China preparing for 'protracted' war, says think tank

[Yommie]

Chinese do not believe violence is the solution. Violence should only be the last resort.

 

[jzrmt]

Chinese do not believe violence is the solution. Violence should only be the last resort.

Always good to talk peace while preparing for unlimited war
and sending the enemies to eternal youth.

 

[Beijingwalker]

Geographically Taiwan is not defendable, this is the reason that Taiwan has never been an independent country or kingdom in the whole Chinese history while all other Chinese provinces once had.

 

[Hendarto]

I know what I'm talking about. Soviets only "chickened" out because they wanted China to bleed, which China did.

No, you don't know what you are talking about. China didn't bleed. The number of casualties is more or less equal if you include the South Korean casualties. Yup, Taiwan is an island. Good luck trying to resupply them from sea while running a Chinese blockade Beside Okinawa will be gone at the first sight of hostility

 

[Beijingwalker]

Ukraine's biggest strength is it has a landboder with Nato which enables uninterrupted supplies freely flowing into Ukraine directly from Nato countries, it's not the case for Taiwan.

 

[Beijingwalker]

China has already had the world biggest navy and seized over half of world shipbuilding capacity.

 

[Yommie]

Ukraine's biggest strength is it has a landboder with Nato which enables uninterrupted supplies freely flowing into Ukraine directly from Nato countries, it's not the case for Taiwan.

Ukraine is fairly big compared to Russia in terms of both area and population. By comparison, Taiwan is tiny compared to China in terms of area and population.

The West didn't even bother to support Georgia against Russia because they know Georgia is too small to have a chance.

 

[jzrmt]

China will start with their Kinmen island to test waters, so to speak. Kinmen is very difficult for Taiwan to defend.

With due respect, China will hit with shock and awe.

Real shock and awe totally unlike that of America self declared shock and awe of Iraq.

Attacking Kinmen island will be unnecessary declaration of war and give unnecessary warning.


More likely than not, the air and naval bases on Japan and Okinanwa and Guam will all be taken out in 10 minutes .

First Strike: China's Missile Threat to U.S. Bases in Asia​

Followed up with periodic hits from to prevent airfields from being repaired , and to take out assets not taken out in the first strikes.

China’s Air-Launched Land Attack Cruise Missile Capability​

There are advantages in developing an ALCM capability. An ALCM has enormous utility in the initial stages of a conflict and is likely to be used in armed conflict, as it can eliminate the enemy’s air defences as well as air bases. It can also be delivered at substantial standoff ranges. The PLAAF is only a recent entrant into the club of countries capable of long-range bomber operations. The only two other states with significantly greater experience are the United States and the Russian Federation.[25] China’s long-range air-launched cruise missile capabilities pose the greatest threat to static targets and slow-moving concentration of forces or troops, rather than airborne targets. The CJ-20 is not a threat to airborne targets because of their speed and manoeuvrability, making them difficult targets to destroy.[26]

For instance, the PLAAF’s KD-20, also known as CJ-20 ALCM missile, is geared for striking land targets. It is an air-launched land attack cruise missile with a range of 1500 km. CJ-20 forms the payload of the PLAAF’s Xian H-6 strategic bomber (See Table 4). The variant of the H-6 strategic bomber, known as the H-6K, presents an even greater challenge than the original H-6H/M variant that first emerged in 2006. If estimates and predictions are accurate, the H-6K has a substantial combat radius of 2,500 km and when equipped with the CJ-20, gives it a menacing striking range of 4,000 km, which is 40-percent more than its predecessor.
Developing strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies.

First Strike: China's Missile Threat to U.S. Bases in Asia

Developing strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies.

www.cnas.org

And American carriers within the 2nd island chain be hit by multiple AShCMs and from DFs

Chinese Long-Range Ballistic Missiles Struck Moving Ship In South China Sea: Report​

The test could represent the first full demonstration of a real Chinese long-range anti-ship ballistic missile capability.
www.thedrive.com

Chinese Long-Range Ballistic Missiles Struck Moving Ship In South China Sea: Report​

The test could represent the first full demonstration of a real Chinese long-range anti-ship ballistic missile capability.​

BY JOSEPH TREVITHICK NOVEMBER 16, 2020


At least some of the ballistic missiles that China's People's Liberation Army fired into the South China Sea during an exercise earlier this year, which you can read about more in the War Zone's initial story on those drills, reportedly hit a moving target ship. If true, this would be the country's first known demonstration of an actual long-range anti-ship ballistic missile capability, which could significantly change the operational calculus for any potential opponent, including the United States, in the disputed maritime region and elsewhere in the Pacific.
The South China Morning Post reported last week that Wang Xiangsui, a retired People's Liberation Army (PLA) officer, had said that one DF-26B intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) and one DF-21D medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) had struck the target vessel as it sailed near the Paracel Island chain during the August exercise. Wang, who has been described as "well-connected" in the past, is best known as one of the co-authors of the 1999 book Unrestricted Warfare, which covered various asymmetric means to undermine and defeat countries that were technologically superior to China. It has become a highly influential text, and general concept, in national security circles.


"We launched the DF-21 and DF-26, and the missiles hit a vessel sailing south of the Paracel Islands," Wang said during a closed-door gathering in China's eastern Zhejiang province in October, according to the South China Morning Post. “Shortly after that, an American military attaché in Geneva, [Switzerland] complained and said it would lead to severe consequences if the missiles hit an American aircraft carrier. They see this as a show of force. But we are doing this because of their provocation."

Wang does not appear to have given any details about the target ship, its construction, how fast it might have been moving, or how the PLA may have cued the missiles their target.
It remains unclear exactly how many missiles the PLA fired during the exercise on Aug. 26. South China Morning Post's initial report had indicated that two weapons had been launched, one DF-26B and one DF-21D, from sites in China's northwestern Qinghai province and in Zhejiang, respectively.
I will not talk of DF21s or DF26s as that making you so uptight and I hate to induce constipation in you.
At least not at the very beginning.

Just run of the mill ShCMs that China got in abundance. That range far far beyond the range of America Harpoon and other associated crap

A lot more reach, and a lot more bang, and lots and lots of them too.
And all those will touch you before you even know that they are there, and way way before you can launch at China.

Chinese have about 3,000 of these kind of AShCMs.

In the form of Mach 3–4 YJ-12s carrying 400–500 kg semi shaped charge warheads, fired outside the AEGIS cover. The YJ-12 can also do evasive maneuvers to avoid anti-missile threats.

YJ-12 - Wikipedia

There is also the YJ-18 with reach exceeding Aegis cover. YJ-18 will start off at sub Mach 1. Until about 20 km from target , it will sprint at Mach 3–4 to deliver good news to the carrier .

China's YJ-18 Supersonic Anti-Ship Cruise Missile: America's Nightmare?

This Chinese description relates that the missile’s great strength is its “亚超结合的独特动力” [subsonic and supersonic combined unique propulsion]. Another term applied to this design is “双速制反舰导弹” [dual speed control ASCM]. As explained in the article, it is projected that YJ-18 would have an initial subsonic phase estimated at .8 Mach similar to the Klub of about 180km, but 20km from the target would unleash the supersonic sprint vehicle at speed of Mach 2.5 to 3. The “dual speed” function allows the system to realize certain advantages of subsonic cruise missiles, such as their “relatively long range, light weight and universality …” but also takes the chief advantage of supersonic ASCMs as well, namely the ability to “大幅压缩敌方的反应时间” [radically compress the enemy’s reaction time].

The Chinese article relates another advantage of the “dual speed” approach. Just as the missile comes into contact with the ship’s defenses, it “sheds the medium stage …,” thus simultaneously and dramatically altering both its speed and also its radar reflection, “which would impact the fire control calculation.” The likelihood that YJ-18 improves upon the Klub missile’s “digitization, automation, as well as providing more intelligent flight control and navigation technology” is attributed in the Chinese article to a recent Jane’s report.






EVEN I NEVER SAID CHINA WILL SINK THE CBGs

WHO THE FCCK CARE ABOUT SINKING CBGs

WHEN THE SHIPS AND CARRIERS ARE BURNING FROM END TO END,
FROM THE FUEL ON BOARD AND ORDNANCE ON BOARD , AND THE PAINT
AND THE FLESH AND FAT AND OIL OF American MEN AND WOMEN

THEY ALL CAN REMAIN AFLOAT FOREVER TO GIVE SOLACE TO America AND THEIR RUNNING DOGGIES AND BROWN NOSERS THAT NONE OF THEM SUNK AT ALL



Any time USA want to tango, China will tango with USA

A hit from Chinese AShCM will be sufficient for it to be over for any USA carrier.

CHINESE AShCM CARRY EVEN MORE BANG AND HELLFIRE THAN THAT RUSSIAN P-800.
AND EXPECT AT LEAST 100 MISSILES BE HITTING THAT CARRIER, AND AT LEAST 10 TO EACH OF THE BURKES AND TICOS

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Estimated China got 3000++ of AShCMs

But it is more likely Chinese be firing 100 such missiles at single USA carrier.

But it is more likely Chinese be firing 100 such missiles at single USA carrier.

But it is more likely Chinese be firing 100 such missiles at single USA carrier.

No shit about bulkheads and spaces to contain the hellfire that will likely engulf the entire carrier.
WHEN ENTIRE SHIP CANNOT CONTAIN THE HELLFIRE, DONT TALK CRAP THAT BULKHEADS AND SPACES CAN CONTAIN THAT KIND OF HELLFIRE


And not just the warhead, there will be 2–3 tons of missiles coming behind the warhead at Mach 3 tearing into the bulkheads and ordnance and aviation fuel and the poor men and women in the carrier. Those 2–3 tons of missile body will be tearing in the bulkheads faster and more deadly then APFSDS. Andf carrying its own unburned fuel to add to the fun.
Even steel will burn when hit with hell fire and tons of steel and debris coming in at Mach 3. The aviation fuel, and paint on walls, the bombs and ordnance will all cook off and add to the huge huge fire inside the carrier. Regardless if carrier under Condition Zebra or Donkey or Jackass.
The brave sailors in those carriers will not care or worry and be happy that their carrier not sinking. And only burning and burning from one end to the other end


USA need not worry too much of DF26s DF21s any more.

Or even of the 3000++ AShCMs of China, including many Mach3s


As long as USA carriers and Burkes and Ticos stay out of 2nd Island Chain, they will remain safe.

Meet the latest.

This baby is call the YJ-21 , 鹰击-21 or Eagle Strike 21


https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/04/yj-21-chinas-new-anti-ship-missile-will-make-the-navy-sweat/



AND OF COURSE, EXPECT 300+++ DF21s and DF26s that be raining down from directly over head at Mach 10



USA fanboys then come about foaming at the mouth that should their precious carriers be hit, they use nukes.

They think China got measly 200++ nukes.
Just like the 5000 km China underground GREAT WALL, contain only piddling 200++ nukes?
USA not realising China nukes are thermonuclear nukes and immediately usable as Chinese nukes are done to YuMing configuration.

USA must think why with only 200++ nukes, China can fire off 2000++ warheads express delivery via DF5 , DF31AG, DF-41 and JL2 and JL3 and much more.

Perhaps they think most of the warheads are delivering dim sum, sweet and sour chicken and tea bags.

Should USA fire just one nuke at China or chinese forces, all the USA bases in Japan and Okinawa and Singapore and Diego Garcia and in USA be turned into seas and lakes of multicolor glass.



And for the next hour, those air bases and naval bases in Japan Guam Okinawa and Phillipine and anywhere else be hit by cruise missiiles to take out assets not taken out by DFs

Then and there, invastion and attack of Taiwan will commence.

 

[War Lord]

My guy just in the start what if china launches few hundred of conventional ballistic missiles ? On military sites alone. Clear out as much as in first wave with lowering your loses.
Without even shooting anything deploying its fleet around taiwan at safe distance away from direct and close attacks and set it as a NO GO zone by air or sea ? What you think will be the outcome ? Its a island with very limited national resources to sustain those 25+ million citizens.
US is all happy just like US is sending secondary systems in ukraine against russians when china actually pushes for that you wont see much man power being diverted from the west.

You put a lot of faith in the Chinese military, which hasn't fought a major war in over 30 years. It failed to win against Vietnam 30+ years ago or against the US 70+ years ago. Neither has it been able to retake Taiwan for over half a century.

Going back to what you said....it'll be obvious if/when China moves it's missile launchers. Taiwan has a robust defense around the island which can intercept most, if not all, Chinese missiles.

If China sends "hundreds" of missiles then so will Taiwan.

Taiwan has missiles that can reach up to 600 km and is working on missiles that can reach up to 2,000 km practically able to hit anywhere in Eastern China.

Example:



It also has the Patriot ABM system, which has destroyed multiple Russian hypersonic cruise missiles so far, as well as home grown ABM systems with a range of 300 km.

They're also building more ABM sites. They also have loitering munitions that have a range of 1,000km and can fly for up to 100 hours, at a speed of 185 km/hr.

I really wouldn't underestimate Taiwan and overestimate China.

China recently said that it doesn't care if it losses 100-600M people in a war with Taiwan. You can clearly see through this "statement" that they expect to lose millions, if not hundreds of millions, of people.

 

[Yommie]

You put a lot of faith in the Chinese military, which hasn't fought a major war in over 30 years. It failed to win against Vietnam 30+ years ago or against the US 70+ years ago. Neither has it been able to retake Taiwan for over half a century.

Going back to what you said....it'll be obvious if/when China moves it's missile launchers. Taiwan has a robust defense around the island which can intercept most, if not all, Chinese missiles.

If China sends "hundreds" of missiles then so will Taiwan.

Taiwan has missiles that can reach up to 600 km and is working on missiles that can reach up to 2,000 km practically able to hit anywhere in Eastern China.

Example:

View attachment 19345

It also has the Patriot ABM system, which has destroyed multiple Russian hypersonic cruise missiles so far, as well as home grown ABM systems with a range of 300 km.

They're also building more ABM sites. They also have loitering munitions that have a range of 1,000km and can fly for up to 100 hours, at a speed of 185 km/hr.

I really wouldn't underestimate Taiwan and overestimate China.

China recently said that it doesn't care if it losses 100-600M people in a war with Taiwan. You can clearly see through this "statement" that they expect to lose millions, if not hundreds of millions, of people.

Those missiles ain't gonna be able to reach Kashgar which is where Chinese launch devastating air and missile strikes from.

 

[Beijingwalker]

You put a lot of faith in the Chinese military, which hasn't fought a major war in over 30 years. It failed to win against Vietnam 30+ years ago or against the US 70+ years ago. Neither has it been able to retake Taiwan for over half a century.

Going back to what you said....it'll be obvious if/when China moves it's missile launchers. Taiwan has a robust defense around the island which can intercept most, if not all, Chinese missiles.

If China sends "hundreds" of missiles then so will Taiwan.

Taiwan has missiles that can reach up to 600 km and is working on missiles that can reach up to 2,000 km practically able to hit anywhere in Eastern China.

Example:

View attachment 19345

It also has the Patriot ABM system, which has destroyed multiple Russian hypersonic cruise missiles so far, as well as home grown ABM systems with a range of 300 km.

They're also building more ABM sites. They also have loitering munitions that have a range of 1,000km and can fly for up to 100 hours, at a speed of 185 km/hr.

I really wouldn't underestimate Taiwan and overestimate China.

China recently said that it doesn't care if it losses 100-600M people in a war with Taiwan. You can clearly see through this "statement" that they expect to lose millions, if not hundreds of millions, of people.

China has the world biggest missile program, with the world runaway leading industrial juggernaut backing, how many missiles do you think a tiny island can take?

 

[War Lord]

Those missiles ain't gonna be able to reach Kashgar which is where Chinese launch devastating air and missile strikes from.

Those missiles from "Kashgar" will take time to reach Taiwan, making it easier to spot them while they're on their way.

PLA would most likely shoot missiles at Taiwan as near as possible.

 

[Yommie]

Those missiles from "Kashgar" will take time to reach Taiwan, making it easier to spot them while they're on their way.

PLA would most likely shoot missiles at Taiwan as near as possible.

Speed is irrelevant. Taiwan under blockade don't have a lot of AD.

 

[War Lord]

China has the world biggest missile program, with the world runaway leading industrial juggernaut backing, how many missiles do you think a tiny island can take?

Like I said earlier, they can take 100+.

And you guys aren't the best at quality either. For every 100 missiles you launch I expect anywhere from 1 to 10% failure rate.

And you'll get bombed in return too. Your economy will tank and most of your industrial base will be destroyed also.

 

[Beijingwalker]

Those missiles from "Kashgar" will take time to reach Taiwan, making it easier to spot them while they're on their way.

PLA would most likely shoot missiles at Taiwan as near as possible.

Why missiles from "Kashgar"? what you have been smoking? Taiwan is just across a narrow strait from Fujian.