Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[the vicious kind]

What is Israel’s calculus here?

Is it simply to take out Iran's nuclear facilities and damage its missile factories? That may be achievable — but at an unknown cost. So far, Iran has only used about 6% of its ballistic missile arsenal: roughly 200 out of an estimated 3,000 missiles, with approximately 25 successful hits. ( alteast two of them hitting HVTs ).

If Iran were to use 100% of its missile arsenal and Israel maintains its current interception rate of 88%, that would result in about 360 successful hits. This would cause significant damage, but it’s unlikely to deter Israel from continuing the conflict.

However, if interception effectiveness declines over time — say, to 60% — then around 40% of the missiles would get through. That means 1,200 hits, which would be far more devastating.

Historically, Israeli security doctrine has tolerated short-term suffering in pursuit of long-term strategic dominance.

Meaning Israel may want to descalate once it has hit all Nuclear facilties.

The Israeli calculus seems to be rather mysterious to me to be honest. Because they are not capable of destroying the under ground facilites no matter what not even with nukes hence what was the objective here to begin with?

All they had to do was lobbying the Americans to invade all this airstrikes was futile and counter-productive to say the least

The pattern of strikes initially focused on the assassination of Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists. At one point, there were even rumors suggesting that Israel aimed to provoke or accelerate regime change through targeted decapitation.

However, once Iran’s command-and-control (CNC) structure was reestablished and its crippled communications restored, the focus of Israeli strikes appears to have shifted — or perhaps returned — to what was likely the original objective: Iran’s nuclear facilities, scientific leadership, and missile bases, in an effort to disrupt or preempt any large-scale Iranian counterattack.

The situation remains fluid. If Iran continues to escalate by launching strikes on Israeli territory, we may see a corresponding shift in Israel’s targeting doctrine — potentially expanding to include oil refineries, economic infrastructure, and other critical assets.

 

[Ali_Baba]

Ahh, this whole episode makes me realize that Pakistan must maintain an inventory of atleast 7-8k Shaheen 3s.

In the event india and israel doubled down on us in the future (time changes fast)

I hope the planners in Pakistan do not come to this conclusion, given how little damage these missiles are capable of causing due to their piss poor CEP. The future is cruise missiles, supersonic cruise missiles. Ballistic missiles are a dead end due to their ineffectiveness to precisely hit a target. Yes, a good firework display, but how many real hard "high value" targets have these missiles hit in Israel ?

 

[Cash gk]

They started against Spanish prime minister the man is Pro peace and served spain very well

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[NationalistPKDude132]

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“Israel is targeting Yemen, Iran, and Palestine. If the Islamic world doesn’t unite now, we’ll all face the same fate. Pakistan stands with Iran. Silence is no longer an option." - Pakistan Defense Minister Khawaja Asif

All is drama, we ourselves at the establishment level have been bought by zionists and USA.

Asim is gonna go to the trump parade, we are same as The Arabs just keeping it well hidden

 

[muz]

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[Dil Pakistan]

The issue with that line of argument lies in its glaring double standards: Iran is readily blamed for fueling sectarian conflict, while only a passing acknowledgment is given to the fact that the Saudis bankroll the opposing side. What’s almost always swept under the rug is that over 99% of terrorism in Pakistan stems from groups funded by (and ideologically related to) Saudi Arabia.... yet somehow, Saudis always walk away unscathed, without scrutiny or consequence...!!

And when it comes to India, again the GCC nations tilt noticeably in India's favor. Unlike Iran, they don’t rely on India for economic survival , and unlike Iran, they wield substantial influence within India, which they have never exercised to support Pakistan. Once again, Iran becomes the scapegoat, and Saudi Arabia enjoys immunity....

Now, this isn’t to suggest that Iran harbors deep respect or affection for Pakistan (far from it). But neither do the Arab states. So the question is: why single out one side for blame? The answer may well lie in sectarian bias, a lens that clouds reason and shapes convenient justifications.

And what truly matters (as astutely pointed out by @Goenitz) is the bitter irony that Sunnis label Shias as kafir, Shias return the favour, and the real disbelievers consider both to be Muslims… and hate them both with equal passion...

Solid points and difficult to counter.

The reason Saudis / GCC get away with everything is because they give us money. We are suckers.

Have a look at our economy since 9th April 2022 till today. We nose dived from 6.1% to 0.5%.

Where did the money come from to keep us afloat?

China gives us arms almost for free. Again, the same story.

Our house is not in order and we will always need money from others.

Iran does not give us money.

 

[NationalistPKDude132]

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They consider bombing children as a "war front"

 

[S.Y.A]

I hope the planners in Pakistan do not come to this conclusion, given how little damage these missiles are capable of causing due to their piss poor CEP. The future is cruise missiles, supersonic cruise missiles. Ballistic missiles are a dead end due to their ineffectiveness to precisely hit a target. Yes, a good firework display, but how many real hard "high value" targets have these missiles hit in Israel ?

the shaheen BMs are not for conventional use. they carry nukes. CEP doesnt really matter in that scenario.

 

[muz]

How did they even get these Drones inside Iran

who knows maybe some

Dark Indian magic?

 

[LeGenD]

For general knowledge. If a ballistic missile hits open ground, it can leave a creator (impact). If it hits a building, it can damage it (impact). Ballistic missile intercept can also lead to debris or parts of missiles falling on the ground or a building (impact). Therefore, a tweet mentioning total count of impacts is not instructive. Visual evidence shows what happened.

 

[the vicious kind]

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“Israel is targeting Yemen, Iran, and Palestine. If the Islamic world doesn’t unite now, we’ll all face the same fate. Pakistan stands with Iran. Silence is no longer an option." - Pakistan Defense Minister Khawaja Asif

He is proposing an initiative for all Muslim countries to sever all forms of ties with Israel. To me, this suggests that there is a credible threat from Israel to Pakistan — otherwise, there would be no strong reason to openly oppose the Abraham Accords at this stage.

 

[Ali_Baba]

In 1990s PAF determined to advance on two fronts one was acquisition of BVR and AWAC

Post 2019 the focus went into gathering high level of situational awareness as they didn’t want to be caught like the sneak attack by IAF on balakot.

In 2025.. they were ready .. they knew exactly what the Indians were up making their strikes in effective.

A counter strike by PAF sufficient to force India to a cease fire. PAF achieved a tactical and strategic deterrence ie IAF planes grounded - tactical and forced India to a cease fire after PAF strike - strategic



Iran cannot force Israel to a ceasefire. They cannot use their airforce to strike israel and achieve a strategic deterrent. Their missiles will annoy Israel but not defeat it

The concept of strategic deterrence is based on being able to incur a cost on your opponent. Look at how much Israels airforce has imposed an economic cost on Iran, many many billions right. What an airforce would have done for Iran, was reduced the freedom of operation the IDF has over Iranian airspace to impose a cost on Iran that it has right now, and potentially pushed the IDF "further" back from Iran into Iraq/Syria and in doing so, limit the cost on Iran.

 

[ghazi52]

Lebanon's airspace reopens after temporary closurepublished at 05:01
05:01​

Lebanon has reopened its airspace as of 10:00 local time (08:00 BST).

The announcement, which came from the ministry of public works and transport, emphasises the decision to close the airspace had been made for necessary security reasons.

A little earlier, we reported Jordan had also reopened its airspace.

There has been no update from Israel's Ministry of Transport since yesterday, when it announced Israel's airspace would be closed "until further notice".

Iranian state media outlet IRNA has also said that no flights will operate in the country "until further notice".

Flight tracking website Flightradar24 currently shows no planes in the sky over a significant swathe of the Middle East.

 

[F-22Raptor]

So, 36 hours = a couple days?
What a fucking idiot.

Day and a half suit you better? The fact you’re over here worried about semantics, just drives home my original point.

 

[NationalistPKDude132]

He is proposing an initiative for all Muslim countries to sever all forms of ties with Israel. To me, this suggests that there is a credible threat from Israel to Pakistan — otherwise, there would be no strong reason to openly oppose the Abraham Accords at this stage.

Honestly bro i think we really should join the Abraham Accords


Also this dudes words mean jack, the establishment supports zionists, he is just a politician and you know the power of politician in pakistan