من هی تحمل میکنم نرینم به توهمات شما اما نمیشه
I really wanted not to do this, but I think it's time for an assessment of the Israel-Iran war in the last 2 years.
What has Israel achieved, with the help of the US?
1. Killed over 1,100 Iranians in 12 days (more than the daily average in Gaza). Confirmed by Iran.
2. Eliminated C&C of the IRGC in half an hour. Over 30 high-ranking officials were killed.
3. Eliminated our anti-West president
4. Eliminated a large part of our IADS
5. Eliminated an unknown number of IRIAF jets, helicopters and fuel tankers
6. Destroyed our oil depots and hit two of our refineries
7. The US destroyed our nuclear program, which, including the indirect cost of sanctions, had cost us over a trillion dollar to build and operate throughout the years, and it will take us several months to years to rebuild.
8. Damaged Hezbollah to the point that it is no longer a factor in Lebanon
9. Pulled off possibly the largest asymmetric warfare against Iran from inside Iran, something that the IRGC boasted to do for decades but failed to perform even one such successful operation inside Israel
10. Eliminated nearly all of our cards for negotiating with the West, except for the HEU
11. Eliminated about 20-30 missiles launchers, which can be replaced
12. Forced us to use 10%-20% of our MRBM stock
13. Intercepted nearly all of our drones, and half of our BMs.
Casualties: +1,100
Damage: Tens of billions of dollars at least, hundreds of billions of dollars if you include the sanctions we endured over our nuclear program
What has Iran achieved?
1. Hit a 15 million dollar SATCOM in Qatar that will be replaced soon
2. Hit Bazan oil refinery in Haifa, and possibly two power plants (confirmed visually through videos). Damage is estimated to be $3m dollars per day and repair is going to take 2-3 months. So, 200-300 million dollars.
3. Hit Kirya and a few residential areas. I'm sure some air bases have been hit as well but there's no data to confirm this
4. Killed 28 Israelis, and only one off-duty Israeli soldier. Confirmed by Israel.
Casualties: Fewer than 100
Damage: Less than $10 billion, including the cost of war.
You have no proof to claim that there were direct hits on Dimona. You're pulling this one out of your ass.
So, Israel has achieved 10x-100x more than Iran. Did it win the war? Not really, but that's only because they had miscalculated
the response of the Iranian people, not the Iranian regime.
The Iranian regime played exactly as calculated by them to the T.
Some people say that Israel did not achieve their declared goals such as regime change. Well, sure. But Iran continuously said that Israel would cease to exist after war with Iran. Did we achieve that? Didn't we say that there will be no Israel after TP3? Haven't we threatened to destroy Israel for like half a century? Give me a break. Israel achieved a higher percent of her goals than Iran did.
Also,
the regime in Iran will be toppled soon. It has all the factors for a regime that is on the verge of collapse.
Food prices have increased by 20%-30% just last month after the war. As we speak,
Tehran has run out of drinking water and
they have cut off water in Tehran. Even affluent neighborhoods of Tehran where influential politicians and businessmen live do not have drinking water as we speak.
Pardis, a satellite city of Tehran, has not had drinking water for the last 48 hours. Add to this
electricity cuts since May, where people do not have electricity for 2 days every other day. Add to this air pollution as well, which is so bad that thousands of people had to go to the ER.
The regime is begging to negotiate with the US and E3 now. It has been confirmed by both Iran and the Europeans that Iranian delegation will meet with the E3 on Saturday. Per the US, It is either unconditional surrender or the snapback mechanism.
Khamenei said: "There will be no war, and there will be no negotiations". Guess what? There was a war, they did hit our nuclear infrastructure, and we are still negotiating with them.
So, if you think this is over, you are clearly wrong.
This has just started to reach the final stage. They are turning Iran into Syria II and the regime is paralyzed, doesn't know what to do and has no strategy for getting out of the situation.
Iran may have survived the 12-day battle, but the war is still on and has just started.
