Pakistan has a Problem | Quwa Group - My Counter Thoughts

[Rational Philosopher]

I think the most effective way in the end is to purchase our missiles, because buying technology and local manufacturing costs is a huge issue. Modern high-tech missiles are very complex. China's vast and complete manufacturing industry can minimize costs. On the contrary, if you go back and produce it yourself, the technology is complex and requires a large number of related supporting facilities. Exquisite and complex parts require a lot of funds, which is simply not feasible during wartime. Geography lacks depth, and the enemy may find ways to destroy manufacturing points. Even if China's cost is reduced to the lowest level to supply missiles to Pakistan, it will still be a very expensive continuous consumption during wartime. I have observed that your leaders have visited Muslim countries continuously after the war, and you need to do everything possible to get all kinds of support, including the United States. On the other hand, if Pakistan solves the problem of money, with China's huge manufacturing capacity and supply chain, India will cry，Taking the PL15 missile as an example, the cost price we produce cannot be achieved by any country in the world. In fact, there is no large-scale industrial price on this planet that can be lower than ours.

The problem with this is MTCR restrictions, plus China (on paper anyway) doesn't allow export of certain technology at all so we have no choice but to invest in developing our own. For example long-range in vicinity of 500km-2000km, hypersonic glide vehicle warheads, etc, that we need may not be something China will provide even if we pay.

Also this is subject to China's own national interests, if they develop better relations with India, such a plan goes through the roof and we are left alone. A certain capability locally is seen as critical.

 

[guangdongt]

@guangdongt

Your hypothesis is correct subject to one caveat. That the Chinese will sell their weapons/systems to PAK at cost price or at minimal mark up. With that in place, there is no way Pakistani or any other industry can match your prices. But the Q is will you do so?.

There is another fact to be kept in mind. Today IND-PRC relations are poor that is why PRC maybe tempted to sell weapons at very attractive terms. What if IND and PRC were to have a rapprochement? Now it may seem a theoretical possibility, no national govt can not keep such possibilities aside while framing national policies. For that reason, all countries incl PAK must keep a minimum certain procurement local, even if it means paying a higher price than Chinese prices.

Regards

It's simple, completely reversing the strategic relationship with China is something that no political party in your entire country can do, not because of China, but because of India. Kashmir is your eternal dead end. The Karakoram Corridor, together with Aksai Chin, constitutes a strategic defense line in western China and is a key point for national defense and security. Conversely, if you could resolve the Kashmir issue with Pakistan, our three countries would not be in the same situation today.

 

[onlinpunit]

Brahmos , though named after brahma , isn't all that omnipotent and Omni present as portrayed by our enlightened brigade .....in any future conflict it will be given whole lotta love as given to rafale

Your knowledge is scintillating.
Brahmos : Brahmaputra ( River in India ) + Moshkova ( river in Russia)

 

[Falcon26]

Can you share the source claiming that the IAF was grounded for two days?
If the IAF was really grounded, why didn’t the PAF bomb Indian airbases at will?
Instead, they chose to launch ground-to-ground missiles while hiding inside civilian areas

Your military chief said so in Singapore. We already knew because IAF was MIA the whole time after May 7th.

 

[Falcon26]

@Yasser76

so in fact PAF acheived air superiority?

Yes, of course. But that didnt prevent its airbases from getting roasted, did it?

Regards

From number of aircraft lost isn’t important to air superiority isn’t important

 

[Rational Philosopher]

@Rationalist that Pak should not go back to SCM tech but pursue a ballistic based Hypersonic.Who introruced the Supersonic threshold in subcontinent? It was india and now there are going for ballistic based Hypersonic anti ship weapons that will also see versatile use
So pak going for ballistic based Hypersonics for conventional use is not really nuclear escalation and makes sense to prepare for next round.
Even Russians are using Hypersonic Aero ballistic missiles like Kinzhal in real combat

Everyone around the world is pursuing both things though. Russia has Zircon to complement the Avangard. (Kinzhal isn't a glide vehicle, it's just Iskander air launched)

While China, USA are also developing both. Even India has both programs.

A cruise missile system is distinct from a ballistic system, I don't believe they can be substitutes. Pakistan may have to spare extra funds to produce a cruise missile equivalent separate from any ongoing HGV projects. Do we have any MaRVs btw?

Is Shaheen 1A a MaRV?

 

[Rational Philosopher]

Pakistan already have YJ-12s export version called C-302 with Pakistan Navy and SMASH is initial work in regards of having DF-21D type capability.

It's only on Type 045/AP ships. It doesn't have any land-deployed LACM options.

 

[guangdongt]

It's only on Type 045/AP ships. It doesn't have any land-deployed LACM options.

The YJ12 missile we sold to Algeria is a shore based model, which Pakistan did not purchase。The CM-302 supersonic anti-ship missile is an export model of the domestically produced YJ-12 series supersonic anti-ship missile. Algeria purchased a shore based version of the same model as the YJ-12B. In 2021, our CM-302 defeated the Russian SS-N-26 "Ruby" supersonic missile and secured an order from Algeria.

 

[Ak01]

I am sick of the BrahMos Hype . BrahMost isn’t some silver bullet. India fired 40 to 50 of them, and what’s the outcome? A few damaged hangars? Not a single high-value target taken out. Zero.

Yeah, it’s fast—but it turns like a 16-wheeler ( cant do effective midcourse correction). And it’s been jammed, spoofed, and even shot down. There are plenty of images showing the wreckage, and even a video of one slamming into an empty field outside Lahore. So let’s not pretend it was some game-changing weapon. The hype doesn’t match the results.

Why would Brahmos be a threat to China. The Chinese already have something far superior than the Brahmos , its called CJ-100 CM (DF-100). Its faster ( Hypersonic) and has a bigger range and better navigation.
View attachment 126201
View attachment 126202
.

This is quite devoid of reality.

"I am sick of the BrahMos Hype . BrahMost isn’t some silver bullet. India fired 40 to 50 of them, and what’s the outcome? A few damaged hangars? Not a single high-value target taken out. Zero."

It was very clear India kept its hand restrained too- there was literally nothing stopping them from escalating heavily and striking at will. You're doing a great job at 'attempting' to minimise the impact. India was able to strike wherever they wanted, deep inside pak airspace, attacking airfields far inland. Thats something we did not think could happen. If they wanted to, they would have done 10x more damage and we'd have done nothing about it.

"Yeah, it’s fast—but it turns like a 16-wheeler ( cant do effective midcourse correction). And it’s been jammed, spoofed, and even shot down"

So why were they unable to be intercepted? Thats my question, the forces had the radar data, the forces knew what to expect and what to look for, since theyve got this huge turn radius and fly in a straght line, why did so many get through?


"And it’s been jammed, spoofed, and even shot down"
Lets pretend 10 were launched- they claimed 16, of which, 2 were verifiably intercepted/duds. A 20% interception rate does not bode well. What you saw in Lahore was an Israeli Rampage missile- as evident by the canards. Also, they have their own INS to fall back on, how do you jam a RLG based INS? They have a 1m CEP, lets pretend they're wholly relying on INS guidance, all youve done is degrade their CEP, not deny their ability to effectively strike...

"Why would Brahmos be a threat to China. The Chinese already have something far superior than the Brahmos , its called CJ-100 CM (DF-100). Its faster ( Hypersonic) and has a bigger range and better navigation."

Because it has serious destructive power? Because its an extremely capable and deadly missile? Why are we hell bent on becoming like the Indians and brushing things off? It blows my mind that the Indian armed forces could literally crater every single airbase with a swarm of BrahMos and you're here pretending the situation is ok. If tomorrow, a full scale war kicked off, half the PAF would be destroyed on the ground...

 

[guangdongt]

I want to say that missiles like BrahMos are not something rare. We have sold similar missiles to more than one country, but China's military sales are far less high-profile than India's. BrahMos was sold to the Philippines later than us and promoted to the whole world. I believe that Pakistan has been implementing a defense strategy for a long time, with insufficient preparation of air defense and offensive weapons. Danger always arises from inadequate preparation, and India will have to pay a higher price for its next attack. The gap between Pakistan and India is not so great as to be irreparable.

 

[Ak01]

If 6-0 is trivial then why India waited a month to confirm? From evidence we have India failed to destroy any Pakistani aircraft and airbases damage was minimum.

They had all the reason to destroy airbases and assets with in. So they failed in their objective and agreed with Trump ceasefire. A ceasefire which is deeply humiliating to them as not only Trump cannot stop reminding them but now also Indian opposition.

India go back with 6-0 including 3 rafale that will never fly again. 90% chance of S400 radar being taken out. And all they have to show is some damage on Airbase hangar that didnt prevent PAF aircrafts to take off.

So my humble guess is that with brahmos they wanted to destroy PAF assets on ground. I know for a fact that just before ceasefire they fired at Kamra base but were intercepted. Basically India failed here in their objective.

because this is indo pak and domestic opinions are more important than effectiveness/getting the job done.

Id actually argue India fulfilled its objectives- they wanted to strike "terror camps"- they succeeded. Objective met.

PAF DCA mission was successful- PAF objective met.

Indians launched strikes on bases and radars- objective was to show nothing is safe, id say this was achieved, atleast 18/20 drones were shot down, but id say, objective met considering GHQ was not far from where some drones landed, not airbases were safe. Success?

Bunyan Al Marsoos- satisfy the blood craving of local pop- i guess objective met? the PA put on a show to calm pakistanis down, was there any effect beyond making us feel like we won- no, not really.

"India go back with 6-0 including 3 rafale that will never fly again. 90% chance of S400 radar being taken out. And all they have to show is some damage on Airbase hangar that didnt prevent PAF aircrafts to take off."

unfortunately this isnt accurate at all, we literally resorted to photoshopped pics to try and prove an s400 hit. Not chinese, not western BDA proved a s400 hit and also, we;d have seen videos come out locally also from the hit. In terms of preventing PAF aircraft taking off- im a pilot myself, you bet im not taking off of a runway with a hole in it lol

 

[veeru]

Totally agreed BuM was for local consumption and not a real military response. But the downing of 6 Indian fighter jets and the grounding of the Indian Air Force for two days (per their own admission) wasn’t a trivial matter. The Indians never used their Air Force after the initial battle and even by their own admission, fired their munitions on the 10th from extreme ranges.

6 Indian jets were not down but 3-4 is the number.
Also it was possible because of the RoE at that time.

Once PAF fired those BVRs, the Indian ADs came up and Pakistani jets went behind along with the AWACs only to do very small incursion to 100km from the Pakistan on May 10.

Also IAF didn't remain grounded for two day.
When CDS said India hit Pakistan bases two day later, he simply meant the date and time of Indian attack which for most part was necessitated by Fateh-2 missile strike by Pakistan.

 

[Ak01]

Yeah, funny thing Pakistan, unfortunately also has a stock pile.

of dozens? hundreds? or thousands?

 

[Ak01]

Also it was possible because of the RoE at that time.

unfortunately this is also cope-

IAF RoE would not have made them sitting ducks, simply because this was an IAF/PAF bout and they knew what was going to happen.

If it was the US id buy it, but i dont buy this claim that IAF RoE kept their hands tied.

 

[Rational Philosopher]

The YJ12 missile we sold to Algeria is a shore based model, which Pakistan did not purchase。The CM-302 supersonic anti-ship missile is an export model of the domestically produced YJ-12 series supersonic anti-ship missile. Algeria purchased a shore based version of the same model as the YJ-12B. In 2021, our CM-302 defeated the Russian SS-N-26 "Ruby" supersonic missile and secured an order from Algeria.View attachment 126256View attachment 126258

Yeah I meant our own CM-302 currently is only equipped on our Type 045s, we haven't got a land based supersonic LACM option like OP claimed. It's a good missile and probably the quickest way to getting a BrahMos analogue.