Iran Foreign Policy and Doctrine

[LittleFish]

Your investments are low because you prefer to trade with the US for the obvious fact that the US economy is clearly a much superior option and if you trade with Iran, you will be targeted by US secondary sanctions.

We had paid dearly when you sold ZTE to US, which destroyed the confidence of Chinese firms to invest in Iran. BTW, quite a number of your Revolution Guards elites see Chinese investment in infrastructure as a threat to their benefit, which blocks further investment.

 

[ShapurII]

Okay, if you think buying your oil despite the pressure from the West can’t be counted
as supporting you, then I have nothing to say. There’re plenty of oil sellers in the world, but big buyers dare to buy your oil are rare. If there is no discount, why should we take the risk to buy yours? Russia is under the same sanction as Iran, and only China and India dare to buy their oil, of course with discount.

We're talking about 2-3 billion dollars of profit each year, at the minimum, assuming a 10% discount for 700,000 barrels per day, which is accepted even by hardliners inside in Iran. Opposition groups outside of Iran even claim discount figures as high as 50%. In that case, which I personally disagree with, it will add up to 10-15 billion dollars per year.

So, this answers your question about why you buy from us, instead of other oil sellers. Also, your refineries have to be modified to process oil from other exporters. It's not hard to do that, but it's still one of the reasons why some refineries in China prefer to use Iranian oil.

But the question is, why did we reach this point? Didn't China and Russia allow 4 rounds of UNSC resolutions to be passed on Iran for absolutely no reason? Didn't China and Russia fail to materialize their obligations under the JCPOA after the US pulled out of the deal in 2018? So, your argument in no ways rejects what I said about China and Russia preferring the status quo for Iran.

BTW, I’d like to remind you that in recent years most of sold cars have been electrical in China, only a few people would like to buy oil-cars, and second-hand oil-cars are just like rubbish in price——you buy an oil-car for 100k, and after 2 years you can’t even sell it for 30k! Oil is becoming less and less needed for us, while oil fields are being discovered here and there. You can see GCC countries trying their best to expand their share of crude import of China, since US is emerging to be the biggest oil seller. Oil is not dollar, you can’t put it in the bank and expect to get interest, if you don’t sell it, others do.

The fact that oil continues to be traded at $60-$70 per barrel is a strong indicator that oil is still quite relevant today. Green sources for generating electricity are still far from being enough to completely eradicate fossil fuels. So, most electrical cars still indirectly depend on fossil fuels. I'm not talking about China, but the world in general. Other than that, fossil fuels continue to be the main reason for the US dollar dominance. So, oil is not dollar. It is more important than dollar. Energy is more important than fiat currency.

Iran is not only a country blessed with huge oil reserves, but we are the world's first/second largest holder of natural gas reserves. Add to this other precious metals, rare elements and helium reserves.

I'd like to remind you that China will very soon regret the way it has been dealing with Iran in recent years. Why? Here's why:

There are three scenarios for Iran in the near future (less than 10 years):
1. Regime change: The US and Europe finally succeed to execute their dream of regime change in Iran. Internal dissatisfaction with the system is extremely high. In this scenario, Iran will most likely become a US satellite state that will have to heavily reduce her ties with China, or may even go against China's interests. Just like the Shah of Iran and the Soviets. A 180-degree turn from the current situation.
2. Rapprochement with the US: In this case, Iran will no longer need China and Russia as much as now. Again, a serious blow to China-Iran relations because the US is widely preferred to China by nearly everyone in Iran, and around the world. Honestly, Iran isn't alone in this. Take a poll anywhere in the Middle East, or the rest of the world, and see if people prefer to form an alliance with China or the US.
3. Status quo is kept: Khamenei will remain in power, negotiations with the West will fail and everything remains the same. Still, Khamenei turned 86 last month. He has had prostate cancer in the past. He has lost his most trusted friends (Soleimani and President Raeesi) and he has never felt lonelier in the political atmosphere in Iran. Whoever replaces Khamenei will be forced to mend our ties with the West, because that's what over 80% of Iranians inside and outside Iran want and the reformist camp has gained power due to the assassinations of Khamenei's inner circle. So, we're back to option two, in the most optimistic scenario.

 

[ShapurII]

Don’t you think the biggest reason for status quo is your incapability in making nukes? North Korea did it despite disastrous economy and heavy sanctions. China made nukes with very limited conditions.

The last chance for Iran to detonate the first bomb was right after Soleimani got killed, but you wasted it and just fired missiles to US bases making some meaningless craters.

It's not technical incapability. It's political incapability by sellouts like Khamenei who serves the neo-commie bloc.

We had paid dearly when you sold ZTE to US, which destroyed the confidence of Chinese firms to invest in Iran. BTW, quite a number of your Revolution Guards elites see Chinese investment in infrastructure as a threat to their benefit, which blocks further investment.

You paid dearly for that? Good. Finally you paid some price for leaching off of Iran's situation. Easy profit requires risk. You betrayed Iran 4 times by passing 4 rounds of UN Security Council sanctions on Iran for absolutely no reason, when you had huge investments in Iran and were given mega projects inside Iran. Then you let Iran down when the US pulled out of the JCPOA and you failed to meet all of your obligations in the deal. So, if that destroyed the confidence of Chinese firms (who would sell their a$$ for money anyway), then good.

 

[LittleFish]

I'm not sure if it was you or some other Chinese member here, but when your countrymen were angry and saying things that China should do this or do that to counter the US globally, I clearly said that China would not challenge the US and either wait out Trump or reach a temporary agreement with the US for now. And a few weeks after that, the US and China reached a settlement over the trade war, as expected.

Exactly. We are yet ready to take the place of US, and there must be someone to maintain the order, so temporarily a status quo is fine for both sides

 

[ShapurII]

Exactly. We are yet ready to take the place of US, and there must be someone to maintain the order, so temporarily a status quo is fine for both sides

And I'm absolutely OK with that. My comments are not directed at China for taking advantage of the situation, but rather at the Iranian leadership that has cornered us and put us in this situation for others to take advantage of us. And most of this has happened because of corruption and idiocy.

 

[LittleFish]

We're talking about 2-3 billion dollars of profit each year, at the minimum, assuming a 10% discount for 700,000 barrels per day, which is accepted even by hardliners inside in Iran. Opposition groups outside of Iran even claim discount figures as high as 50%. In that case, which I personally disagree with, it will add up to 10-15 billion dollars per year.

So, this answers your question about why you buy from us, instead of other oil sellers. Also, your refineries have to be modified to process oil from other exporters. It's not hard to do that, but it's still one of the reasons why some refineries in China prefer to use Iranian oil.

So why don't other countries earn such a greater number of money? Because they know they would lose more if they get sanctioned, which creates a buyer-dominated market for your oil. If you think it is not fair, then let the oil stay in the field, but clearly you choose to sell anyway, so don't complain the price as you recognize the situation.

But the question is, why did we reach this point? Didn't China and Russia allow 4 rounds of UNSC resolutions to be passed on Iran for absolutely no reason? Didn't China and Russia fail to materialize their obligations under the JCPOA after the US pulled out of the deal in 2018? So, your argument in no ways rejects what I said about China and Russia preferring the status quo for Iran.

So what had Iran done after Obama removed the sanctions? Sell oil without restictions, and give the money to Assad, Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas and Iraqi millitants, without investing much on your own. Yes, you did revive Persia Empire, made GCC and Israel pissed in their pants, but only temporarily. How could we support you as the whole Arab world would definitely try their best to oppose? China used to "export revolution" as you did, paid dearly and only got nothing but betrayal and sanctions. Our diplomats used to persuade you, but no use. After pro-Zionist Trump came in power and broke up the deal, hard time went back for you. So why blame China?

 

[ShapurII]

So why don't other countries earn such a greater number of money? Because they know they would lose more if they get sanctioned, which creates a buyer-dominated market for your oil. If you think it is not fair, then let the oil stay in the field, but clearly you choose to sell anyway, so don't complain the price as you recognize the situation.

What you're saying is trivia that in no way adds anything of value to the topic. You are trying to escape from answering the main points of the argument. So, I'll repeat for you:

But the question is, why did we reach this point? Didn't China and Russia allow 4 rounds of UNSC resolutions to be passed on Iran for absolutely no reason? Didn't China and Russia fail to materialize their obligations under the JCPOA after the US pulled out of the deal in 2018? So, your argument in no ways rejects what I said about China and Russia preferring the status quo for Iran.

So what had Iran done after Obama removed the sanctions? Sell oil without restictions, and give the money to Assad, Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas and Iraqi millitants, without investing much on your own. Yes, you did revive Persia Empire, made GCC and Israel pissed in their pants, but only temporarily. How could we support you as the whole Arab world would definitely try their best to oppose? China used to "export revolution" as you did, paid dearly and only got nothing but betrayal and sanctions. Our diplomats used to persuade you, but no use. After pro-Zionist Trump came in power and broke up the deal, hard time went back for you. So why blame China?

Did you even read what I wrote? When did I blame China for any of these things you wrote? And I don't disagree with any of what you wrote this time, except for the parts where you claim they revived the Persian Empire (lol) and Obama removed the sanctions. The US never truly lifted the sanctions. Also, one cannot ignore China and Russia and the role they played into forcing Iran sign a bad deal with the West. But just for your information, I recite what I had written before again:

My comments are not directed at China for taking advantage of the situation, but rather at the Iranian leadership that has cornered us and put us in this situation for others to take advantage of us. And most of this has happened because of corruption and idiocy.

 

[LittleFish]

The fact that oil continues to be traded at $60-$70 per barrel is a strong indicator that oil is still quite relevant today. Green sources for generating electricity are still far from being enough to completely eradicate fossil fuels. So, most electrical cars still indirectly depend on fossil fuels. I'm not talking about China, but the world in general. Other than that, fossil fuels continue to be the main reason for the US dollar dominance. So, oil is not dollar. It is more important than dollar. Energy is more important than fiat currency.

Iran is not only a country blessed with huge oil reserves, but we are the world's first/second largest holder of natural gas reserves. Add to this other precious metals, rare elements and helium reserves.

Yes, other countries do need oil badly, but we are talking China and Iran here. China is short in oil but abundant in coals, so we are trying our best to get rid of oil. Thanks to our engineers, we are being less and less oil-dependent.
Again, other countries do need oil badly, but they still choose not to buy yours, as I mentioned above. Russia used to think they were irreplacible for Europe's energy supply, especially gas, and now we all can see Russia get replaced. Energy is more important than dollar, but it doesn't mean YOUR energy is.

 

[ShapurII]

Yes, other countries do need oil badly, but we are talking China and Iran here. China is short in oil but abundant in coals, so we are trying our best to get rid of oil. Thanks to our engineers, we are being less and less oil-dependent.
Again, other countries do need oil badly, but they still choose not to buy yours, as I mentioned above. Russia used to think they were irreplacible for Europe's energy supply, especially gas, and now we all can see Russia get replaced. Energy is more important than dollar, but it doesn't mean YOUR energy is.

But that wasn't your initial statement. Your initial statement was that oil is not dollar, downplaying the relevance of oil in today's world and its value as a main source of energy. So, you are clearly changing what you said after being proven wrong. Nevertheless, this in no way contradicts what I said earlier that Khamenei is serving the interests of the neo-commie bloc, which was the main point of this discussion when you decided to reply to my earlier comment. Wasn't that the main point of this discussion to begin with?

Without Khamenei and his policies of anti-imperialism, Iran could easily become a US satellite state, like the time of the Shah, and then we will see how energy independent China is. Good luck with replacing oil and gas with coal. China has 1.3 billion mouths to feed with a history of famines that has made the Chinese eat any living thing they can get their hands on. China is an economic powerhouse with a talented labor force, but it remains quite vulnerable due to her population size.

Anyway, worry not, as I said, the status quo of Iran can be kept for at most 10 years and I analyzed every possible scenario, and they all lead to a more or less similar outcome. Then we will see how the Chinese economy and her global status will do without energy security. China lacks energy security, unlike the US, the British Empire or the Soviet Union (super powers of the modern world).

 

[LittleFish]

There are three scenarios for Iran in the near future (less than 10 years):
1. Regime change: The US and Europe finally succeed to execute their dream of regime change in Iran. Internal dissatisfaction with the system is extremely high. In this scenario, Iran will most likely become a US satellite state that will have to heavily reduce her ties with China, or may even go against China's interests. Just like the Shah of Iran and the Soviets. A 180-degree turn from the current situation.
2. Rapprochement with the US: In this case, Iran will no longer need China and Russia as much as now. Again, a serious blow to China-Iran relations because the US is widely preferred to China by nearly everyone in Iran, and around the world. Honestly, Iran isn't alone in this. Take a poll anywhere in the Middle East, or the rest of the world, and see if people prefer to form an alliance with China or the US.
3. Status quo is kept: Khamenei will remain in power, negotiations with the West will fail and everything remains the same. Still, Khamenei turned 86 last month. He has had prostate cancer in the past. He has lost his most trusted friends (Soleimani and President Raeesi) and he has never felt lonelier in the political atmosphere in Iran. Whoever replaces Khamenei will be forced to mend our ties with the West, because that's what over 80% of Iranians inside and outside Iran want and the reformist camp has gained power due to the assassinations of Khamenei's inner circle. So, we're back to option two, in the most optimistic scenario.

You are too optimistic about the future. IRGC and Basij will try their best to prevent, even the revolution succeeds there will be much more blood and chaos than you imagined. I just hope Iranian people won't suffer so much.
And even though what you said comes true, China won't lose much compared with status quo since as I said above, IRI has been the most independent regime, the so-called alliance just lived in your imagination, not the real world.

 

[ShapurII]

You are too optimistic about the future. IRGC and Basij will try their best to prevent, even the revolution succeeds there will be much more blood and chaos than you imagined. I just hope Iranian people won't suffer so much.
And even though what you said comes true, China won't lose much compared with status quo since as I said above, IRI has been the most independent regime, the so-called alliance just lived in your imagination, not the real world.

Even the situation of Syria is getting better after all that bloodshed and civil war. Even though the HTS is an Al-Qaeda affiliated Islamist regime. Believe me, even if Iran enters chaos like Syria did, Iranians are 10 times more capable of reviving the country after bloodshed.

China will lose Iran as a gateway to the Caucasus, Europe and the Middle East and as a reliable source for energy security. Iran is of geopolitical importance, other than our undeniable role in global energy.

Our so-called alliance (I don't think there is one, the Islamic Republic wants one but China and Russia are reluctant) has been signed on paper as well. We signed a "25-year comprehensive strategic partnership" in 2021, but it's just a useless piece of paper that China will never adhere to.

Again, I don't blame China. I blame the leadership of Iran for all of this. China is just trying to maximize her profit as she sees fit. I disagree with China's long term strategies because China seems to lack one but that's just my personal opinion. China seems to follow a greedy algorithm where she tries to maximize her profit at each step, without a long-term vision for making strategic partners and friends along the way.

 

[LittleFish]

But that wasn't your initial statement. Your initial statement was that oil is not dollar, downplaying the relevance of oil in today's world and its value as a main source of energy. So, you are clearly changing what you said after being proven wrong. Nevertheless, this in no way contradicts what I said earlier that Khamenei is serving the interests of the neo-commie bloc, which was the main point of this discussion when you decided to reply to my earlier comment. Wasn't that the main point of this discussion to begin with?

Without Khamenei and his policies of anti-imperialism, Iran could easily become a US satellite state, like the time of the Shah, and then we will see how energy independent China is. Good luck with replacing oil and gas with coal. China has 1.3 billion mouths to feed with a history of famines that has made the Chinese eat any living thing they can get their hands on. China is an economic powerhouse with a talented labor force, but it remains quite vulnerable due to her population size.

Anyway, worry not, as I said, the status quo of Iran can be kept for at most 10 years and I analyzed every possible scenario, and they all lead to a more or less similar outcome. Then we will see how the Chinese economy and her global status will do without energy security. China lacks energy security, unlike the US, the British Empire or the Soviet Union (super powers of the modern world).

Oil is more important than dollar for those who badly need it, and oil is not dollar for those who badly want to sell it, this is not contradictory. Iran wants to sell oil but hard to find buyers, and you don't want to let it sleep in the field and would even sell it with discount, so oil is not dollar for you. Some Europe countries are lacking in oil but abundant in dollar, so oil is more important than dollar for them, but they even choose to buy more expensive oil since they would lose more dollar if they buy yours, so your oil is not as important as dollar for them. I think the logic is clear here.

I never said China will replace oil with coal, I just stated the fact that China needs to be less independent in oil, and we have done well.
Iran does have rich resources which none denies, but Iran is not the only one. I got your idea that after becoming pro-US Iran would try best to cooperate with US to lock down China in energy supply making use of its resource. Then good luck, because this would neither be effective because there're many suppliers, nor good to yourself since Iran's population is much more than Saudi, you could not become rich by just selling oil and gas.

 

[ShapurII]

Oil is more important than dollar for those who badly need it, and oil is not dollar for those who badly want to sell it, this is not contradictory. Iran wants to sell oil but hard to find buyers, and you don't want to let it sleep in the field and would even sell it with discount, so oil is not dollar for you. Some Europe countries are lacking in oil but abundant in dollar, so oil is more important than dollar for them, but they even choose to buy more expensive oil since they would lose more dollar if they buy yours, so your oil is not as important as dollar for them. I think the logic is clear here.

Yes, but that isn't your initial statement. Nevertheless, it's pointless to argue this. We seem to agree on the main concept.
Fiat currency is a modern concept that has been around since the end of the Bretton Woods agreement. Energy and technology play an undeniable important role in the value of a fiat currency and a country's economy. China enjoys high-tech capabilities, but lacks energy security. It is China's Achilles heel.

I never said China will replace oil with coal, I just stated the fact that China needs to be less independent in oil, and we have done well.
Iran does have rich resources which none denies, but Iran is not the only one. I got your idea that after becoming pro-US Iran would try best to cooperate with US to lock down China in energy supply making use of its resource. Then good luck, because this would neither be effective because there're many suppliers, nor good to yourself since Iran's population is much more than Saudi, you could not become rich by just selling oil and gas.

Our population is only about 3 times larger than Saudi Arabia. That isn't a bad thing since our population is highly educated and trained. In fact, exceptionally well-educated and trained. Saudi Arabia completely lacks that. Also, since salaries in Iran are low, we can easily export our services and products if sanctions are lifted. You, as a Chinese citizen, should know this sort of development plan better than anybody else.

The real fight here is US vs. China. Iran is just an isolated bystander here with a tin-pot dictator with delusions of grandiosity, but a bystander that if she joins the US camp, can and will change the situation for China. As I said before, China follows a greedy algorithm to maximize her profits. For all the intelligence that the Chinese have, China lacks a long-term vision. The only country that China seems to be loyal to is perhaps North Korea. Even the Russians find it hard to trust the Chinese because of this and sooner or later, everyone will throw China under the bus. Russia will mend their ties with the US soon and Khamenei's Iran is nearing its end as we know it too.

 

[LittleFish]

Even the situation of Syria is getting better after all that bloodshed and civil war. Even though the HTS is an Al-Qaeda affiliated Islamist regime. Believe me, even if Iran enters chaos like Syria did, Iranians are 10 times more capable of reviving the country after bloodshed.

Revolution is easy to be said but bitter to be suffered. You can take it easy to say so just because you live abroad. Again, I just hope Iranian people suffer less if revolution comes true.

China will lose Iran as a gateway to the Caucasus, Europe and the Middle East and as a reliable source for energy security. Iran is of geopolitical importance, other than our undeniable role in global energy.

I never remember Iran has played such a role for China, since Iran has never been so willing to cooperate with China in geopolitics. Iran always take itself as the dominator of the middle east and reject external powers to be a player. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Our so-called alliance (I don't think there is one, the Islamic Republic wants one but China and Russia are reluctant) has been signed on paper as well. We signed a "25-year comprehensive strategic partnership" in 2021, but it's just a useless piece of paper that China will never adhere to.

As we discussed above, we did want to invest, but it seemed we were not so welcomed to invest despite there is a contract.

Again, I don't blame China. I blame the leadership of Iran for all of this. China is just trying to maximize her profit as she sees fit. I disagree with China's long term strategies because China seems to lack one but that's just my personal opinion. China seems to follow a greedy algorithm where she tries to maximize her profit at each step, without a long-term vision for making strategic partners and friends along the way.

I got your idea. To be frank, isn't it is Iran that lacks long-term vision not to cooperate with China firmly since Islamic Revolution? Dwelling on the West and then what have you got? It is US that keeps sanctioning Iran. Having unrealistic fantasy on the West only results in greater loss.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Don’t you think the biggest reason for status quo is your incapability in making nukes? North Korea did it despite disastrous economy and heavy sanctions. China made nukes with very limited conditions.

it's a political decision not technical issue

Iran was testing advanced implosion designs already in 2009

Iran tested advanced nuclear warhead design – secret report

Watchdog fears Tehran has key component to put bombs in missiles, the Guardian has learned

www.theguardian.com