You’re added to my ignore list. Life’s too short for such nonsense.
All extreme opinions shouldn’t be cause for offense.
The discussions at Sanober institute were pointing to an interesting metric. To quote the Dark knight.
Madness is like Gravity - all it takes is one little push.
So based on what happened on the 10th - Pakistan’s leadership took a calculus that it was not dealing with rational actors so what if you crossed beyond a certain point and those actors decided to launch a desperate mass attack through Cholistan(which they might still do) and the sea or worse still try to hit nuclear facilities to maybe prompt a nuclear response from Pakistan. A response they might use to go from that already maddening escalation ladder to perhaps launch everything at Pakistan and so on?
The OODA loop for a nuclear decision for both Pakistan and India is under 7 minutes.
They’re already using dual use systems conveniently so how can Pakistan tell besides intelligence that that is coming is either conventional or nuclear?
Either Pakistan launches an all out or a nuclear weapon but what if the Indian system isn’t nuclear? Then what do you tell the world?
It’s a mind boggling issue.
So you go as far as your assessment of the other side’s capacity for madness goes. Remember, the IAF basically grounded itself when the PaF attacked giving it full air superiority during Bunyan al Marsoos and only lobbed Brahmos until the PAF vacated and then launched extreme low level(and well executed) strikes with Scalp and one other system.
Imagine Modi or Amit Shah or the more hawkish terrorists in their midst - what if they were to say Pakistan had crossed the line and its time to launch a nuclear weapon?
Their power structure lies solely with civilians so if they decide to go then they go. They don’t have a varied NSC(to Pakistan’s “ironic” credit) with military, bureaucracy and some political representation.
So while I find MK’s views overly brash and extremist he has a point - what if in this case there is too much “restraint” and caution on assuming there is a lower threshold for Indian response?
What if they are blustering as well and having much much much more to lose are more open to an exit if properly beaten down.
Some part of it is inherited memory from 71, from Kargil, brasstacks and Parakaram.
Where they saw the Indians come back with a massive response and every branch was outmatched.
This isn’t the case today nor was it so in 2019.
Pakistan isn’t really that outmatched - but perhaps they don’t know that yet.
What if to get their maddened heads to be a little more sane and “Sindoor continues” to calm down. You did need to hurt them even more at every decision making level so if their political ideals did go to the IAF or IA or IN - their military commanders hit back and tell them we are not prepared to lose another 30 jets, a fifth of our forward deployed ammo and a ship.
Just food for thought