The events of May have shown us just how badly, hilariously badly we were outgunned conventionally from 1995-2015 or so. Even in 2019, before most of our current AD was set up, BraHMos would have been a slaughter.
@Vox Non Dei @Vikramaditya1 @MasterChief @Master Chief @TopGun786 @harpy1
Unless countries possess theit own remote sensing satellites, it is difficult to provide clear
evidence of missile strikes. Stronger space power nations who are interested in de-escalation will deliberately make satellite imagery unavailable or unclear so that one side is not humiliated and not seek revenge. An example is the Iranian missile attack on Natanz airbase where no damage was recorded by satellite imagery. Conversely attacks on Iranian bases were clearly shown.
Likewise the Balakot air strike was likely played down especially since there was no loss of life.
Even Russia which as part of the Soviet Union once had thousands of satellites is now at a grave disadvantage . Russia is but a shadow of the once mighty Soviet Union and has very poor space surveillance capabilities. Some of the disadvantages of the lack of surveillance satellites has been offset by the use of Orlan drones that are used to record hits during tactical strikes . Unlike surveillance satellites Orlans cannot be in the air over the targets all the time and are themselves vulnerable to being shot down. Unlike Russia Ukraine enjoys full access to satellite surveillance from NATO and can carry out deep penetration strikes AND control the information by denying damage from, Russian retaliation. This gap in the capability of surveillance will likely cost Russia the war in Ukraine.
Even when nations are hit by missiles they adopt all kinds of ruses and tactics to deny damage,
-Saudi Arabia first denied hits from Houthi missiles and drones that thwarted its Patriot PAC 3 system until these became too numerous to deny. It then limited the damage by denying release of satellite imagery which would have indicated to the Houthis how accurate their targeting had been.
-The most interesting case is of Britain in 1944 when it was hit by V2 rockets. Initially Britain claimed the explosions were due to leaks of gas fuel from its gas pipelines that had ignited. Much later Britain accepted the missile strikes but released no arial pictures the RAF itself had taken to access the damage. Doctored ground pictures and fake news was released indicating hits far from the actual point of impact. This confused the Germans into thinking their gyroscopic guidance system was flawed and their missiles had gone astray and hit inconsequential areas such as farmland. The Germans had lost all their high altitude reconnaissance aircraft and thus were unable to verify their strikes which in fact had been devastating.
Returning to the India Pakistan conflict :
There is a strong possibility Pakistani retaliatory strikes using Fatah 2 missiles have badly hurt India, even though there is no satellite imagery available to prove it .
Here are the reasons:
1.
There has likely been unintended collateral civilian casualties because even though the Indian military establishment is denying any damage the civilian casualties have prompted protests by local politicians from the ruling party asking why there was not sufficient protection from missile strikes. This itself shows the Indian claim of 100% interception of Fatah strikes as a lie. Here the Indian establishment is in an information dilemma. It initially claimed Pakistan targeted civilians but subsequently never provided details. Claiming that Pakistan has savagely targeted civilian areas also shows that air defenses were not so effective as they claim to be.
2.
Social media ground level mobile phone camera footage clearly show impacts which regardless of where these were indicates that Indian AD did not intercept every single missile
3. TV channel reporters are interviewing residents in the vicinity of the air bases or military installations struck and even with heavy censorship the news filtering out is that these targets were struck.
4. India's acceptance of a ceasefire indicates the missile strikes were beginning to hurt.
What is intriguing is that China, which undoubtedly had surveillance satellites over the area has not released adequate satellite imagery supporting Pakistans retaliation. This could be because Fatah 2 has no Chinese components or commercial interests and China sees no value in promoting a system it has not developed. It could also be because for now China wanted a de-escalation and didn't want to antagonize India further. China did exactly that in 2020 when (unlike 1962) it did not release humiliating images of Indian soldiers surrendering. . China captured 110 Indian soldiers including several officers but released very little information.
With the advances in surface to air missile systems, the days of high altitude surveillance aircraft bringing crystal clear images are long gone. Pakistan would need to launch nano surveillance satellites during the next war to accurately assess the effectiveness of its missile strikes . Elsewhere in this forum this possibility using assets Pakistan already has, has been discussed
