Very well articulated
Now that the fog of war is lifting we can perhaps construct a rudimentary timeline of events that happened during Indo-Pak skirmishes 2025.
- Indians either orchestrated or deliberately allowed Pahalgam attacks to happen. No police force nor army nor paramilitary arrived despite the existence of police station/ 1RR camp/ 116 CRPF Bn camps a stone's throw away.
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10 mins after the massacre was over, Indian police filed an FIR against "Pakistani masters".
- No investigation nor manhunt for the perpetrators which was very odd. They still remain at large.
- BJP decided to use the event as a way to rile up domestic support as usual, to launch attacks on Pakistan and to force Pakistan into renegotiating IWT. Specifically the right to object to Indian dam designs & storage rights.
- Indian military cautioned against the idea and frankly expressed their capability shortcomings & Pak capabilities to strike back/ inflict pain.
- Indian political leadership shrewdly distanced themselves from the debacle and made a show of "full op control" given to military.
- Indian military waited for weeks to gather intelligence on their targets but mostly failed as the strikes killed civilians. 0 big name LeT/JeM figures.
- IAF believed large numbers and firing SOWs from Indian airspace would deter PAF from retaliating. They had multiple strike and escort packages nevertheless.
- PAF indeed operated under strict ROE of no shooting unless IAF violates airspace or attacks them.
- PAF ROE were changed on moments notice when they detected Indians dropping SOWs. PAF engaged and shot down those aircrafts which fired SOWs, in the momentous 1h battle.
- Chaos ensued and IAF jets hurried back to their hangers after the losses.
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PAF was ordered not to pursue or strike again. Decision-makers believed this was enough retaliation to establish deterrence and rest could be done by army, to avoid escalation into war.
- Desperate Indians began drone probes after grounding of their Airforce to deter the feared Pak retaliation.
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Pak side delayed too long, deliberating on a counter strike that is proportionate and doesn't escalate - contrary to public proclamation of disproportionate response.
- DG ISPR Presser to foreign journalists where he told Journalists to remember Pakistani kids when Pak action begins, broke the camel's back and Indians panicked hard.
- The Pakistani land forces mobilization, posture and PAF proven air dominance made Indians fear a full war focused on Kashmir which caused a panic.
- Indian military ordered desperate LRV strikes on PAF bases and Pakistani cities to deter the war or at least degrade PAF capabilities to equalize the air war if deterrence failed.
- Now Pakistan panicked and launch Op Bunyan Al Marsoos with Air and Land forces much earlier than they wanted and with smaller scope. IAF/IA bases targeted.
- Ajit Doval called Trump to claim Pak was preparing for nuclear strikes (a lie, as proven by Indian CDS).
- Trump & his team got DGMOs of both sides to connect and figure out the off ramps.
- Indian political leadership stepped back in, denying diplomatic costs of the ceasefire and spreading fantasy tales.
- Indian foreign service is lambasted for its failures and MPs are sent abroad to convince foreign govts. No foreign govt hosted or met these delegations except Colombia, another disaster.
- Indian military begins feeling like it is being scapegoated and CDS utilizes Singapore hosted Shangri-la summit to deal 3 blows to BJP. First confirming air losses, 2nd confirming IAF was grounded, 3rd rubbishing BJP lies on nuclear issues.
- BJP gets caught in own devices. It has lionized the military too much to summarily discipline the uppity CDS. But it also cannot let this slip. Military however is way too entrenched in Indian public Psyche now, to detriment of BJP.
- There will be consequences of this fiasco on Indian politics. Now we just sit back and wait.
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