Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Musings]

Look at the title - and look where you are taking the thread.
Next off topic post will result In a ban

 

[FUB]

According to ChatGpt when asked for a hypothetical model of Iran would be if sanctions are lifted. In reality, if the corruption was dealt with, Iran would look much like Russia. In reality, the negotiations with the US would be irrelevant.

Hypothetical Iran (2025): Economic & Educational Outlook Without Sanctions​

Economic Indicators​

Metric	Current Estimate (2025)	Hypothetical Projection (2025)
Nominal GDP	$417.98 billion	$600–$700 billion
GDP (PPP)	$1.6 trillion	$2.0–$2.2 trillion
GDP per Capita (Nominal)	$5,855	$8,000–$9,000
GDP per Capita (PPP)	$16,437	$22,000–$25,000
GDP Growth Rate	Near-zero growth	5%–7% annually

Assumptions: Enhanced oil exports, increased foreign investment, and revitalized trade relations.

---

Industrial & Manufacturing Sector​

Metric	Current Estimate	Hypothetical Projection
Manufacturing Output	$78.5 billion	$120–$150 billion
Automotive Production	1.335 million vehicles	2–2.5 million vehicles

Assumptions: Access to international markets, technology transfer, and foreign partnerships.

---

Higher Education & Human Capital​

Metric	Current Estimate	Hypothetical Projection
Number of Universities	2,183 (2022)	2,000–2,200 (with consolidation)
University Enrollment	Over 4.3 million (2015–2016)	5–6 million
Engineering Graduates Annually	Approximately 233,695	250,000–270,000
PhD Students Enrolled	About 60,000 (2013)	80,000–100,000

Assumptions: Increased educational investment, international collaborations, and improved academic infrastructure.

---

Summary​

With the lifting of sanctions and reintegration into the global economy, Iran could experience significant growth across various sectors:

• 
  
• Economic Growth: Enhanced oil revenues and diversified industries could boost GDP and per capita income.
• 
  
• Industrial Expansion: Access to global markets and technology could revitalize manufacturing and automotive sectors.
• 
  
• Educational Advancement: Increased funding and international partnerships could elevate the quality and reach of higher education.

• 1.​

  
  Even if sanctions were lifted, Iran would still face:
  
  • Corruption and mismanagement
  • Lack of structural reforms
  • Brain drain (high-skilled emigration)
  • State control over large sectors (e.g., IRGC-owned companies)
• 
  These systemic issues limit Iran’s upside, regardless of external conditions.
  
  
  

  ---

  
  

  2.​

  
  Yes, lifting sanctions might:
  
  • Increase oil exports (maybe an extra $50–100 billion/year)
  • Attract some FDI (foreign direct investment)
• 
  But oil is not enough to transform the economy long-term without:
  
  • Private sector liberalization
  • Rule of law
  • Global banking integration
  • Transparent institutions
• 
  

  ---

  
  

  3.​

  
  Iran already produces:
  
  • Over 230,000 engineering graduates/year
  • Millions of university students
• 
  So lifting sanctions might help retain talent and improve quality — but it wouldn’t dramatically increase already high numbers unless the economy could absorb those skills, which brings us back to internal reform.
  
  
  

  ---

  
  

  Compare That to Israel or UAE:​

  
  Countries like Israel or the UAE have:
  
  • Smaller populations
  • Limited natural resources
  • But world-class governance, agility, and openness
• 
  That's why their GDP per capita and innovation output are many times higher than Iran’s — not just because of trade freedom, but because of how well they use it.

• Bottom Line:​

  
  Removing sanctions helps — but without domestic reform, Iran's economic ceiling remains relatively low. If both sanctions were lifted and structural reforms were implemented, then you'd see transformative change.

 

[FUB]

Same question when asked from GROK
It is shocking the number of engineers and STEM graduates currently coming out of the universities.
Side-by-Side Comparison: Iran 2024 (Sanctioned) vs. Hypothetical 2030 (Sanctions Lifted in 2025)
1. GDP (Nominal and PPP)

• 2024 (Sanctioned):
  
  • Nominal GDP: ~$434 billion (IMF estimate, 2024).
  • PPP GDP: ~$1.6 trillion (World Bank/IMF estimates, 2024).
  • Growth Rate: 3.7% real GDP growth (IMF, fiscal year ending March 2025), driven by limited oil exports (1.5–2 mbpd) and loose sanctions enforcement.
  • Constraints: Sanctions cap oil exports, reduce FDI (~80% drop from 2011–2021), and restrict financial access, limiting growth potential.
  • Nominal GDP: $1.2–1.4 trillion. Assumes 6–8% annual real GDP growth from 2025–2030, driven by restored oil exports (4–5 mbpd), FDI ($30–40 billion/year, comparable to Turkey’s 2000s boom), and non-oil exports (petrochemicals, steel, tech). This aligns with Iran’s 6%+ growth during 2016–2018 JCPOA relief, sustained over five years.
  • PPP GDP: $3.0–3.5 trillion, reflecting higher productivity, infrastructure investment, and global integration, approaching economies like Turkey ($2.7 trillion PPP, 2023) or Indonesia (~$4.7 trillion PPP, 2024).
  • Growth Drivers: Full oil/gas export capacity (~$120–150 billion/year at $80–100/barrel), diversified exports (e.g., petrochemicals ~$60 billion), and infrastructure upgrades ($200–300 billion invested in energy, transport). Moderate reforms (e.g., reduced corruption, privatization) sustain growth.
  • Constraints: Internal mismanagement (e.g., bonyads controlling ~30% of spending) and geopolitical risks (e.g., tensions with Israel, US) could slow FDI and trade.

2. GDP Per Capita

• 2024 (Sanctioned):
  
  • Nominal: ~$5,013 (IMF, 2024).
  • PPP: ~$18,000–19,000, down from $19,000 in 2011 due to sanctions-driven stagnation.
  • Challenges: High inflation (40% annually), currency devaluation (rial at ~600,000:1 USD), and unemployment (8–10%, youth >20%) erode living standards.
  • Nominal: $13,000–15,000, reflecting higher GDP and population (90 million by 2030).
  • PPP: $33,000–38,000, approaching levels of Malaysia ($39,000 PPP, 2023) or pre-sanctions Iran adjusted for growth.
  • Drivers: Increased oil revenues ($1,500/capita annually), non-oil sector growth (tech, manufacturing), and lower inflation (8–12% with global financial access). Unemployment drops to ~6–8%, with youth unemployment at ~10%.
  • Improvements: Higher wages, reduced poverty (~10% below poverty line vs. 30% in 2024), and improved public services boost purchasing power.

3. Education

• 2024 (Sanctioned):
  
  • Overview: ~90% literacy, ~7 million higher education students, ~1.5 million university graduates annually, including ~300,000 in STEM.
  • Universities: Top institutions (Sharif University, University of Tehran) rank in global top 400 (QS 2024). ~3,500 higher education institutions.
  • Graduate Students: ~800,000 enrolled, ~100,000 in PhD programs.
  • Challenges: Brain drain (150,000 skilled professionals emigrate annually), underfunded universities (1.5% of GDP), and limited global collaboration.
  • Overview: Education system expands with 95% literacy, ~8–9 million students, and ~2 million graduates annually, including ~600,000 in STEM, driven by increased funding (3% of GDP) and global partnerships.
  • Universities: Top universities rise to top 150–200 globally (e.g., Sharif, Tehran) with access to research networks, equipment, and faculty exchanges. International campuses (e.g., EU/Asian partnerships) and new private universities emerge.
  • Graduate Students: ~1.2 million enrolled, ~200,000 in PhD programs, reflecting demand for advanced skills in AI, engineering, and biotech.
  • Improvements: Brain drain reduced to 50,000/year (70% drop), with reverse migration as professionals return. Global academic collaborations (e.g., Horizon Europe, Chinese universities) enhance R&D output.

4. Industrial Output

• 2024 (Sanctioned):
  
  • Overview: Industrial sector (manufacturing, mining) contributes 36% to GDP ($156 billion). Key outputs: steel (30 million tons, 3rd globally), cement, petrochemicals, autos (1 million vehicles).
  • Constraints: Sanctions limit access to intermediate goods, technology, and capital. Power shortages cost ~$80 billion/year (20% GDP).
    • Oil: ~3.3 mbpd production, ~1.5 mbpd exports (mostly China).
    • Chemicals/Petrochemicals: ~$20 billion in exports, constrained by sanctions.
    • Power Plants: ~90 GW capacity, with outages due to underinvestment.
    • Armaments: Self-sufficient in missiles, drones; exports to allies (e.g., Russia).
  • Example Company (MAPNA): Produces ~60% of Iran’s electricity equipment but faces supply chain issues due to sanctions.
  • Overview: Industrial output rises to $450–500 billion (40% of GDP), with 8–10% annual growth, driven by FDI ($150 billion total, 2025–2030), technology transfers, and export markets (EU, Asia, MENA).
    • Oil: ~5–6 mbpd production, ~4 mbpd exports, generating ~$150 billion/year at $80–100/barrel. New fields (e.g., South Pars) fully developed with foreign partners (e.g., Total, CNPC).
    • Chemicals/Petrochemicals: ~$60–80 billion in exports, with new plants and global market share (e.g., methanol, ammonia). Partnerships with BASF, SABIC.
    • Power Plants: ~150 GW capacity, with modernized grids, ~10% renewable (solar, wind). Outages eliminated via $50 billion investment.
    • Armaments: Shift to dual-use tech (aerospace, electronics), with civilian applications (e.g., satellite tech). Exports to non-sanctioned markets (~$5 billion/year).
  • Example Company (MAPNA): Regional leader, exporting turbines, rail systems, and power equipment (~$15–20 billion revenue). Joint ventures with Siemens, GE; builds 20 GW/year, including renewables.

5. Technology

• 2024 (Sanctioned):
  
  • Overview: Tech sector 2% of GDP ($8–10 billion). Focus on domestic platforms (e.g., Digikala, Aparat), cybersecurity, and military tech (drones, missiles).
  • Challenges: Sanctions block access to semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, and global tech markets. E-commerce ~$1.5 billion, projected to $2.32 billion by 2029.
  • Engineers: 500,000 active, ~100,000 new graduates/year. High brain drain (30%).
  • Overview: Tech sector 8–10% of GDP ($100–140 billion), with growth in AI, fintech, biotech, and renewables. E-commerce ~$15–20 billion, driven by global platforms and domestic startups.
  • Improvements: Access to 5G, semiconductors, and cloud infrastructure enables tech hubs (e.g., Tehran, Isfahan). FDI from US/EU/China (~$20 billion) supports startups. Iran develops regional AI models and cybersecurity firms.
  • Engineers: ~1 million active, ~200,000 new graduates/year. Brain drain drops to ~5%, with ~100,000 professionals returning by 2030.

6. Life Expectancy

• 2024 (Sanctioned):
  
  • Overview: ~76 years (men: ~74, women: ~78), high for a sanctioned economy, due to universal healthcare and education.
  • Challenges: Sanctions limit advanced medical equipment and drugs, increasing chronic disease mortality. Poverty (~30%) strains health outcomes.
  • Overview: 80–82 years, approaching developed nations, with healthcare investment (10% of GDP), better nutrition, and global medical tech access.
  • Improvements: Poverty drops to 5–10%, advanced drugs/equipment (e.g., cancer, cardiovascular) reduce mortality. New hospitals and medical tourism ($2 billion/year) emerge.

---

Hypothetical Model Assumptions (2030)

1. Sanctions Lifted in 2025: Full relief restores oil exports, FDI, and financial access (e.g., SWIFT). Iran integrates into global trade by 2026.
2. Sustained Growth: 6–8% annual real GDP growth, driven by oil (40% of exports), non-oil sectors (60%), and infrastructure investment ($300–400 billion, 2025–2030).
3. Structural Reforms: Moderate progress in reducing corruption, privatizing state firms, and streamlining bonyads, though inefficiencies persist.
4. Global Integration: Trade agreements with EU, China, India, and ASEAN boost exports. Iran joins WTO by 2028, enhancing market access.
5. Oil Prices: Stable at $80–100/barrel, supporting revenues. Non-oil exports (petrochemicals, tech, steel) reduce oil dependency to ~30% of GDP.
6. Human Capital: Iran leverages its educated workforce (~8–9 million students, 95% literacy) to drive tech, engineering, and manufacturing.
7. Comparator Economies: Growth mirrors Turkey (2002–2010, ~7% annually) and Malaysia (1990s, ~8%), adjusted for Iran’s larger population and resource wealth.

Key Impacts of Five Years Without Sanctions

• Economic Scale: GDP triples from 2024 sanctioned levels, positioning Iran as a top 15 global economy (nominal) and top 10 (PPP).
• Industrial Diversification: Non-oil sectors (petrochemicals, tech, manufacturing) contribute ~60% of GDP, reducing oil dependency. MAPNA and similar firms become regional leaders.
• Human Capital: Education and tech sectors thrive, with reduced brain drain and returning talent driving innovation. ~1 million engineers support industrial and tech growth.
• Living Standards: GDP per capita doubles, poverty plummets, and life expectancy rises, aligning Iran closer to upper-middle-income nations (e.g., Malaysia, Turkey).

Limitations of the Model

• Internal Constraints: Persistent corruption, bonyads, and bureaucratic inefficiencies could cap growth at 5–6% annually if reforms stall.
• Geopolitical Risks: Tensions with Israel, US, or Gulf states could deter FDI (~20–30% reduction) and disrupt trade routes.
• Global Market Risks: Oil price volatility or global recession could cut revenues, though diversified exports mitigate this.
• Data Gaps: Projections rely on 2024 data and historical trends, with assumptions for tech and non-oil sector growth due to limited real-time data.

---

Summary Table

Category	2024 (Sanctioned)	2030 (Hypothetical, Sanctions Lifted 2025)
Nominal GDP	~$434 billion	~$1.2–1.4 trillion
PPP GDP	~$1.6 trillion	~$3.0–3.5 trillion
GDP Per Capita (Nominal)	~$5,013	~$13,000–15,000
GDP Per Capita (PPP)	~$18,000–19,000	~$33,000–38,000
Real GDP Growth	~3.7%	~6–8% (2025–2030 average)
Education (STEM Graduates)	~300,000/year	~600,000/year
Universities (Top Rank)	Top 400 (Sharif)	Top 150–200 (Sharif, Tehran)
Graduate Students	~800,000 (100,000 PhD)	~1.2 million (200,000 PhD)
Industrial Output	~$156 billion (36% GDP)	~$450–500 billion (40% GDP)
Oil Production	~3.3 mbpd (1.5 mbpd exports)	~5–6 mbpd (4 mbpd exports)
Petrochemical Exports	~$20 billion	~$60–80 billion
Power Capacity	~90 GW (outages)	~150 GW (stable, 10% renewable)
Armaments	Self-sufficient, missile/drones	Dual-use tech, civilian focus (~$5 billion)
MAPNA (Example)	~60% of power equipment, constrained	Regional leader, $15–20 billion revenue
Tech Sector	~$8–10 billion (2% GDP)	~$100–140 billion (8–10% GDP)
Engineers	~500,000 (30% brain drain)	~1 million (5% brain drain)
Life Expectancy	~76 years	~80–82 years

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Key Differences: 2024 Hypothetical vs. 2030 Hypothetical

• 2024 Hypothetical (Sanctions Lifted): Assumed immediate relief post-2015, with ~$700–800 billion nominal GDP and ~$2.2–2.5 trillion PPP by 2024. Growth was constrained by shorter integration time and partial reforms.
• 2030 Hypothetical (Sanctions Lifted 2025): Five years of growth (2025–2030) doubles nominal GDP to $1.2–1.4 trillion and PPP to $3.0–3.5 trillion. Sustained FDI, infrastructure investment, and non-oil sector expansion (tech, petrochemicals) drive higher diversification and living standards.
• Education/Tech Leap: By 2030, Iran’s tech sector grows 10–15x from 2024 sanctioned levels, with ~1 million engineers and global tech hubs. Education output doubles in STEM, with top universities in global top 150–200.
• Industrial Scale: Oil production reaches 5–6 mbpd, petrochemical exports triple, and power capacity rises 67%, eliminating outages. MAPNA scales to a $15–20 billion firm, rivaling regional giants.
• Social Gains: Life expectancy rises to 80–82 years, and GDP per capita doubles, reducing poverty to ~5–10% and aligning Iran with upper-middle-income nations.

Iran is among the top countries globally for producing engineering graduates, both in absolute numbers and relative to its population. Here’s a detailed breakdown based on available data:

• Engineering Graduate Output:
  • Iran produces approximately 300,000 STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) graduates annually, with ~100,000–150,000 specifically in engineering disciplines (e.g., mechanical, electrical, civil, chemical, and computer engineering). This estimate comes from UNESCO data (2023) and Iran’s Ministry of Science, Research, and Technology (2024).
  • With a population of 88 million, Iran graduates **1,700–2,000 engineers per million people**, placing it among global leaders like China (2,000–2,500 per million), India (1,500–2,000 per million), and Russia (2,000 per million). For comparison, the United States produces ~400–500 engineers per million (150,000 annually for a 340 million population).
  • Iran’s higher education system, with ~3,500 institutions and 7 million students (2023), emphasizes STEM fields, with ~40% of university graduates in technical disciplines, one of the highest proportions globally.
• Global Ranking:
  • Iran ranks in the top 5–10 countries for total engineering graduates, alongside China (1.8 million STEM graduates/year), India (1.5 million), Russia (300,000), and the US (150,000). Exact rankings vary by definition (e.g., STEM vs. pure engineering) and data source (UNESCO, World Bank, national statistics).
  • Per capita, Iran competes with smaller nations like South Korea (2,500 per million) and Taiwan (2,000 per million), which have highly technical economies.
  • Iran’s focus on engineering education stems from post-1979 policies prioritizing self-sufficiency in industry, energy, and defense, reinforced by sanctions that necessitated domestic technical expertise.
• Quality and Challenges:
  • Top universities like Sharif University of Technology, University of Tehran, and Amirkabir University rank in the global top 400 (QS 2024) for engineering and produce world-class graduates. Sharif, for example, is a regional leader in computer science and mechanical engineering.
  • However, challenges include brain drain (30% of engineers emigrate annually, ~150,000 skilled professionals), underfunded universities (1.5% of GDP vs. 3% in developed nations), and limited access to cutting-edge tech due to sanctions.
  • Despite these, Iran’s engineers contribute to high-impact fields like nanotechnology (7th globally in publications, 2023), aerospace (domestic satellite launches), and cybersecurity (advanced domestic platforms).
• Iran’s large pool of engineers is a key factor in its resilience against sanctions, despite rampant corruption. Below, I analyze how this contributes and other factors at play:
  How Engineers Drive Resilience
  1. Self-Sufficiency in Critical Sectors:
     • Oil and Gas: Iran maintains ~3.3 million barrels per day (mbpd) of oil production and ranks 3rd globally in gas reserves, largely due to domestic engineering expertise. Companies like MAPNA design and produce ~60% of Iran’s power generation equipment, including turbines, despite sanctions blocking foreign tech.
     • Petrochemicals: Iran exports ~$20 billion in petrochemicals (2024), with engineers developing workarounds for sanctioned equipment (e.g., reverse-engineering compressors).
     • Defense: Iran’s self-sufficiency in missiles, drones, and cybersecurity (e.g., exports to Russia) relies on ~500,000 active engineers, many trained domestically. This mitigates sanctions by enabling military and economic leverage.
     • Power and Infrastructure: Despite outages, Iran’s ~90 GW power capacity and steel production (3rd globally, ~30 million tons) are sustained by local engineers, who adapt to limited spare parts and tech.
  2. Innovation Under Constraints:
     • Sanctions have forced Iran to develop indigenous solutions, such as domestic internet platforms (e.g., Aparat, Digikala) and cybersecurity systems. Engineers trained in top universities fill gaps left by restricted access to global tech (e.g., semiconductors, cloud infrastructure “‘).
     • Iran ranks high in scientific output (15th globally for publications, 2023) and patents in fields like nanotechnology and biotech, driven by graduate students (~800,000, including 100,000 PhDs) and engineers.
  3. Human Capital as a Buffer:
     • Iran’s 90% literacy rate and 7 million higher education students (2023) create a deep talent pool. Even with brain drain, ~500,000 active engineers sustain industries, from autos (1 million vehicles/year) to construction.
     • The education system’s focus on STEM ensures a steady supply of talent, enabling Iran to maintain industrial output (~36% of GDP, $156 billion) despite sanctions cutting FDI by ~80% (2011–2021).
• Role of Corruption and Other Factors
  • Impact of Corruption:
    • Corruption (Iran ranks 149/180 on Transparency International’s 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index) diverts resources, with bonyads (state-linked foundations) controlling ~30% of spending, often inefficiently. This inflates costs (e.g., infrastructure projects) and fuels brain drain, as engineers seek better opportunities abroad.
    • Mismanagement exacerbates sanctions’ effects, with 40% annual inflation and currency devaluation (rial ~600,000:1 USD) eroding engineers’ salaries and living standards (30% below poverty line).
    • Despite this, corruption has not crippled resilience because engineers work within parallel systems (e.g., state firms, IRGC-linked projects) that prioritize strategic sectors (oil, defense), ensuring output even amid inefficiencies.
  • Other Resilience Factors:
    • Oil and Gas Wealth: Iran’s 10% of global oil reserves and 17% of gas reserves provide revenue ($50–60 billion/year, 2024), even with limited exports (~1.5 mbpd). This funds critical industries and subsidies, cushioning sanctions’ impact.
    • Diversified Economy: Non-oil sectors (petrochemicals, steel, agriculture) contribute ~60% of GDP, reducing oil dependency. Engineers enable this diversification, e.g., through ~$20 billion in petrochemical exports.
    • Geopolitical Alliances: Trade with China, Russia, and Turkey (~$30 billion in non-oil trade, 2024) bypasses sanctions, with engineers facilitating deals (e.g., drone exports, gas pipelines).
    • Cultural and Institutional Factors: Iran’s post-1979 emphasis on self-reliance, rooted in revolutionary ideology, drives investment in education and industry. The IRGC and state firms, while corrupt, provide structure for engineers to operate in strategic sectors.
• Why Engineers Are Central
  • Quantity and Quality: Iran’s ~100,000–150,000 new engineers annually (and ~500,000 active) ensure a critical mass to sustain industries, even with brain drain and corruption. Top graduates from Sharif and Amirkabir rival peers in developed nations, enabling innovation under sanctions.
  • Adaptability: Engineers’ ability to reverse-engineer, localize tech, and develop domestic alternatives (e.g., drones, turbines) directly counters sanctions’ technological isolation.
  • Economic Impact: The engineering workforce supports ~36% of GDP through industry and sustains Iran’s global rankings in steel, petrochemicals, and nanotechnology, mitigating sanctions’ economic toll.
• Counterpoints and Limitations
  • Brain Drain: 30% of engineers emigrating annually (50,000) limits potential. Without sanctions, retention could double the workforce’s impact, as seen in the hypothetical 2030 model (~1 million engineers, 5% brain drain).
  • Corruption’s Drag: Inefficiencies waste ~20–30% of industrial budgets, forcing engineers to work in suboptimal conditions (e.g., outdated equipment, power outages costing $80 billion/year).
  • Sanctions’ Severity: While engineers mitigate technological gaps, sanctions still cap oil exports (~1.5 vs. 4 mbpd potential) and FDI, limiting scale. Resilience is strong but not optimal.
• Conclusion
  Iran’s status as a top producer of engineering graduates (~100,000–150,000/year, ~1,700–2,000 per million) is a primary driver of its resilience against sanctions. Engineers sustain critical sectors (oil, petrochemicals, defense, power), innovate under constraints, and support ~36% of GDP, despite challenges like brain drain and corruption. Corruption diverts resources and fuels emigration, but Iran’s oil wealth, diversified economy, and geopolitical alliances complement its engineering talent, enabling survival under sanctions. Without sanctions, as modeled for 2030, Iran’s engineering workforce could drive a $1.2–1.4 trillion economy, with ~1 million engineers and minimal brain drain, highlighting their pivotal role.

 

[FUB]

We hope to see a mushroom cloud soon.

 

[Persian Gulf]

They don't want a deal. They want to give the impression that they were willing to negotiate but Iran would not be reasonable leaving the U.S no choice but to have to attack militarily. This is all laid out in the Brookings institute paper, "which path to Persia" published in 2009.

I don't think they want to attack. Trump recently spoke about maximum pressure not military action.

I don't know why we continue to send Araghchi for negotiations when the US has made its position public and very clear.

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[ShapurII]

I am perplexed by Rubio and Witkoff's push for zero enrichment. It is a non-starter that will close the window of opportunity that currently exists with few prospects of reopening it.

Even if this is a negotiating strategy and the real red line is different, then that should be handled at the negotiating table rather than in public. Negotiating in public is not conducive to success.

Iran has never agreed to completely end enrichment, even temporarily. They know that restarting the enrichment will be extremely costly politically, even if the agreement is broken by the US. This would amount to them giving up their main leverage in return for a promise of a reward down the road.

Not only are they starting with zero trust in the US, they also saw what happened to Hamas. Netanyahu broke the ceasefire agreement after Phase I and faced no consequences from the US for sabotaging Phase II and III. The release of the American hostages was reportedly made in return for promises by the US to press Netanyahu for a ceasefire afterward, but that does not seem to be happening. Instead, Netanyahu is launching a major ground offensive into Gaza.

So the idea that the Iranians would give up their main leverage in the hope that there will be reciprocity down the road assumes a degree of Iranian trust and confidence in the US that frankly has not existed for the past 45 years. Promises of primary sanctions relief do not sufficiently change that picture.

Bottom line - the zero enrichment goal was Bolton and Pompeo's objective precisely because they knew it would lead to war. That remains true today.

Source: Trita Parsi

The truth is that Iran's true leverage is our current stockpile of uranium, which should be increased and accumulated as much as possible until we reach an agreement.

The Trump administration should pick one:
1. Get the current stockpile of HEU out of Iran
2. Enforce zero enrichment policy for a period of time

I personally think that keeping our current stockpile of HEU inside Iran is far, far more important than the issue of uranium enrichment.
If the US agrees to the stockpile remaining inside Iranian territory, I think a temporary stop in uranium enrichment (3 years) is a pretty good compensation in return for that.

 

[Persian Gulf]

The truth is that Iran's true leverage is our current stockpile of uranium, which should be increased and accumulated as much as possible until we reach an agreement.

The Trump administration should pick one:
1. Get the current stockpile of HEU out of Iran
2. Enforce zero enrichment policy for a period of time

I personally think that keeping our current stockpile of HEU inside Iran is far, far more important than the issue of uranium enrichment.
If the US agrees to the stockpile remaining inside Iranian territory, I think a temporary stop in uranium enrichment (3 years) is a pretty good compensation in return for that.

the US will not accept that either

our leverage:

- moving HEU across multiple undeclared sites to make it impossible to destroy. we have to do this BEFORE military strikes. ideally we do it now
- leaving NPT (if snapback is imposed)

not much else

 

[ShapurII]

the US will not accept that either

our leverage:

- moving HEU across multiple undeclared sites to make it impossible to destroy. we have to do this BEFORE military strikes. ideally we do it now
- leaving NPT (if snapback is imposed)

not much else

We can't move even a gram of our enriched uranium without the IAEA noticing that. We should first kick out all IAEA inspectors and turn off all the cameras before we do that. And that is no different from officially leaving the NPT.

We are in a tough situation. And we are in this situation because the regime has chosen not to build nukes.

 

[Persian Gulf]

We can't move even a gram of our enriched uranium without the IAEA noticing that. We should first kick out all IAEA inspectors and turn off all the cameras before we do that. And that is no different from officially leaving the NPT.

We are in a tough situation. And we are in this situation because the regime has chosen not to build nukes.

they can notice it, but they can't stop it. and the camera only work inside the facilities.

Shamkhani (I think) mentioned we will move our uranium to dozens of sites if we need to. we can do this overtly (we have to).

 

[Persian Gulf]

Iranian FM Araghchi: No matter how much they repeat it, we’ll still continue enrichment.

Responding to the White House press statement calling Iranian enrichment a red line, Iran's FM says, “No matter how much they repeat it, our positions won't change. Our stance is clear: we will continue enrichment."

 

[Persian Gulf]

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[battalion25]

When Israel goes to war, it doesn't go slowly or to set redlines, it goes all out to overwhelm and DEFEAT the enemy before it has a chance to organise itself

Iran must prepare to sustain multiple unexpected blows simultaneously

missile cities must be decentralised with contingency measures for loss of contact with leadership and unexpected forms of sabotage

EO seeker enables < 10m accuracy but makes missile easier to intercept in late stages

--> use old stockpile of 1000+ Shahab-3 / Ghadr / Rezvan aimed at counter value targets (cities) to deplete ABM interceptor stockpile. no point aiming at empty air fields as Israel will opt to preserve interceptors to protect cities. force them to use their interceptors or sustain huge losses. these missiles have large warheads (500kg+) and high impact velocity and can do serious damage at the right sites even with low CEP.

--> once ABM inventory has been sufficiently degraded, fire 200-300 KS/HQ missiles with EO seekers per day to do real damage and devastate their military industry (IAI, Elbit, MoD, Mossad, IDF HQ, etc), and air bases (100 accurate hits can do SERIOUS damage to even a large air base like Nevatim). can use missiles with penetrator warhead (we saw a model of this recently) and EO seeker to try to take out the hardened F-35 shelters.

--> follow up with strikes against electricity and desalination plants (these are heavily concentrated and large sites and there are not many of them - even with <500m CEP, Sejjil and Emad can be effective against these large targets)

the goal must be to overwhelm Israel with non-stop and well-executed sequential missile barrages to keep them in disarray. ideally all of this would happen in < 7 days before they can bring in reinforcements or get organised.

at the same time, 60% HEU stockpile must be immediately distributed across a number of secret underground sites and weaponised immediately to prevent Israel from resorting to nuclear strikes

All that is non-existential my brother. Let me correct you here gentle!

An Israeli-Iranian war is not realistic on paper at all outside of tit for tat irrelevant strikes outside of that it is basically hoax.

Also all these strikes for tit and tat does is very very minor limited damaged on both sides to the degree it is almost irrelevant.

It´s not only Israel that goes hard in wars it´s basically everyone that fights a war also an Israeli-Iranian war is not conventionally equal battlefield as there is scale in conventional conflicts. Conventioinal war in the modern era is super tough and most people don´t realize until they are actully caught up in one.

Example Israel has been fighting Gaza a city with little bit under 2 million people that would be equal to like fighting only Tabriz in Iran forget Shiraz, Karaj, Isfahan, Mashdad or Tehren.

In such a conventional engagement would be a one-way ticket they don´t have the manpower to threaten Iran conventionally. You can´t just go head first into a Nation with over 85 million population for a tiny country like Israel.

Currently they have mobilized their last reserve back-ups, took these from the northern theatre and brought them all into Gaza if this wave is beaten down back they have not much to shoot with as Gaza is a tough nut to crack they are stubborn hence the Aid blockade because they can´t seem to move Hamas conventionally and it has become a meatgrinder I was reading an article saying that over 70.000+ IDF are injured and not fit to combat just from the Gaza war and as for the losses they took in KIA it´s around 50.000 and they are experiencing recruitment crisis.

Israel will never fight conventionally an opponent outside of their weightclass and not to forget Israel will never fight Iran they will sit it out. If Iran was to go to war it would most likely be the US or regional nations of it´s same measurement size.

If the US wants an Invasion on Iran they would first start gathering willing alliance and then move into Iran from Iraq but that is the only way. Because without a corridor is there no war.

There is a certain calculations when it comes to conventional conflict and most of the modern once tend to drag out and turn into meatgrinders and opponents have to outlast each other and they all follow the same pattern.

Example: The Syrian war (The Rebels vs SAA, Russia and other miliitias) Lasted for 10 years of none-stop action if we exclude the 4 year ceasefire.

The Russo-Ukrainian war - going into the 4th year soon and many more years to come

The American-Afghan war - Lasted for 20 years and one of the longest wars in human history.

Yemen Civil war - Lasted for 7 years none-stop action and could have gone on for another decade.

Myannmar war - Entering it´s 5th year and this one has atleast another 2 decades left to go

Hamas-Israel war - Entering it´s 2nd year and I predict it will go all the way to 2026 reaching 3 years in total right before the Israeli election

Israel is a tiny land in truth and won´t be a chellenge overrunning it in the future either by anyone who would be the adventurer who wants it.

Tho overrunning Europe conventionally would be a very hard nut to crack if anyone was to attempt and it would even be very very tough for a very very large alliance to do it that includes China, Russia and everyone else because they have industrial base, won´t run out of manpower and can reproduce war material within the war and could take probably 2-3 decades of war to beat them

 

[OldTwilight]

And only 1 runway was put out of operation, that is the design advantage of such a design for an airbase. ie multi-runway.

no , ballistic missiles with conventional warheads are useless against military targets

 

[ShapurII]

they can notice it, but they can't stop it. and the camera only work inside the facilities.

Shamkhani (I think) mentioned we will move our uranium to dozens of sites if we need to. we can do this overtly (we have to).

Do not underestimate the intelligence community in the US. The moment they notice that is happening, they will activate all tools at their disposal (satellites, spies within the system, all latent espionage capabilities they have prepared for this day such as Stuxnet and God knows what other hardware and software backdoors they have).

Shamkhani said we would do that in case that they attack us. If you look at the threats of IR officials, it's always about how we will react if they attack us.
The moment we start to move our HEU, the chance of pre-emptive war will be 99.9%. And the regime seems to be avoiding that at all costs, which is a good decision but we should've never reached this point in the first place.

The regime had over 30 years since early 1990s to build a nuke, and they got really close to it, but Khamenei chose to stop our nuclear and ICBM programs and now we are at this point where we badly need deterrence and some real cards for negotiations but the time is running out and we're pinned down. The worst part is that all of this could be easily predicted. They should've used the Biden administration as an opportunity to build and test nukes.
I really wish I was wrong about Khamenei and he was some sort of genius who could play the West, but the truth seems to be completely different. We need a Mirza Reza Kermani to take care of Khamenei and people like Zarif and Rohani. The damage they have done to the country takes a really long time to be fixed.

We can produce copper-gas lasers in Iran. We have had access to laser isotope separation in Iran since the time of the Shah. We have previously done this at Lashkar Abad with success. If the system Khamenei has left us with wasn't so full of spies and treasonous cunts, we must've been able to run a successful covert program for decades.

 

[Kyussis]

no , ballistic missiles with conventional warheads are useless against military targets

They are not useless, by far!