RajaBaja
Trusted Member
Considering China wants to shutdown the J-10 and therefore Pakistan has to decided soon, it would be better off Pakistan accept it won’t be able to hold more than 3 squadrons of F-16 in its inventory, most likely only 2 squadrons (36 jets) as time goes on, even after a SLEP and MLU for much of the fleet.
Therefore, the PAF has to commit to buying at least another 4 if not 5 more J-10 squadrons, Pakistan might as well pickup much of the production line alongside the JF-17 production line and look to consolidate production capabilities to maintain those two platforms for decades to come.
Pakistan should probably aim for at least 7 squadrons of J-10s and 10 squadrons of the JF-17, alongside the 2 squadrons of J-35A and 2 Squadrons of F-16s. Leaving room for acquiring more stealth fighters down the line, as things develop, as well a retiring off the last of the F-7s and Mirages.
Only with squadron numbers like these, picking up the production facilities should be worth it. Also, Pakistan will have to bite the bullet and look to hire all the Chinese engineers it will need to train Pakistani engineers to learn how to make the two jets completely, the whole ecosystem. At the end of a 10 year process, the PAF could shift to turning these facilities to make the J-35A mid 2030s variant or the KAAN, whatever the PAF at the time determines works best for the nation. It also makes it likely the engineers could design a single engine JF-17 PFX replacement for the oldest JF-17s to ensure squadron numbers.
We can’t expect the current openness to ensure F-16 upgrades will come and even if they do, be supported enough to be depended upon for our defense. F-16s are the bonus fleet (western training, western/Turkish munitions, primarily strike oriented as the Aim-120C5 will probably not be as competitive in a decade or so) now.
Let's separate the issues so the readers can clearly understand each item. You went from F-16's to J-10's to J-35's all in one post.
F-16's: I've mentioned many times, these are relevant jets for next 10 years. The block 52, even 15 more years. MLU'd F-16's need Murad AESA upgrade and Turkish BVR combos so Pakistan can field a PL-15 or better capability. I think we are a partner in one of the BVR program. So we should use it, and get out of the "export versions" with less range. So the MLU'd F-16's will become front line jets again.
F-16 block 52 will be upgraded to Block 70. With that, we'll more than likely get AMRAAM D1. We could get the D-3 when AMRAAM E or AIM-260 are starting to be deployed. But these 18 jets will always stay as tier II because I believe their BVR range will always be less than our Chinese and Turkish options.
Now onto the J-10C. I was of the opinion to get the assembly line until 2019. Our requirements changed, and now changed even more in 2025. We may need 80-100 jets right now. But with India massing redundant tiers of S-400 and in future S-500 on our borders with near 300-400 KM range, covering majority of our airspace with their missiles has pushed us to go heavy on stealth platforms. So the J-10C's will be limited to 80-100. Like the Mirages, we can get the rebuild line for them to maintain them here. No need to invest in TOT and purchasing an assembly line.
This money will go into creating an assembly line for the PFX and buying J-35P's.








