Israel's Tower proposes $8 bln chip plant in India

[Nilgiri]

10 years is far too optimistic, granted, but then we just down to how long would it take for Pakistan catch up to India on a per capita basis. Goldman Sachs thinks so in 50 years but even people in Pakistan are skeptical. Where was india 30 years ago and where is it now (granted it had other structural advantages in place to make the transition to growth easier).
(https://www.dawn.com/news/amp/1727346)

Formalizing the informal economy with the right incentives, positive and negative, would have to be part of the solution, but attracting FDI and cutting wasteful unproductive spending would have to be the two minimal other components.

The Benefits of Formalizing India’s Economy - The Borgen Project

Formalizing India’s economy has been a long time coming, and the government is determined to capitalize on the improvements made during.....

borgenproject.org

You raise many valid points, and I may have come across as sounding like I think that it will be easier down the road, but considering how underdeveloped the country I realistically think growth rates can be high with the right kind of discipline. Trust will take time, but a solid 5 years can lay the ground for another solid 5 years, and by then 10 solid years of reputation building and decently high growth can make Pakistan an attractive investment destination, allow growth to increase exponential.

The issue is trust is the most important thing (how do laypeople, intellectual ppl, and "do-er" people all trust those vested with being in charge)....and somewhat non-measurable thing at same time. You only see it in hindsight.

This is what in the end converts someone with relative means to put off 1% of his consumption or buffer at hand (and/or non-formal activity) and put it into something long term and above surface (exposed to accounting and taxing and so on).

More trust he has and senses around him, the more likely he is willing to do this. Every outsider of greater means then notices this and virtuous cycles start to grow and transfer to outer layers (that can be measured more objectively, capital formation, investment and then the larger numbers related to suppl side, GDP and so on).

But it is in shoddy state in Pakistan a long time. How does Pakistan address it? It has to prove it over time period of note. Competencies need to be left alone to cultivate and grow on their terms as far as possible..... rather than be over-molded to a power dynamic that is perceived by most of them as incompetent on the same matters. That's only way trust grows, its an X-factor thing deep inside in society.

But instead of this taking root, we have even in the microcosm of PDF wild swings on all kind of topics (one brigade batch of members while party favourite was more of darling of the establishment day after day bash India in all kind of disgusting ways....and then overnight after things go sour w.r.t establishment-PTI relationship.....suddenly flood forum with posts on I hope military gets lesson from India again like 1971...."reeeeee!").

It is deep mistrust phenomenon in the end (its pretty bad in India too btw, just Pakistan is different level of it I feel)....and it eventually led to what happened with old forum shutting down and so on (to add to earlier jettisoning/exodus of Turks, Indonesians, many Indians, many Pakistanis and others wholesale in earlier stages as trust arrangements again frayed and eroded entirely for little reason at the time.

In hindsight its costly I have found as I cannot bridge say two well-meaning people I respect.. the bridge got broke and too much water flowed underneath whats broken by now. I'm forced to talk to such folks separately....and its really a huge cost I cannot talk with all together.

Its long subject to get in the weeds about (and really its not worth it), but even this microcosm illustrated what afflicts the macrocosm. Microcosms like this dont really matter in end, its just bunch of online people with enough means to spare online. But the macrocosm matters a great deal....its a huge amount of people with little means getting stuck with all kind of bills and resentments....and core trust stays low.

Read what oscar is quoting here and that whole thread maybe:

Pakistan ‘is bankrupt’ and ‘sinking deeper every year’: Atif Mian

Pakistan ‘is bankrupt’ and ‘sinking deeper every year’: Atif Mian BR Web Desk February 12, 2024 Atif Mian, a noted Pakistani-American economist and currently a professor of Economics, Public Policy, and Finance at Princeton University, has said that Pakistan “is bankrupt” and “sinking deeper...

defencepk.com

Anyway @indushek can read this thread too w.r.t me bringing up HR and Capital again.

 

[Nilgiri]

This is a bind made possible only by the choices we have made and are continuing to make. Our sekortee state mindset is the prison of our own making that we insist is the fault of others. Sigh. This will end as predictably as the sun coming up tomorrow.

Hope you read and reply to "Saiyan" elsewhere. He wrote some pretty good stuff on the deep down "bunker state psyche". I am slowly working my way through it and responding.

The thing is if you have bunker psyche entrenched, it becomes very unidimensional and trust just never gets solid chance.

Core trust and all progress that stems from that needs maximum platter of options to influence the power craft (in at least a minimum manner of render unto caesar what is precisely caesar's), just like balanced diet.

Otherwise why should I trust Caesar if Caesar clearly does not trust me? and then goes out of his way to pile his plate with what should be mine on top?....just because his might makes right always.

In end this has to be 2 way street. The bunker state psyche is a rotten thing in end as it does not entertain formation of this stuff....one small echelon have purpose and meaning all figured out for the rest. This is why I bring up the North - South Korea spectrum a number of times already too.

Well anyway now this talk of food and Caesar, makes me want to get a Caesar's salad....gonna make one right now heh.

 

[FuturePAF]

The issue is trust is the most important thing (how do laypeople, intellectual ppl, and "do-er" people all trust those vested with being in charge)....and somewhat non-measurable thing at same time. You only see it in hindsight.

This is what in the end converts someone with relative means to put off 1% of his consumption or buffer at hand (and/or non-formal activity) and put it into something long term and above surface (exposed to accounting and taxing and so on).

More trust he has and senses around him, the more likely he is willing to do this. Every outsider of greater means then notices this and virtuous cycles start to grow and transfer to outer layers (that can be measured more objectively, capital formation, investment and then the larger numbers related to suppl side, GDP and so on).

But it is in shoddy state in Pakistan a long time. How does Pakistan address it? It has to prove it over time period of note. Competencies need to be left alone to cultivate and grow on their terms as far as possible..... rather than be over-molded to a power dynamic that is perceived by most of them as incompetent on the same matters. That's only way trust grows, its an X-factor thing deep inside in society.

But instead of this taking root, we have even in the microcosm of PDF wild swings on all kind of topics (one brigade batch of members while party favourite was more of darling of the establishment day after day bash India in all kind of disgusting ways....and then overnight after things go sour w.r.t establishment-PTI relationship.....suddenly flood forum with posts on I hope military gets lesson from India again like 1971...."reeeeee!").

It is deep mistrust phenomenon in the end (its pretty bad in India too btw, just Pakistan is different level of it I feel)....and it eventually led to what happened with old forum shutting down and so on (to add to earlier jettisoning/exodus of Turks, Indonesians, many Indians, many Pakistanis and others wholesale in earlier stages as trust arrangements again frayed and eroded entirely for little reason at the time.

In hindsight its costly I have found as I cannot bridge say two well-meaning people I respect.. the bridge got broke and too much water flowed underneath whats broken by now. I'm forced to talk to such folks separately....and its really a huge cost I cannot talk with all together.

Its long subject to get in the weeds about (and really its not worth it), but even this microcosm illustrated what afflicts the macrocosm. Microcosms like this dont really matter in end, its just bunch of online people with enough means to spare online. But the macrocosm matters a great deal....its a huge amount of people with little means getting stuck with all kind of bills and resentments....and core trust stays low.

Read what oscar is quoting here and that whole thread maybe:

Pakistan ‘is bankrupt’ and ‘sinking deeper every year’: Atif Mian

Pakistan ‘is bankrupt’ and ‘sinking deeper every year’: Atif Mian BR Web Desk February 12, 2024 Atif Mian, a noted Pakistani-American economist and currently a professor of Economics, Public Policy, and Finance at Princeton University, has said that Pakistan “is bankrupt” and “sinking deeper...

defencepk.com

Anyway @indushek can read this thread too w.r.t me bringing up HR and Capital again.

Indeed Trust is the essential ingredient, and as you pointed out, small investments that could go unnoticed, build up small enterprises and entrepreneurs such that a virtuous cycle takes hold and is only noted in hindsight.

Perhaps one more round of the same old same old, with what looks like PDM 2.0, coming by next week, and perhaps the same old economics policies will finally be beaten to death to prove the point.

 

[FuturePAF]

Hope you read and reply to "Saiyan" elsewhere. He wrote some pretty good stuff on the deep down "bunker state psyche". I am slowly working my way through it and responding.

The thing is if you have bunker psyche entrenched, it becomes very unidimensional and trust just never gets solid chance.

Core trust and all progress that stems from that needs maximum platter of options to influence the power craft (in at least a minimum manner of render unto caesar what is precisely caesar's), just like balanced diet.

Otherwise why should I trust Caesar if Caesar clearly does not trust me? and then goes out of his way to pile his plate with what should be mine on top?....just because his might makes right always.

In end this has to be 2 way street. The bunker state psyche is a rotten thing in end as it does not entertain formation of this stuff....one small echelon have purpose and meaning all figured out for the rest. This is why I bring up the North - South Korea spectrum a number of times already too.

Well anyway now this talk of food and Caesar, makes me want to get a Caesar's salad....gonna make one right now heh.

Please elaborate on the “bunker state psyche”.

What you describe is more akin to feudal lord eating his peasant’s crops, and even more so of his most entrepreneurial peasant’s crops. Hence, why work hard. The conundrum of communist countries in the 70s and 80s.

It reminded me of two videos I watched about working life in the late soviet period, and the kinds of corruptions. Inefficiency and various kinds of thief undermined the ability of the economy to function.

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[Nilgiri]

Please elaborate on the “bunker state psyche”.

What you describe is more akin to feudal lord eating his peasant’s crops, and even more so of his most entrepreneurial peasant’s crops. Hence, why work hard. The conundrum of communist countries in the 70s and 80s.

It reminded me of two videos I watched about working life in the late soviet period, and the kinds of corruptions. Inefficiency and various kinds of thief undermined the ability of the economy to function.

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

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For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

I'll move this (quoting you) to the munir thread a bit later. It's going to get off topic for this one.

 

[nahtanbob]

But as they say, dream big. So, I’m trying to understand the incentive model. 10 years is a short time but also a long time, and semi-conductors are in everything. There is a thing such as leapfrogging, so what might be a $10 billion investment now maybe a $1-2 billion investment in a decade.

There are a lot of situations where what you say is true. There are a lot of situations where $10 billion investment today would require $100 billion tomorrow. You cannot cherry pick things selectively.

 

[FuturePAF]

There are a lot of situations where what you say is true. There are a lot of situations where $10 billion investment today would require $100 billion tomorrow. You cannot cherry pick things selectively.

That’s true, but in this case, if we have to catch up to make the same product with the same sized chips, and China has excess capacity, perhaps we can buy their old chip plants at a lower price.

If we are to catch up in our industrialization, we need to be able to supply our down stream industries or even export, and that doesn’t require the latest chips.

 

[nahtanbob]

That’s true, but in this case, if we have to catch up to make the same product with the same sized chips, and China has excess capacity, perhaps we can buy their old chip plants at a lower price.

If we are to catch up in our industrialization, we need to be able to supply our down stream industries or even export, and that doesn’t require the latest chips.

In semiconductors older hardware is generally junk. Ask yourself how many 1980 era (in terms of design) semiconductors you need in products that purchase currently in 2023. It is a tiny fraction. In other words you are not chasing a high margin market.

I doubt China will even give up these factories. They need to employ the tens of millions of their people. If something is uneconomical for China it is probably uneconomical for most of the world.

Even if the factories are for "sale" what are the chances Pakistan has the capital and technical knowhow to purchase these factories ?

Once you purchase the factories you need to operate it to get a ROI

I get the basic gist of your argument. But this is a poor example

The best example is landline telephone networks. It got replaced by cellular technology

 

[FuturePAF]

In semiconductors older hardware is generally junk. Ask yourself how many 1980 era (in terms of design) semiconductors you need in products that purchase currently in 2023. It is a tiny fraction. In other words you are not chasing a high margin market.

I doubt China will even give up these factories. They need to employ the tens of millions of their people. If something is uneconomical for China it is probably uneconomical for most of the world.

Even if the factories are for "sale" what are the chances Pakistan has the capital and technical knowhow to purchase these factories ?

Once you purchase the factories you need to operate it to get a ROI

I get the basic gist of your argument. But this is a poor example

The best example is landline telephone networks. It got replaced by cellular technology

True, it’s not a perfect example, it you get eh gist of what I’m say. If in 10 years Pakistan is ready to purchase a factory, or attract an investor willing to produce chips, it will look at ROI and competitiveness, but with regards to the final product.

China and the East Asian semiconductor fabs are first (heck even the ASEAN fabs are already making the chips india is seeking to make), then there is being smarter, working chips into processes and products that makes them still useful for down stream products, and finally there is cheating; a captive market outside of legal agreements.

India and eventually Pakistan will have to work smarter with their domestic markets and find niches in the export market. Pakistan, coming late to the party, if it does will have to see where and if it can compete, and if the domestic market alone; which is expected to grow to 400 million by 2050, will be enough to be worth it.

Deep reforms that everyone sees are needed and the large domestic market with the demographic dividend are my two hopes for Pakistan. This is why, looking I’m just seeing how Pakistan can plan out skipping the “land lines” and going straight to the “cell phones” can be done. I honestly hope india does well, so the pressure to attention to compete pushes Pakistani to try to catch up, even if it takes decades to catch up on a per capita basis, the journey will be worthwhile (and lucrative for those of us looking to invest at the right time ; imagine if you could see where India was 30 years ago and invest in that knowing what was to come, but it came even faster because of how behind things were, that is Pakistan)

 

[nahtanbob]

True, it’s not a perfect example, it you get eh gist of what I’m say. If in 10 years Pakistan is ready to purchase a factory, or attract an investor willing to produce chips, it will look at ROI and competitiveness, but with regards to the final product.

China and the East Asian semiconductor fabs are first (heck even the ASEAN fabs are already making the chips india is seeking to make), then there is being smarter, working chips into processes and products that makes them still useful for down stream products, and finally there is cheating; a captive market outside of legal agreements.

India and eventually Pakistan will have to work smarter with their domestic markets and find niches in the export market. Pakistan, coming late to the party, if it does will have to see where and if it can compete, and if the domestic market alone; which is expected to grow to 400 million by 2050, will be enough to be worth it.

Deep reforms that everyone sees are needed and the large domestic market with the demographic dividend are my two hopes for Pakistan. This is why, looking I’m just seeing how Pakistan can plan out skipping the “land lines” and going straight to the “cell phones” can be done. I honestly hope india does well, so the pressure to attention to compete pushes Pakistani to try to catch up, even if it takes decades to catch up on a per capita basis, the journey will be worthwhile (and lucrative for those of us looking to invest at the right time ; imagine if you could see where India was 30 years ago and invest in that knowing what was to come, but it came even faster because of how behind things were, that is Pakistan)

I do not disagree with anything you say

You are assuming globalization regime that helped China & India for the past 30 years is still around for Pakistan

India & China took jobs from USA and Europe. Pakistan might never get the opportunity to take jobs from India & China.

 

[FuturePAF]

I do not disagree with anything you say

You are assuming globalization regime that helped China & India for the past 30 years is still around for Pakistan

India & China took jobs from USA and Europe. Pakistan might never get the opportunity to take jobs from India & China.

That is a possibility. The barriers may go up and globalization may not be as fluid as it is now. But if Pakistan can get its act together and leverage its improving economy and growing population, it can set its own terms.

In a world of heightened competition, they will take the best of what ever is offered I suppose.

 

[indushek]

The issue is trust is the most important thing (how do laypeople, intellectual ppl, and "do-er" people all trust those vested with being in charge)....and somewhat non-measurable thing at same time. You only see it in hindsight.

This is what in the end converts someone with relative means to put off 1% of his consumption or buffer at hand (and/or non-formal activity) and put it into something long term and above surface (exposed to accounting and taxing and so on).

More trust he has and senses around him, the more likely he is willing to do this. Every outsider of greater means then notices this and virtuous cycles start to grow and transfer to outer layers (that can be measured more objectively, capital formation, investment and then the larger numbers related to suppl side, GDP and so on).

But it is in shoddy state in Pakistan a long time. How does Pakistan address it? It has to prove it over time period of note. Competencies need to be left alone to cultivate and grow on their terms as far as possible..... rather than be over-molded to a power dynamic that is perceived by most of them as incompetent on the same matters. That's only way trust grows, its an X-factor thing deep inside in society.

But instead of this taking root, we have even in the microcosm of PDF wild swings on all kind of topics (one brigade batch of members while party favourite was more of darling of the establishment day after day bash India in all kind of disgusting ways....and then overnight after things go sour w.r.t establishment-PTI relationship.....suddenly flood forum with posts on I hope military gets lesson from India again like 1971...."reeeeee!").

It is deep mistrust phenomenon in the end (its pretty bad in India too btw, just Pakistan is different level of it I feel)....and it eventually led to what happened with old forum shutting down and so on (to add to earlier jettisoning/exodus of Turks, Indonesians, many Indians, many Pakistanis and others wholesale in earlier stages as trust arrangements again frayed and eroded entirely for little reason at the time.

In hindsight its costly I have found as I cannot bridge say two well-meaning people I respect.. the bridge got broke and too much water flowed underneath whats broken by now. I'm forced to talk to such folks separately....and its really a huge cost I cannot talk with all together.

Its long subject to get in the weeds about (and really its not worth it), but even this microcosm illustrated what afflicts the macrocosm. Microcosms like this dont really matter in end, its just bunch of online people with enough means to spare online. But the macrocosm matters a great deal....its a huge amount of people with little means getting stuck with all kind of bills and resentments....and core trust stays low.

Read what oscar is quoting here and that whole thread maybe:

Pakistan ‘is bankrupt’ and ‘sinking deeper every year’: Atif Mian

Pakistan ‘is bankrupt’ and ‘sinking deeper every year’: Atif Mian BR Web Desk February 12, 2024 Atif Mian, a noted Pakistani-American economist and currently a professor of Economics, Public Policy, and Finance at Princeton University, has said that Pakistan “is bankrupt” and “sinking deeper...

defencepk.com

Anyway @indushek can read this thread too w.r.t me bringing up HR and Capital again.

Lot of it is going over my head lol, but trying to still. So haven't said a thing till now haha