Chengdu J-20 5th Generation Aircraft News & Discussions

[SolarWarden]

So does that make the B21-raider crap then.

Are you serious? You're going to compare a fighter to what a strategic bomber does? Don't look foolish now.

 

[lightning f57]

Are you serious? You're going to compare a fighter to what a strategic bomber does? Don't look foolish now.

You brought up CCA, so doesn't B21 use CCA as well?, infact it can act as a mothership probably better than the other 2 US stealth fighters because they have 2 pilots.

Otherwise using your logic it must be crap in doing it because it has 2 pilots.

Irony B21 raider newer more advanced than both F35 and F22

J20S more advance than any other Chinese plane in service.

Your theory doesn't stack up.

 

[Nuffle]

You brought up CCA, so doesn't B21 use CCA as well?, infact it can act as a mothership probably better than the other 2 US stealth fighters because they have 2 pilots.

Otherwise using your logic it must be crap in doing it because it has 2 pilots.

Irony B21 raider newer more advanced than both F35 and F22

J20S more advance than any other Chinese plane in service.

Your theory doesn't stack up.

Baghdad Bob's clone is just speculating. Actually, he must have read something like this on The Copium Zone or F-16.net and thinks everyone will fall for his bullshit.

Each F-16C Fighting Falcon and F-15E Strike Eagle controlled two XQ-58A Valkyrie drones, highlighting the ability for manned and unmanned systems to work together. This is probably the maximum a single-seat fighter with a single pilot can handle, given the volume of information and data reaching it, even with all the AI and automation. However, a co-pilot is still essential if it is to be able to control multiple drones, especially semi-autonomous drones.

The XQ-58As, known as Autonomous Collaborative Platforms (ACPs), are designed to operate semi-autonomously, serving as force multipliers in highly contested environments while preserving the strategic and ethical oversight of human operators.

A loyal wing would depend exclusively on a single primary controller. If there are multiple loyal wings per fighter, a single-seat fighter would be unable to handle the drones' command and control tasks.

Interaction between the fighter and the ACP is minimal due to the latter's high degree of autonomy. The interface is highly intuitive, and only general "orders" are transmitted by the pilot to the "wingman." This is why this allows single-seat fighters in the USAF to control CCAs.

It appears there will be only two drones per fighter. Initially, the objective will be air-to-air missions only. Typically, the fighter will use its radar intermittently, with the lead drones launching missiles at targets.

The reverse could also be the case. The drones should be equipped with IRST and be able to scan the front in stealth mode while the fighter remains out of range of the enemy IRST. There are many possibilities, and it is not yet entirely clear how they will be used in MUMT operations.

Just don't take him seriously.

 

[Nuffle]

I agree. This doesn't make any sense. If you look at current operational J-20s and production rate, you can easily forecast 1000 J-20 by around 2031. Also, the increase in J-20 production rate is recent, it's not like China will expand production this year and stop producing the next year. So they are expected to touch 1000 soon. But then J-35 is supposed to be the cheaper one and hence would justify larger numbers. Recent production facility for J-35 also shows it is capable of producing 150+ J-35 per year, easily. So both seem to be touching 1000 each which doesn't make sense. China do not require 2000 5G fighters neither would it make so much. Because 1500+ J-16, J-15, J-11, J-10C , add 1000 J-20, 1000 J-35, it's easily 3500 fighters all 4/4.5/5 generations. Chinese ambitions justify a fleet size of around 3000 jets, nothing more than that. Now where do you accommodate the 6G in this mix ??

I am not that much aware of PLAAF strategy in this regard, maybe knowledgeable Chinese and other experienced members can comment on this.

Yes. Therefore, it's difficult to project the PLAAF's force by 2030, but matching the USAF seems to be the Chinese requirement. If so, 1,000 J-20s will be on the agenda, plus a few hundred more J-35As. We'll see how quickly the J-35A is produced and enters service compared to the J-20 in the long term; we'll be much more informed when that happens. But a projected force of >1,000 5th-generation fighters by 2030 is highly possible and feasible. I would expect up to 1,500 5th-generation fighters by 2030, considering only the PLAAF. I strongly doubt China has 3,000 fighters, and even that can't be justified, even if the US and all its regional allies are included.

 

[SecularNationalist]

The reason why a "5th gen" fighter like the J20 would need another human in the cockpit is because that fighter's avionics isn't advanced enough to handle such complicated task like CCA and likely other task. F-35 or F-22 don't need two man crew for CCA.

Well another perspective is that will give more options and features to chinese.
I've read that the back seat weapons and navigations officer will handle the tasks more effectively and can even control drones.

 

[RajaBaja]

Yes. Therefore, it's difficult to project the PLAAF's force by 2030, but matching the USAF seems to be the Chinese requirement. If so, 1,000 J-20s will be on the agenda, plus a few hundred more J-35As. We'll see how quickly the J-35A is produced and enters service compared to the J-20 in the long term; we'll be much more informed when that happens. But a projected force of >1,000 5th-generation fighters by 2030 is highly possible and feasible. I would expect up to 1,500 5th-generation fighters by 2030, considering only the PLAAF. I strongly doubt China has 3,000 fighters, and even that can't be justified, even if the US and all its regional allies are included.

Estimated 700-800 J-20's by 2030, rest J-35's to get to 1000 5th gen by 2030. The first target is to have 500 J-20's combat ready by 2027 and at least 200-300 operational J-35's on combat duty in the PLAN including serving on the aircraft carrier Fujian.

I suspect that J-20S with LWM tech will roll out in larger numbers post 2030 and will become the mainstay of loyal wingman ops.

 

[RealNapster]

I think you got it wrong. The 150 production of 5G jets is for both J-20 and J-35. China faces the whole Western alliance in the Taiwan contingencies. That means combined US, Japan, and NATO inventories, the US alone has 5000 aircraft of various kinds, not counting Japan, Korea, and NATO. So, if anything, 1000 J 20 by 2030 is too little. They should ramp up production of J 35, which they did ! View attachment 134447

Japan's Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) operates a fleet of approximately 321 fighter aircraft as of 2023. This includes various types like the F-15J/DJ, F-2, and F-35A. Japan is also actively modernizing its fighter jet capabilities with the acquisition of F-35s, including both the A and B models.

USAF have hundreds of airbases (30-40% of which in spread out throughout the globe), so it's not an issue for USA to have an Air-fleet of say 5000+ fighters. But China do not have this luxury. Even if it build 5000 aircrafts, it will still place them in the same Chinese boundary which limit the effectiveness or significance of any number greater than 3000.

The second issue is operations. Even china can not sustain operating 2000+ 5G fighters and simultaneously building 2 6G fighters as well.

Thirdly, regarding the annual production of 150 5Gs (including J-20 and J-35), I don't think it would be limited to 150/ year. Here are reasons.

1. The recently announced new facility for J-35 production is 280000 sq.m, 100,000 sq.m facility is producing around 100 J-20 per year. Now just guess how much J-35 can this new facility make per year. If we take the 150 number to be the planned production, then why would China need a new facility (and this big) to manufacture 50 J-35 annually ? It doesn't make sense.

2. J-35 is going to be used by air force as well as navy. It will also be exported. It is also going to be cheaper for china to manufacture and operate. All these points point towards a larger number. So I believe China will start with 50 J-35 /year but reach to 100+/year by 2028.

I believe now you get my confusion. China need more fighters and quickly. It is increasing it's capacity for production as well. But then it can't operate or possibly securely station more than 3000+ fighters within it's borders as well. I don't know what is going to be the end game.

 

[iblini]

You brought up CCA, so doesn't B21 use CCA as well?, infact it can act as a mothership probably better than the other 2 US stealth fighters because they have 2 pilots.

Otherwise using your logic it must be crap in doing it because it has 2 pilots.

Irony B21 raider newer more advanced than both F35 and F22

J20S more advance than any other Chinese plane in service.

Your theory doesn't stack up.

He doesn't have any theory, just making up an excuse to justified his bias, China has this but US doesn't, oh, it must be China poor, bad, not good, totally MAGA way of thought process.

 

[RealNapster]

Estimated 700-800 J-20's by 2030, rest J-35's to get to 1000 5th gen by 2030. The first target is to have 500 J-20's combat ready by 2027 and at least 200-300 operational J-35's on combat duty in the PLAN including serving on the aircraft carrier Fujian.

I suspect that J-20S with LWM tech will roll out in larger numbers post 2030 and will become the mainstay of loyal wingman ops.

I believe it is reported on this forum, by different members citing different sources, that China already have around 450 J-20. And it's production capacity is 8/month. So it will cross the 500 mark by mid of 2026. You won't have to wait for 2027. Recent reports have also confirmed that J-35 serial production has started. So expect 50+ of them also by mid of 2026. After which I assume they will increase that too to 100/year.

Here is my prediction.

Year J-20 J-35

2025 450+ 10-20
2026 540+ 60-70
2027 630+ 120-150
2028 720+ 230-250
2029 800+ 320-350
2030 900 420-500

So total maybe around 1320-1400 5G fighters by end of 2030.

 

[SolarWarden]

Well another perspective is that will give more options and features to chinese.
I've read that the back seat weapons and navigations officer will handle the tasks more effectively and can even control drones.

Kinda proving my point. The F-35 and even the F-22's avionics and network connectivity will allow them to control drones without giving the pilot more workload of inputting commands to the drones every moment. J20 or chinese tech is not there yet which is why for the J20 RIO.

 

[Nuffle]

1. The recently announced new facility for J-35 production is 280000 sq.m, 100,000 sq.m facility is producing around 100 J-20 per year. Now just guess how much J-35 can this new facility make per year. If we take the 150 number to be the planned production, then why would China need a new facility (and this big) to manufacture 50 J-35 annually ? It doesn't make sense.

2. J-35 is going to be used by air force as well as navy. It will also be exported. It is also going to be cheaper for china to manufacture and operate. All these points point towards a larger number. So I believe China will start with 50 J-35 /year but reach to 100+/year by 2028.

Are we sure the factory would only fulfill the J-35 order?

Remember that SAC currently manufactures or develops for production:
J-15T/DH
J-16/D
J-35/A
J-50 (in development)

 

[RealNapster]

Are we sure the factory would only fulfill the J-35 order?

Remember that SAC currently manufactures or develops for production:
J-15T/DH
J-16/D
J-35/A
J-50 (in development)

The new factory is easily capable of producing around 220+ fighter jets of different types, annually.

 

[RajaBaja]

I believe it is reported on this forum, by different members citing different sources, that China already have around 450 J-20. And it's production capacity is 8/month. So it will cross the 500 mark by mid of 2026. You won't have to wait for 2027. Recent reports have also confirmed that J-35 serial production has started. So expect 50+ of them also by mid of 2026. After which I assume they will increase that too to 100/year.

Here is my prediction.

Year J-20 J-35

2025 450+ 10-20
2026 540+ 60-70
2027 630+ 120-150
2028 720+ 230-250
2029 800+ 320-350
2030 900 420-500

So total maybe around 1320-1400 5G fighters by end of 2030.

You should save this post of yours. We'll revisit this in 2030. Hopefully, both of us will be alive at that time. I don't gossip here like little children do. Most of the data I share, has some backing I can't disclose.

China can now build around 100 J-20's due to multiple pulse assembly lines / robotic manufacturing. They now have around 300 J-20's. Last year was the first year reaching this capacity. Anyone saying China has 450 of these, isn't accurate.

 

[Hendarto]

USAF have hundreds of airbases (30-40% of which in spread out throughout the globe), so it's not an issue for USA to have an Air-fleet of say 5000+ fighters. But China do not have this luxury. Even if it build 5000 aircrafts, it will still place them in the same Chinese boundary which limit the effectiveness or significance of any number greater than 3000.

The second issue is operations. Even china can not sustain operating 2000+ 5G fighters and simultaneously building 2 6G fighters as well.

Thirdly, regarding the annual production of 150 5Gs (including J-20 and J-35), I don't think it would be limited to 150/ year. Here are reasons.

1. The recently announced new facility for J-35 production is 280000 sq.m, 100,000 sq.m facility is producing around 100 J-20 per year. Now just guess how much J-35 can this new facility make per year. If we take the 150 number to be the planned production, then why would China need a new facility (and this big) to manufacture 50 J-35 annually ? It doesn't make sense.

2. J-35 is going to be used by air force as well as navy. It will also be exported. It is also going to be cheaper for china to manufacture and operate. All these points point towards a larger number. So I believe China will start with 50 J-35 /year but reach to 100+/year by 2028.

I believe now you get my confusion. China need more fighters and quickly. It is increasing it's capacity for production as well. But then it can't operate or possibly securely station more than 3000+ fighters within it's borders as well. I don't know what is going to be the end game.

Man, let's do the calc: 5000/25 = 200 bases. China is one of the largest countries in the world. As it is now, China has air bases all over the country. Instead of bunching up among a small number of airbases like the US does, China generally bases one squadron per base, which should tell you that it has no problem building bases. Many defunct air bases were recently rehabilitated, and new bases were formed all over the country. Just in Xinjiang alone, she has more than 30 dual-use airbases. And more will be built. Now, China has built dual-use air bases at the County level of government

As an infrastructure maniac, China can build 25-story apartments in a month. Notice that it takes them just a year to make 300 silos for a nuclear missile

Xinjiang currently has 26 civil airports, with plans to expand to 33 by the end of 2025 according to Xinhua. Xinjiang is aiming to become a major aviation hub with its extensive network of airports.
This number does not include a dedicated military airport.

Here's a more detailed breakdown:

• Current Number: Xinjiang has 26 civil airports in operation according to Xinhua.
  
  
• Planned Expansion: The region aims to increase this number to 33 by the end of 2025.
  
  
• Key Airports: Urumqi Diwopu International Airport is a major hub, with Kashi Laining International Airport and Yili-Yining International Airport also serving as international gateways.

As of January 10, 2024, China has 259 certified civil airports and 106 general airports. Additionally, 86 airports are designated as aviation ports according to Wikipedia. China also has plans to expand its airport network, with a goal of reaching 450 airports by 2035 according to Airport Technology.

 

[RealNapster]

Man, let's do the calc: 5000/25 = 200 bases. China is one of the largest countries in the world. As it is now, China has air bases all over the country. Instead of bunching up among a small number of airbases like the US does, China generally bases one squadron per base, which should tell you that it has no problem building bases. Many defunct air bases were recently rehabilitated, and new bases were formed all over the country. Just in Xinjiang alone, she has more than 30 dual-use airbases. And more will be built. Now, China has built dual-use air bases at the County level of government

As an infrastructure maniac, China can build 25-story apartments in a month. Notice that it takes them just a year to make 300 silos for a nuclear missile

Xinjiang currently has 26 civil airports, with plans to expand to 33 by the end of 2025 according to Xinhua. Xinjiang is aiming to become a major aviation hub with its extensive network of airports.
This number does not include a dedicated military airport.

Here's a more detailed breakdown:

• Current Number: Xinjiang has 26 civil airports in operation according to Xinhua.
  
  
• Planned Expansion: The region aims to increase this number to 33 by the end of 2025.
  
  
• Key Airports: Urumqi Diwopu International Airport is a major hub, with Kashi Laining International Airport and Yili-Yining International Airport also serving as international gateways.

As of January 10, 2024, China has 259 certified civil airports and 106 general airports. Additionally, 86 airports are designated as aviation ports according to Wikipedia. China also has plans to expand its airport network, with a goal of reaching 450 airports by 2035 according to Airport Technology.

Hmm. You have a good point. Now let's see if China have similar plans.