RescueRanger
Meme Lord
Really want to see what statement Russia, China and Turkiye come out with tomorrow to counter the EU commission's statement which will likely be in favour of Israel.
Israel's actions have pushed Russia, China and Turkiye together as the trio all fear US/western hegemony in the region. Russia and China have no appetite to taking overt action like providing weapons to Iran, their support will be more subtle and diplomatic.
Lets start with Iran's most powerful ally - Russia:
Russia will NOT allow the "regime " change wet-dream being proposed. But Russia is also close to Israel and regardless of what people think, the Kremlin has very good chemistry with Israel.
Russia has no military treaty with Iran but does have a strategic economic and cultural treaty with Iran, Russia and Iran have balanced relations - Russia is trying to improve relations with the US, Russia doesn't want to undermine its relations with Israel (even after Israel and US transferred Patriot batteries to Ukraine - it stayed sweet with Israel).
Moscow has a role to play in conjunction with Beijing to help as intermediaries or guarantors. If there is an agreement, Russia and China WILL be key players in rebuilding the Iranian Economy (MARK MY WORDS). Because the real struggle will come for Iran after the conflict - the rebuilding phase.
China:
China will give the same neutral "call for calm" "peace" statement all very business like - Obstacle in the ME - China may be the "big loser" in the changes in the region here - because China's main objective is grow the Anti Western sphere of influence.
China's primary interests are "low cost" energy supply and it has no interest in projecting its military power in the region - the Chinese are businessmen, they will adopt the political route and aim to prevent instability in Iran that will undoubtedly occur if there were a forced regime change.
[Not good for either China or Russia strategically], if oil prices go up - and the Saudi Aramco shares went up today by 1.73%.
Turkiye:
Leaving Turkiye, I seriously double they will offer any material support but Turkiye sees Iran as a Frenemy, as Iranian members here will know Ankara and Tehran both have been very competitive in Syria. Iran's peaceful nuclear program poses no threat to Turkiye, however if Iran were to develop a credible nuclear weapon program, Turkiye may pivot towards the language of its western partners.
I do think that where Turkiye will find cause will be to prevent Israel's ambitions for forced violent regime change.
Turkish foreign policy has been conservative - and is sceptical of forceful regime change, specially from "aboard" poses geopolitical risk for Turkiye, so they will oppose this and support Iran. Turkiye also fears undocumented human migration if Iran is destabilised.
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Israel's actions have pushed Russia, China and Turkiye together as the trio all fear US/western hegemony in the region. Russia and China have no appetite to taking overt action like providing weapons to Iran, their support will be more subtle and diplomatic.
Lets start with Iran's most powerful ally - Russia:
Russia will NOT allow the "regime " change wet-dream being proposed. But Russia is also close to Israel and regardless of what people think, the Kremlin has very good chemistry with Israel.
Russia has no military treaty with Iran but does have a strategic economic and cultural treaty with Iran, Russia and Iran have balanced relations - Russia is trying to improve relations with the US, Russia doesn't want to undermine its relations with Israel (even after Israel and US transferred Patriot batteries to Ukraine - it stayed sweet with Israel).
Moscow has a role to play in conjunction with Beijing to help as intermediaries or guarantors. If there is an agreement, Russia and China WILL be key players in rebuilding the Iranian Economy (MARK MY WORDS). Because the real struggle will come for Iran after the conflict - the rebuilding phase.
China:
China will give the same neutral "call for calm" "peace" statement all very business like - Obstacle in the ME - China may be the "big loser" in the changes in the region here - because China's main objective is grow the Anti Western sphere of influence.
China's primary interests are "low cost" energy supply and it has no interest in projecting its military power in the region - the Chinese are businessmen, they will adopt the political route and aim to prevent instability in Iran that will undoubtedly occur if there were a forced regime change.
[Not good for either China or Russia strategically], if oil prices go up - and the Saudi Aramco shares went up today by 1.73%.
Turkiye:
Leaving Turkiye, I seriously double they will offer any material support but Turkiye sees Iran as a Frenemy, as Iranian members here will know Ankara and Tehran both have been very competitive in Syria. Iran's peaceful nuclear program poses no threat to Turkiye, however if Iran were to develop a credible nuclear weapon program, Turkiye may pivot towards the language of its western partners.
I do think that where Turkiye will find cause will be to prevent Israel's ambitions for forced violent regime change.
Turkish foreign policy has been conservative - and is sceptical of forceful regime change, specially from "aboard" poses geopolitical risk for Turkiye, so they will oppose this and support Iran. Turkiye also fears undocumented human migration if Iran is destabilised.
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