Opinion: India Pakistan near conflict - Escalation management non-existent

samsite84 said:
Differing perspectives
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What's the new opinion? We've been hearing opinions, 0 progress. Nothing was shot down, may be something was shot down, losing jets is part of a war, we may have lost some jets, yes, we lost six jets!!!

3 months later: of, we forgot, yesterday on Play Stations flight simulator, we destroyed 6 PAF jets!
 
RajaBaja said:
Hardeep Singh is their oil minister, he's doing a media talk. They asked him about Russian oil and what if it gets sanctioned?

He answered in typical Indian style and made up the answer. Without proof, he said "Turkey bought 25% of the Russian oil, then it was China, EU and India. We know Turkey doesn't buy oil from Russia due to NATO and USA. Then he said, we have more oil available from Iran. Essentially, he blamed Turkey and EU for buying Russian oil and shifted the blame from India to Turkey primarily. These people can lie.

I am surprised he didn't throw Pakistan in there. They dislike Turkey because it's strategic relationship with Pakistan.
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The Indian Oil Ministry isn't wrong. In fiscal year 2024, Turkey imported 26% of "refined oil products" from Russia.1 It then imports 20% of Russia's crude oil, down from 50% as it replaced some from Brazil. 2 It then refines and exports to Europe as long as it complies with the $60 barrel cap set by G7.3

1 https://energyandcleanair.org/march...of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/

2 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-...ifies-Crude-Oil-Imports-Away-From-Russia.html

3 https://www.reuters.com/markets/com...g-russian-urals-crude-sources-say-2025-04-16/
 
PakFactor said:
The Indian Oil Ministry isn't wrong. In fiscal year 2024, Turkey imported 26% of "refined oil products" from Russia.1 It then imports 20% of Russia's crude oil, down from 50% as it replaced some from Brazil. 2 It then refines and exports to Europe as long as it complies with the $60 barrel cap set by G7.3

1 https://energyandcleanair.org/march...of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/

2 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-...ifies-Crude-Oil-Imports-Away-From-Russia.html

3 https://www.reuters.com/markets/com...g-russian-urals-crude-sources-say-2025-04-16/
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That's fine. Europeans imported oil from Russia also, despite sanctions. That's besides the point. Anyone can do business if they get a waiver. But you can't on one hand be a top partner in 2/3 alliances and on the other hand, going against that alliance. India's economic growth commitment for 30 years was to stand with the West as a time tested ally.

Well they didn't even let the time test it. The first time the West asked them something, they declined. So the partnership is down the drain already. The other issue is, when you are asked a question about you, you answer it. You don't bring in Abdul for Ranjeet's question. They shift the blame to now add Turkey to the bad guy list and come clean. As always, deceptive tactics.
 
RajaBaja said:
That's fine. Europeans imported oil from Russia also, despite sanctions. That's besides the point. Anyone can do business if they get a waiver. But you can't on one hand be a top partner in 2/3 alliances and on the other hand, going against that alliance. India's economic growth commitment for 30 years was to stand with the West as a time tested ally.

Well they didn't even let the time test it. The first time the West asked them something, they declined. So the partnership is down the drain already. The other issue is, when you are asked a question about you, you answer it. You don't bring in Abdul for Ranjeet's question. They shift the blame to now add Turkey to the bad guy list and come clean. As always, deceptive tactics.
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The Quad has no written agreement or formal declaration stating that its members are obligated to fight China; there is not even a mutual defense clause among its four members. According to the Australians, it's just a forum to promote the "free and open Indo-Pacific" policy.

Thus, I fail to see and have yet to be shown by PDF members where, in writing, India was asked to be committed to or wanted to be committed to standing with the West in a confrontation against China; India's only policy is to exert some semblance of pressure on China; that's it.

* Note: India has never been declared a formal U.S. ally; hence, it is not obligated to provide men or material for war.

India will not go to war with China, as this Australian Strategic Policy Institute report states that things go back to the economy. For good or bad, East Asian economies are more intertwined than before with China, including India, much more than Pakistan; if the West expected it, it's their fault for misreading Cold War-era India policy; it's stayed the same then and now.

Trump asked Australia, Japan, etc., to state a position: will they join if a war is declared? They too remained muted on this. 1

1 https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/c...er-lets-get-through-this-rough-patch-quickly/

Thus, there was no test or timeline India had to follow. If the West did invest in India, it was for monetary gains in the form of profits. Here, too, there was no written agreement or formal declaration. Do note that the benefits of trade relations went both ways.

If we were to follow the PDF members' reasoning, then China should have sided with the West against other enemies after having invested trillions over the last 40 years; do you see how absurd this is?

I do not see any harm in India bringing up Turkey. It's showing the West its face in the mirror, which many countries, including ours, have failed to do and continue to fail to do.

Lastly, the China threat became more prominent during Obama's second term, when the "Pivot to Asia" policy was implemented. After the U.S. burned through cash and incurred debt fighting in the desert against men in sandals, it now expects others to carry the burden; it's laughable.

This throws the 30-year theory and billions invested into the water that you have.
 
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lets be real.

both the americans (extreme debt and internal rife and chaos slowly burning it) as well as russia (suffering losses in ukraine trying to fight nato and usa) are both dying empires, and their puppy india has further disappointed them as it could not build up to go for china or even Pakistan.
so it could never take revenge for russia or the americans.
Europe itself is suffering from shitty stagnant economies and is closer to big war as it tries to fight russia in ukraine with trump forcing them to contribute more.
Can the west and its soft white people really have appetite to fight wars?? Few hours of fb, insta outage can't be handled by them, they will fight long and hard wars? LOL

as for the indian side, Ghazwa E Hind will take care of it nicely. its already started and its going to end up with their destruction and balkanization and permanent neutering (obviously they'll never believe it). The future belongs to the east.
West is now tethering on global meltdowns as everything has stagnated, which will only bring wars, chaos and destruction. Just a matter of time
 
RajaBaja said:
I suggest you change your flags. Secondly, I've said it before, a bigger part of Indian population is below average. You qualify in that category.

You should spend a few minutes in reading the post, take some notes, and re-read it. It will make sense to you what the author is trying to say about the escalation ladder.
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How delusional. As perviously stated, you have severe comprehension issues. I suggest you upskill yourself. :LOL:
 
The U.S. keeps “an eye” on what’s happening between India and Pakistan “every single day” as ceasefires can fall apart very quickly,

Mr. Rubio said in an interview to NBC News Meet The Press.
 
PakFactor said:
The Quad has no written agreement or formal declaration stating that its members are obligated to fight China; there is not even a mutual defense clause among its four members. According to the Australians, it's just a forum to promote the "free and open Indo-Pacific" policy.

Thus, I fail to see and have yet to be shown by PDF members where, in writing, India was asked to be committed to or wanted to be committed to standing with the West in a confrontation against China; India's only policy is to exert some semblance of pressure on China; that's it.

* Note: India has never been declared a formal U.S. ally; hence, it is not obligated to provide men or material for war.

India will not go to war with China, as this Australian Strategic Policy Institute report states that things go back to the economy. For good or bad, East Asian economies are more intertwined than before with China, including India, much more than Pakistan; if the West expected it, it's their fault for misreading Cold War-era India policy; it's stayed the same then and now.

Trump asked Australia, Japan, etc., to state a position: will they join if a war is declared? They too remained muted on this. 1

1 https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/c...er-lets-get-through-this-rough-patch-quickly/

Thus, there was no test or timeline India had to follow. If the West did invest in India, it was for monetary gains in the form of profits. Here, too, there was no written agreement or formal declaration. Do note that the benefits of trade relations went both ways.

If we were to follow the PDF members' reasoning, then China should have sided with the West against other enemies after having invested trillions over the last 40 years; do you see how absurd this is?

I do not see any harm in India bringing up Turkey. It's showing the West its face in the mirror, which many countries, including ours, have failed to do and continue to fail to do.

Lastly, the China threat became more prominent during Obama's second term, when the "Pivot to Asia" policy was implemented. After the U.S. burned through cash and incurred debt fighting in the desert against men in sandals, it now expects others to carry the burden; it's laughable.

This throws the 30-year theory and billions invested into the water that you have.
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I don't understand what the key conclusion was for such a lengthy post? You said a lot of random things but nothing was conclusive. I'll try to address a few things that I understood;

This is 2025, in today's world, the world trade and dependencies are inter linked. Unless someone attacked you or there is open hostility like India-Pakitan's case, you can not call out an alliance to be against a nation. Even though it is. QUAD's ONLY purpose is to form a 4 country military alliance. But China hasn't done anything or attacked any of these countries outside of small border issues with India, that they can officially call China their enemy.

If I take your article / post, then I can apply your logic and realize that there is NO OFFICIAL conflict between the US and China either. But both are putting in trillions of dollars towards military buildup to fight one day? In the recent US tariff war, they put 155% tariff on China. Trump openly calls Chinese their enemies but due to rare earth minerals, the US had to back down and reduce the tariffs. Again, things aren't as "black and white" as you want in the world. Things have double meanings. Same is the logic behind QUAD.

And for others like you, who seem to favor India so much, this man is an Indian agent put on the world media defending Indian interests. I don't like his shows, but from watching the following in the first 5 minutes, you'll learn the SAME history I've been putting on here about India joining West in Clinton's time for economic benefits to fight the Chinese. Now they've run away from that commitment. Always know the history before making an opinion about a situation.


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El Sidd said:
Pakistan must ensure her strategic water reserves. The country is being held hostage by India over water and use of terrorism as arms of foreign policy by the Indian state. She must break the shackles of Indian hegemony or forever be held at ransom.
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agree

Now who will that to nawj?

1755500841856.jpeg
 
Rationalist said:
What many need to understand is that the Hindutva thought is dominant in India now, it exists in all classes starting from the bottom to the top to the security and government apparatus.

It's not merely posturing but that visceral hatred against Pakistanis is very real, it rages their blood and a large part is motivated by insecurity. This makes it more than just a mere political dispute even but more personal, and makes them erratic & extremist. They cannot be trusted.

So taking this into account, Pakistan absolutely requires a comfortable ability to turn any target in India into dust if they embark on any such endeavour. Tit for tat and more. Their hate has already led them to attack mosques, next their insecurity might make them target schools, government buildings, public transport.

The Indian Hindu mind is motivated by extremism, insecurity and jealousy. Just seeing a functioning Pakistan pains them.
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RSS evil cannot be defeated by the current rut that is misgoverning Pakistan

Pakistan needs to get its house in order

To beat hinducracy we need eliminate kleptocracy in Pakistan
 
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RajaBaja said:
I don't understand what the key conclusion was for such a lengthy post? You said a lot of random things but nothing was conclusive. I'll try to address a few things that I understood;

This is 2025, in today's world, the world trade and dependencies are inter linked. Unless someone attacked you or there is open hostility like India-Pakitan's case, you can not call out an alliance to be against a nation. Even though it is. QUAD's ONLY purpose is to form a 4 country military alliance. But China hasn't done anything or attacked any of these countries outside of small border issues with India, that they can officially call China their enemy.

If I take your article / post, then I can apply your logic and realize that there is NO OFFICIAL conflict between the US and China either. But both are putting in trillions of dollars towards military buildup to fight one day? In the recent US tariff war, they put 155% tariff on China. Trump openly calls Chinese their enemies but due to rare earth minerals, the US had to back down and reduce the tariffs. Again, things aren't as "black and white" as you want in the world. Things have double meanings. Same is the logic behind QUAD.

And for others like you, who seem to favor India so much, this man is an Indian agent put on the world media defending Indian interests. I don't like his shows, but from watching the following in the first 5 minutes, you'll learn the SAME history I've been putting on here about India joining West in Clinton's time for economic benefits to fight the Chinese. Now they've run away from that commitment. Always know the history before making an opinion about a situation.


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For more detailed information, see our cookies page.
Click to expand...


My point was clear: As I previously mentioned, the Quad that came about during Trump’s term has no written agreement or formal declaration; it was just a forum that remained dormant until the Pivot to Asia during Obama's term, and Trump gave it life, and India has never been officially declared a formal U.S. ally.

Just because the West wanted a coalition in its mindset doesn't mean others would buy into it. The U.S. opened itself to India for its interests during Clinton's term. There was no Quad then, but that doesn't mean India had to follow through, as India has its interests in economic development. Instead, the U.S. gambled on its intent to build up India. Is there any official policy India had to follow through? No.

I hope you know that Quad started as a relief organization. Later, Japan wanted to give it a strategic focus during Bush Jr.'s term. Australia also left the Quad early in 2008. It was given life again in 2017. Thus, its origins were different to begin with.

More importantly, you are only considering the Western point of view, completely ignoring the strategic calculus behind India's foreign policy. Since its inception, India has maintained a multidimensional foreign policy and stayed true to it. It has seen the results from across the border of a tool whose utility is no more.

I believe, as a Pakistani, what's hurting you more is that India refuses to act as a proxy, as opposed to Pakistan's history of acting as a willing proxy.

Suppose I were thinking as a regular Pakistani. In that case, I'm sure what I'm about to say might be the general thought here: The egging of India to fight China in hopes it weakens for Pakistan to get a fighting chance, as if it did any better in the 1960s.
 
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