Well 600 pages in this thread which tells me a lot of emotions. Havent bothered to read the thread, because it would be exhausting to scroll through emotional posts and most probably posts containing disinformation.
Im going to give my two cents, with the risk of this already having been said by a lot of people.
On the surface Irans air defence capabilites seem totally paralyzed. The damage to nuclear industry seem extensive, although we have to wait and see to get a true glimps of the extent of the damage and whether or not the critical infrastructure buried underground has survived.
But the material losses are secondary (even though painful to watch). What really has been the major disaster are the series of decisions and inaction by the political and military leadership in the last 20 months which has led up to this point.
Its not one mistake. Its not two. Not three. Its a series of REPEATED mistakes. Its a systematic failure and breakdown on multiple levels and crucial occassions. To mention a few would Irans ineffective response to restore deterrence after the bombing of the embassy in Syria, the bombing of Haniyeh in Tehran, the murder/decapitation of Hezbollahs entire military and political leadership, the ceasefire between Lebanon-Israel, only for Syria to get overrun the next day. There is something to be said about "use it or lose it".
Hezbollah restrained themselves in their northern front, and see where that got them. And Iran was restrained in its direct support and action.
The damage that could have been inflicted had they operated under a different strategic doctrine, would have meant a different power dynamic and deterrence equation. Yes they would have been weakened, but so would have the Israelis.
In war everyone is weakened but the side that gets relatively more weakened ends up loosing. Iran has been fighting this war like a someone giving light jabs in a boxing match, while the other dude uses iron gloves and punches as his life depends on it.
Its too late in the game for Iran to do anything meaningful. Its position has been battered regionally, with its allies severely weakened which limits their capability (and will) to help Iran, seeing as how Iran did not help them even if they were given the causus belli many times over by Israeli actions.
I dont see a way out of this. As I see it, there are just a few options. A total surrender, meaning conceding to every US demand (remember, Iran is an even weaker position now than they were yesterday, so additional demands may follow). Many probably view this as an impossibility, but let us remember that Khomeini "swallowed the poison pill" when he agreed to end the Iraq war. If regime survival is at stake, this is certainly plausible. The mullahs are incompetent but they are not irrational.
Another option would be to absorb these strikes. I dont see an effective Iranian response forthcoming in the near future, (Israel/USA has total escalation dominance). Then opt to leave the NPT and develop nukes.
Another option would be to stay on the current catastrophic path. Meaning to give the semblance of a punitive strike but for all purposes would be symbolic (like in TP1 and TP2), which would lead to the utter collapse of whatever little deterrence is left which would invite more Israeli freedom of action and savagery.
Those are the options as I see it realistically, if anyone has other option, I would be glad to hear them.
Suggestions of some state selling nukes to Iran (like Pakistan or Russia) I will not take as serious notions/suggestions.
