CWIS like system for Land or Mobile Truck

Bro, AD systems are not meant to down hundreds of drones and missiles, it was meant to down planes. No system in the world can protect an airbases under saturation attack, not the S400 not the patriot. The best way is to jam the drones, which I think Pak did to a certain degree. It was smart not to engage the HAROPs. The area you can improve is use Chinese anti-radition drones and retaliate.

 

[Han Patriot]

Beautiful assessment as always. And completely agree at the beginning point of your thread.

My advice to our Pakistanis is to never fall in an echo-chamber where you cannot be self-critical. Even criticise yourself if you do amazingly well. Only way to improve.

No one here should try to cope with things using lies ever. Be honest and critical.

Good assessment but Pak punched above their weight, they forced a country 10x larger into a ceasefire. I really hope China develop Pak militarily and economically, and counter India, else these jeets will go crazy. You know what they say a Brahmin is either under your feet or on your throat.

 

[That_Guy]

Bad as they might be, Modi and co are democratically proper legit.

Your fauj, now out of hibernation/the shadows.. is not.

Munir poked India, and ab uski downfall starts

More whataboutism.

Literally nothing you wrote actually address any of my points.

Also, no one poked India. India poked itself.

The sooner Indians realize that when you have a genocidal regime offering you words of support, the sooner India will realize that maybe their actions in Kashmir aren't all that great.

 

[Han Patriot]

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Damn, Pak is giving too much details, they even tracked a couple of Brahmos veering off into Afghanistan. And they proved using softkill they could immobilize the Brahmos. But he admitted, that they couldn't intercept everything when India was lobbing hundreds of missiles and drones. India probably exhausted alot of Brahmos and Drones. A few billion down the drain for what? A few craters and a damaged roof and a slightly damaged plane?

 

[Han Patriot]

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Intact SCALP with seeker and detonation head. Very useful for PLA unlike the exploded 'intact' Chinese missile they claim to have..lolol

 

[Great Mal]

Pakistan has no answer to the conventional inventory of Air & ground launched conventional missiles the Indian army/air force has accumulated i.e Brahmos (both air & ground launch 500km + range) Paralay (Ground launched ballistic missile with a large conventional payload, range 500km)

It is starting to make sense why Pakistan did not retaliate with Babur, Raad 2. These are purely kept for non conventional, i.e nuclear strikes.

So the next best thing they could do was shoot Fatah 1 & 2 both respectively ranging from 140km to 400km range. But this is not enough neither is or will be a deterrent to ward off more Brahmos/Indian conventional firepower salvos.

Time we start taking things seriously & either develop or take missiles from China that you can rework to fit your needs:

500km-1200km supersonic & subsonic CONVENTIONAL missiles, with both air & ground launch capabilities.

800km-1500km conventional ballistic missile inventory enough to deter Indian miscalculations deep inside India.

This should be a clear no bullshit cut plan for Pakistan military.

 

[Han Patriot]

Pakistan has no answer to the conventional inventory of Air & ground launched conventional missiles the Indian army/air force has accumulated i.e Brahmos (both air & ground launch 500km + range) Paralay (Ground launched ballistic missile with a large conventional payload, range 500km)

It is starting to make sense why Pakistan did not retaliate with Babur, Raad 2. These are purely kept for non conventional, i.e nuclear strikes.

So the next best thing they could do was shoot Fatah 1 & 2 both respectively ranging from 140km to 400km range. But this is not enough neither is or will be a deterrent to ward off more Brahmos/Indian conventional firepower salvos.

Time we start taking things seriously & either develop or take missiles from China that you can rework to fit your needs:

500km-1200km supersonic & subsonic CONVENTIONAL missiles, with both air & ground launch capabilities.

800km-1500km conventional ballistic missile inventory enough to deter Indian miscalculations deep inside India.

This should be a clear no bullshit cut plan for Pakistan military.

China does have an export version limited to 300km.

 

[Great Mal]

China does have an export version limited to 300km.

Am sure we can make something work, after all ‘Deeper than oceans & higher than Himalayas’ friendship has to come in clutch.

If not we are looking at a bleak future for Pakistan military, we cant keep playing the nuclear bluff.

 

[Han Patriot]

Am sure we can make something work, after all ‘Deeper than oceans & higher than Himalayas’ friendship has to come in clutch.

If not we are looking at a bleak future for Pakistan military, we cant keep playing the nuclear bluff.

First thing is develop your economy, China did tell India they will 'uphold Pakistan's Sovereignity'. It means if Pakistan is invaded, we will intervene. Nuclear option is the last resort if India crosses the border which I think they wouldn't do. Vance said he had intelligence something big was coming and called Modi to accept a ceasefire.

 

[Great Mal]

First thing is develop your economy, China did tell India they will 'uphold Pakistan's Sovereignity'. It means if Pakistan is invaded, we will intervene. Nuclear option is the last resort if India crosses the border which I think they wouldn't do. Vance said he had intelligence something big was coming and called Modi to accept a ceasefire.

That something big was likely Pakistan feeling the push too much & going nuclear, in my humble understanding.

The thing is we need a strong conventional deterrence when you have a deterrence in place there is no need for anything to go nuclear unless you both decide to do something very very stupid.

 

[El Sidd]

There is massive communication gap between realpolitik and rhetorical politics in Pakistan. Pakistanis still to a large extent oblivious of the existential threat they face from a much larger foe.

Undesirable aspects of social media have again questioned the moral decline in the society fatigued by 3 decades of war of evolving nature. Spread of fake news and glorification in contribution to mass hysteria.

Government does not seem to posses a playbook in mass administration. Civilian losses of life and infrastructure compensation mechanism and support mechanism in post war realities of life.

Unfortunately early signs tell again a tale of missed opportunities and spectacular mediocrity.

 

[That_Guy]

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Intact SCALP with seeker and detonation head. Very useful for PLA unlike the exploded 'intact' Chinese missile they claim to have..lolol

This is a huge find.

Studying it should boost further research into advancing missile tech.

 

[Mr X]

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Intact SCALP with seeker and detonation head. Very useful for PLA unlike the exploded 'intact' Chinese missile they claim to have..lolol

So are we doing reverse engineering and the missile ready in 3 years? Lol

 

[mulj]

Preface:
I appreciate the premise of this thread very much. No matter how I have been self-critical of Pakistanis and Pakistanis, the one thing that I have always known us to be better at than the Indians is our closer relationship with facts, reality, and critical analysis. Unfortunately, on the last day (yet) of the conflict showed some disturbing trends from our media and general public where I feel like a lot of exaggerations, false-bravados, and propaganda were seen, not as bad but in the same vein as the Indians. I feel VERY STRONGLY that we should NOT become like the Indians in this very important aspect, which is why I really appreciate the creation of this thread. With all of this said, I feel like a lot of people will inevitably do adhominem attacks and call me traitor in the time of war. While I am used to this when I used to call out the military pre-PTI, this will be in a different context, where the whole country is apparently on the same page. I can only request that you please read what I have to say with a cool mind and believe that I do have Pakistan's best interest at heart.

The air-to-air battle:
This happened on the first night and we have essentially undeniable evidence of the losses suffered by IAF at the hands of PAF. Obviously, I wouldn't know exactly why PAF overpowered IAF in this way but I have some theories:
1. The IAF did not expect PAF to shoot at them while they were inside their airspace because PAF did not shoot at them until they crossed or were about to cross in 2019.
2. The PAF has a very well-oiled network-centric doctrine that has been shown to be superior to IAF's slightly hotch-potch doctrine that results from the plethora of systems that they operate.
I feel like PAF has discovered that PAF's best bet is to create panic inside IAF and that is easy to do and creates a favorable situation for PAF.


The drone strikes by India over several nights:
Every night, we would be hit by volleys of all kinds of drones - even target drones. Clearly this was meant to saturate our ADGE and to illicit a response.
1. It is good that we did not activate our main missile defense for hitting them.
2. There was mixed success in EW-based defense against these.
3. I understand that it is nearly impossible to defend against such mass attacks totally effectively.
The mistakes we made:
1. Relying too much on big systems like HQ-16 HQ-9 etc spread over TWO services (PAF PA). It is almost like we were not expecting to deal with drone swarms.
2. Not responding.

Delayed Response: "Time and Place of Our Choosing"
It is exceedingly obvious that in the Indo-Pak theatre mounting defense is tricky. You really have to do offense. Pakistan's failure to respond for days emboldened the Indians to keep terrorizing Pakistani pubic.


Receipts:
The delayed response would be digestable if we actually had receipts for our response. I am sorry but Indians have totally outclassed us in the realm of battle damage assesment. They showed before/after pictures of our bases that will be shared with the world for years. We on the other hand were only able to show videos of radar pictures and everything else was trust me bro. In this day and age it is crucial to have some kind of BDA - as we had in 2019 with the videos using H weapons. Even if someone wants to argue that Pakistan did an amazing response after waiting alot, they cannot because there's no evidence for it.



Key Weakness for Us:
1. Speed of Response: We need to have gameplans and responses preplanned and excercised by units. We can't be caught waiting and doing nothing. Call it restraint or whatever - the delay hurt us.
2. The magnitude of the response: Unfortunately, our response was NOT proportionate - the Indians had been terrorizing us for 3 nights and launched so many Brahmos, Harops, Target drones at us. We only launched some F1 and F2. I understand that we are a poor country that can't afford much, but our response was weak.
3. Ability to give evidence of our response: We need satellites or drones to be part of our response plan because a strike that has no evidence for might as well not have happened.
4. Lack of defense of AFBs against drone swarms - we need cost effective HARD KILL measures against drone swarms that don't rely on using our air defense systems.


People will get angry but I feel that Pakistan's detterence has been greatly damaged if not ruined by this episode. A consequence of this is India will surely repeat something like this, with even more intensity next time something happens on their side and they want some war mongering.

After 2019 our deterrence was solidified, after 2025 our deterrence has been weakened. This begs the question why India did 2025 if 2019 had made such a great detterence? Well,
a. They are kind of beholden to their internal politics too much.
b. The shoot down of so many of their jets really had them out to balance things.
c. They had prepared and improved a LOT since 2019 - they had a whole new strategy this time.

Agree with battle assesment part but you do not have sats and your hands are tied unless china give you army level of access to their own network which i do not know is realistic, second option is to make deal with Turkiye as they are in process building up their own advanced satelite constelation.
Part were i strongly disagree is your deterrence capability, i think it is even more solidified then ever due your air force performance in opening hours due that you limited indians for any eventual future attack with things that you mentioned which are all weaker than proper air attacks and by that you are still in advantage.
WHat is also good for Pakistan your own short comes are cheaper to rectify while you have to tighten up AD they have to reconfigure and change whole air forces in order to come to the point zero like they thought they were before this brief war.