Opinion: India Pakistan near conflict - Escalation management non-existent

[That_Guy]

How authentic are we looking at it coming from the source?
The actual ideals are fairly authentic and match assessments of many but it is the timeline of it which matters.

The documents look fake to me.

They don't match how other official leaked documents looks.

They're also bizarrely written.

I'm willing to bet some nationalist idiot wrote it and is trying to pass them off as real.

 

[Mrc]

Without aircover a desert offensive in thar, less said is better

 

[Dalit]

[Unconfirmed]

A classified India–Pakistan National Intelligence Assessment Report prepared by the CIA has been leaked on The Black Vault, a Discord community notorious for releasing controversial U.S. intelligence documents, including material on Russia in 2023.

The full assessment spans 13 pages, but only the cover page and the 'Report Summary' have surfaced, with the leaker demanding $3,000 for the remaining 12 pages.

Even so, the summary contains the key findings and evaluations of the report, including a bombshell revelation: India is reportedly planning an imminent incursion across the international border, drawing inspiration from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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Nuke tipped Nasr is waiting for Indian battalions.

 

[Mrc]

Point 3 is simply not true, that's not where president Trump is pointing when he said significant oil reservoir

Point 4 and 5 is contradicted by point 6

And than point 6 is contradictied by point 7

In short badly written fake and has no point in summary

 

[Oscar]

The documents look fake to me.

They don't match how other official leaked documents looks.

They're also bizarrely written.

I'm willing to bet some nationalist idiot wrote it and is trying to pass them off as real.

That’s my point - the documents leak makes little sense and coming from the usual suspects for pushing estab stuff

There IS truth in some of the dots - but trying to make crows from it by passing it off as CIA is meh.

 

[TallGuy]

Sorry! next war will be started by Pakistan (As per our Field Marshall)

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

BREAKING NEWS!!!!!!!.........Operation Sindoor PART 2 has started:

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[MirageV3ff]

Fuk you and Battlion. You can ask any mod. I am not that dude.

You just can´t take the truth.

This is not about Ummah get the fuk outta here but it is about being Gangsta enough to be about this life which you aren´t.

A true gangsta will use whatever he can to gain advantage he is about that life but you aren´t. If Pakistan fails to make several regional alliances it will fall in that war it is as simple as that

A saudi telling us about "being gangsta" and "using every advantage" when it all is does is throw money at the yanks and beg them to solve their problems

 

[Rational Philosopher]

A saudi telling us about "being gangsta" and "using every advantage" when it all is does is throw money at the yanks and beg them to solve their problems

That's not a Saudi, it's the Afghan larper who has multiple accounts

 

[313Ghazi]

Fake or real - doesn't matter. Any Pakistani who thinks we can survive as a nation without the complete destruction of India is living in a fools paradise.

Park the notions of escalation ladders and strategic restraint - always go for the kill, no matter what.

 

[Raj-Hindustani]

Fake or real - doesn't matter. Any Pakistani who thinks we can survive as a nation without the complete destruction of India is living in a fools paradise.

Park the notions of escalation ladders and strategic restraint - always go for the kill, no matter what.

Pakistan's geographical area does not support it your claims.

 

[Ak01]

[Unconfirmed]

A classified India–Pakistan National Intelligence Assessment Report prepared by the CIA has been leaked on The Black Vault, a Discord community notorious for releasing controversial U.S. intelligence documents, including material on Russia in 2023.

The full assessment spans 13 pages, but only the cover page and the 'Report Summary' have surfaced, with the leaker demanding $3,000 for the remaining 12 pages.

Even so, the summary contains the key findings and evaluations of the report, including a bombshell revelation: India is reportedly planning an imminent incursion across the international border, drawing inspiration from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

View attachment 140717View attachment 140718

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For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

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it all looked so promising but whoever made this slipped up in one place lol. One tiny mistake gave it away.

He referred to the air force as "PAF".

I dug through the CIA archives and looked through multiple papers and the paf has always been referred to fully. That would make sense here too

 

[That_Guy]

What worries me is that India is attempting to rewrite history.

Normally, this wouldn't be an issues as nations do this all the time; turning their clearly defeats into victories.

The issue this time is that because India is clearly misleading the Indian public, the next conflict may end up being a full scale war, because Indians are overly hyped up on their own seeming invincibility, because they think Pakistan lies and India always tells the truth, not knowing they're victims of the largest propaganda machine in the world.

So long as ultranationalists, and Hindutva extremists are in power, the possibility of war increases every year.

 

[fitpOsitive]

It seems as sabre rattling is going on at a much heightened level from both sides. It also seems as what's coming from India on its media and by its leadership is an all out war, without escalation protocols in place. We'll go deep inside recent events from both sides and open mentions of "war soon" narrative on world media.

Since India has been losing its credibility all over the globe on various issues, it might start to think that the only option to "change world media's attention" is to initiate the "paused" conflict with Pakistan. Just like their air chief started a false narrative of destroying Pakistani jets, just to turn media's attention away.

It is also important to note, Pakistan's economy is almost ready for a vertical flight in the next couple of years with US becoming the largest strategic export and economic partner. In just 3-4 years time, Pakistan's GDP will start to rebalance with its internal efforts on reforms. Therefore, with the GDP increase, will come big increases in defense budgets. So for India, to manage Pakistan in a much stronger capacity with near $20 billion defense budget will become extremely hard. That's why the current timing helps them from this side too.

It should be considered that this time, that India, on purpose, will not listen to Trump or anyone because they have to PROVE to the world that they are a big power without care for any other country. This is a dangerous territory and it almost certainly could mean a nuclear exchange as Pakistan doesn't have strategic depth and secondly, our forces are 1/3rd the size of India. Now to assess how this situation is unfolding, we will start to analyze recent events and statements as they all seem towards war preparations:

Indian Army Chief made media address in a seminar two days ago and said:

1) Next India - Pakistan conflict will happen soon. War is on a pause. No ceasefire. Either side can fire one or salvo of missiles when they want to resume the conflict.

2) Pak Army: A few days ago said, we'll start from the East this time

3) Indian media constantly mentions nuclear installations suggesting India Pakistan can attack each other's nuclear installations because the agreement not to do that, was set back in the 80's when both sides weren't nuclear powers. So at this time, India feels a war is a war.

4) Indian media hype on a next generation Bunker Buster bomb to be used with its missiles. They have previously mentioned trying to attack an area with Brahmos called "Kerana hills" near Sargodha where they think Pakistan has its strategic weapons. This new bunker buster bomb is for deep penetration into such under ground areas.

5) Modi said: A "new" normal has been established, referring to strategic missile use.

6) Pakistan Army Chief and the Army: This time, we'll start from the East and move West. Referring to Indian states with more economic and warfare resources they've kept away from the border.

Here are some points from my side, which I believe you might also agree with:

1. Pakistan’s economic upward trajectory? With the current corrupt establishment and political elite, such progress is impossible for at least the next 100 years.
2. The core issue in India — and to some extent in Pakistan — is joblessness. Tens of millions under the age of 30 are unemployed, with millions more joining the ranks each year. Any escalations by either India or Pakistan are nothing more than diversion tactics.
3. Regime change in Pakistan and Bangladesh is complete. In India, it’s currently in progress. In my view, Rahul Gandhi is likely to be India’s future prime minister—provided he isn’t assassinated.
4. Pakistan’s military and establishment are complicit with every enemy of the country — both internal and external. Why then do they still claim to be the nation’s guardians or protectors?

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

It seems as sabre rattling is going on at a much heightened level from both sides. It also seems as what's coming from India on its media and by its leadership is an all out war, without escalation protocols in place. We'll go deep inside recent events from both sides and open mentions of "war soon" narrative on world media.

Since India has been losing its credibility all over the globe on various issues, it might start to think that the only option to "change world media's attention" is to initiate the "paused" conflict with Pakistan. Just like their air chief started a false narrative of destroying Pakistani jets, just to turn media's attention away.

It is also important to note, Pakistan's economy is almost ready for a vertical flight in the next couple of years with US becoming the largest strategic export and economic partner. In just 3-4 years time, Pakistan's GDP will start to rebalance with its internal efforts on reforms. Therefore, with the GDP increase, will come big increases in defense budgets. So for India, to manage Pakistan in a much stronger capacity with near $20 billion defense budget will become extremely hard. That's why the current timing helps them from this side too.

It should be considered that this time, that India, on purpose, will not listen to Trump or anyone because they have to PROVE to the world that they are a big power without care for any other country. This is a dangerous territory and it almost certainly could mean a nuclear exchange as Pakistan doesn't have strategic depth and secondly, our forces are 1/3rd the size of India. Now to assess how this situation is unfolding, we will start to analyze recent events and statements as they all seem towards war preparations:

Indian Army Chief made media address in a seminar two days ago and said:

1) Next India - Pakistan conflict will happen soon. War is on a pause. No ceasefire. Either side can fire one or salvo of missiles when they want to resume the conflict.

2) Pak Army: A few days ago said, we'll start from the East this time

3) Indian media constantly mentions nuclear installations suggesting India Pakistan can attack each other's nuclear installations because the agreement not to do that, was set back in the 80's when both sides weren't nuclear powers. So at this time, India feels a war is a war.

4) Indian media hype on a next generation Bunker Buster bomb to be used with its missiles. They have previously mentioned trying to attack an area with Brahmos called "Kerana hills" near Sargodha where they think Pakistan has its strategic weapons. This new bunker buster bomb is for deep penetration into such under ground areas.

5) Modi said: A "new" normal has been established, referring to strategic missile use.

6) Pakistan Army Chief and the Army: This time, we'll start from the East and move West. Referring to Indian states with more economic and warfare resources they've kept away from the border.

Bro, I hope and pray that you are VERY right about the Pakistani economy taking off Inshallah...........