China pushes CPEC 2.0 despite fears

[Pakistani Dragon]

I think that activity for re-baselining is better suited for 2028. Many reasons stop it including now the floods and associated impact to the economy. ...

The more rebasing the better considering Pakistan is digitising day by day noe.

Ideally, it should be done every 5 years to get a much accurate picture but in Pakistan's 78 year history, it has only been rebased 5 times so far, resulting in the economy being understated as well as missing huge chunk of thebeconomy that's not formal.

-​	Financial Year​
01​	1959-1960​
02​	1980-1981​
03​	1999-2000​
04​	2005-2006​
05​	2015-2016​

 

[hydrabadi_arab]

The more rebasing the better considering Pakistan is digitising day by day noe.

Ideally, it should be done every 5 years to get a much accurate picture but in Pakistan's 78 year history, it has only been rebased 5 times so far, resulting in the economy being understated as well as missing huge chunk of thebeconomy that's not formal.

-​	Financial Year​
01​	1959-1960​
02​	1980-1981​
03​	1999-2000​
04​	2005-2006​
05​	2015-2016​

Next GDP rebasing is 2-3 years away.

 

[SoulSpokesman]

@mythbuster @hydrabadi_arab

Blum Pai is right- you need factories now. Not more infra. There is enough infrastructure. You have highways and railways running from Lahore to Karachi. Build industrial estates (or new factories in existing ones) within a few kilometers distance for the arterial highway/railways- connect them through a decent access-controlled road. Wouldn't cost a bomb.

Power is already there, and solar is now a proven success story there.

But manufacturing will have to be done by Pakistani entrepreneurs and enabled by GOP- not by Chinese because they don't seem to be inclined to shift any manufacturing apart from basic screwdrivergiri.

Regards

 

[RajaBaja]

The more rebasing the better considering Pakistan is digitising day by day noe.

Ideally, it should be done every 5 years to get a much accurate picture but in Pakistan's 78 year history, it has only been rebased 5 times so far, resulting in the economy being understated as well as missing huge chunk of thebeconomy that's not formal.

-​	Financial Year​
01​	1959-1960​
02​	1980-1981​
03​	1999-2000​
04​	2005-2006​
05​	2015-2016​

I agree with your first post and this one. But my point was just that we just went through worst floods. So that loss will effect true GDP. It may be better to wait, let CPEC 2 execute, US trade agreement finalize and some activity to start and do it once in 2028. And then do it every two years after that.

 

[RajaBaja]

@mythbuster @hydrabadi_arab

Blum Pai is right- you need factories now. Not more infra. There is enough infrastructure. You have highways and railways running from Lahore to Karachi. Build industrial estates (or new factories in existing ones) within a few kilometers distance for the arterial highway/railways- connect them through a decent access-controlled road. Wouldn't cost a bomb.

Power is already there, and solar is now a proven success story there.

But manufacturing will have to be done by Pakistani entrepreneurs and enabled by GOP- not by Chinese because they don't seem to be inclined to shift any manufacturing apart from basic screwdrivergiri.

Regards

We all know that . If you can stop sending in TTP and BLA terrorists, we can enable 5 business parks (industrial zones) within 12-18 months and trade can start.

But since you are sponsoring terrorism into our country, that's delayed these projects. First, a cleanup operation will take place and then these industrial zones will start working. There will be nearly 50 various industrial zones built across the CPEC route majority in Baluchistan and KPK once areas are cleared.

 

[nahtanbob]

We all know that . If you can stop sending in TTP and BLA terrorists, we can enable 5 business parks (industrial zones) within 12-18 months and trade can start.

But since you are sponsoring terrorism into our country, that's delayed these projects. First, a cleanup operation will take place and then these industrial zones will start working. There will be nearly 50 various industrial zones built across the CPEC route majority in Baluchistan and KPK once areas are cleared.

Pakistan exports $25-30 billion in goods already

 

[Cesur]

I think that activity for re-baselining is better suited for 2028. Many reasons stop it including now the floods and associated impact to the economy.




You don't have roads connecting to business districts, how will you setup any business activity, like manufacturing, research, etc? How will people travel to work, how will supply chain work? How will goods be transported to other places including other countries?

The baseline for any business activity and a healthy economy is infrastructure buildout first. If we hadn't faced Indian and Afghan sponsored terrorism, we'd have at least enabled 5 business districts by now. But due to these terrorist attacks and security of the Chinese nationals, things had to slow down and now a large clearing operation will be completed first to clear some areas. Then economic activity will start. The Phase I infrastructure is ready to start working and industry to start setting up.

and more importantly what people are forgetting is CPEC 1.0 was all about energy projects. Remember load shedding used to be 10-12 hours a day in most cities. Now there is none. There might be some debt associated with it which we are still paying but without energy no economy can function. It's a perquisite to everything.

 

[RajaBaja]

Pakistan exports $25-30 billion in goods already

Our export target is around $ 100 billion in the next 5-7 years. We can't afford to sit still and delay such economic progress.

So CPEC 1 (energy + infrastructure+industrial parks) will go live with trade starting from China to Gawader and CPEC 2 (extension) will start to link 5 nations with Gawader and Karachi.

There is another thread running, showing that China-Kazakistan land port doubled the number of vehicles entering and leaving between both nations. That will happen here too once we clear our area. We'll become a massive trade and tourism hub.

 

[ety]

Dude , name one country in the world who first build infrastructure and then business and industry......start from Europe to North America and then East Asia ......take the example of the biggest proponent of infra development 'CHINA ' ......did she first developed the infrastructure ? Hell no....she started with sweatshops , made money and then went on to develop infrastructure.

Not exactly.

"China developed its infrastructure concurrently with and often to enable its industrialization, beginning with large-scale industrial development during the 1950s under the First Five-Year Plan, followed by massive infrastructure investment from the 1990s onwards to support its rapid manufacturing growth. Both factories and infrastructure were built in tandem to kickstart and sustain China's economic transformation into a global manufacturing powerhouse, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. "

It's just Pakistan in the CPEC 1.0 phase the special industrial zones were not set up and it wasn't able to attract foreign business investments as planed due to various reasons such as security problem. There is a famous saying in China "If you want to get rich, build roads first".

 

[Mighty_Dragon_Strike]

CPEC is going live in 2026. 5 new routes have been added. Iran and Afghanistan to also come onboard in next 2-3 years. The work will now be expedited.

2028 will be a good year to see our economy re-balance our GDP and witness our economy start to climb.

Can I ask what is the reason for this optimism!

FFS, in Pak, beggars are more rich than an ordinary citizen!

in such a culture, how can these projects be successful and how come we havent seen any economical output of CPEC I?!!!

 

[mythbuster]

Not exactly.

"China developed its infrastructure concurrently with and often to enable its industrialization, beginning with large-scale industrial development during the 1950s under the First Five-Year Plan, followed by massive infrastructure investment from the 1990s onwards to support its rapid manufacturing growth. Both factories and infrastructure were built in tandem to kickstart and sustain China's economic transformation into a global manufacturing powerhouse, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. "

It's just Pakistan in the CPEC 1.0 phase the special industrial zones were not set up and it wasn't able to attract foreign business investments as planed due to various reasons such as security problem. There is a famous saying in China "If you want to get rich, build roads first".

Did you borrow money to invest in infrastructure ? Your rapid industrialization phase started in mid 70s ...by 1990 when you started your infrastructure building phase your economy was on sound footing , you were fast becoming an export power house with decent foreign exchange reserves...... you were never burdened by foreign loans equivalent to 70% of your GDP.

 

[Cesur]

We need no fukking Infra projects , we need manufacturing industries that can produce exportable goods ....any dumbass with money can build infrastructure.... developing infra with borrowed money is the worst kind of investment.

Without highways and motorways and railways how do you expect goods to get to ports to export? I won't go into sad state of affairs on the western route through Balochistan which is screaming for infrastructure to get perishable items and billions worth of minerals out for export. If you consider the safest route from Peshawar to Karachi even then there is a lot of work to be done on that side too.

We have a missing link between Sukkur and Hyderabad. If a truck is carrying goods in current state from Peshawar to Karachi it take over 17h. Building missing links would slash that time to perhaps 10-12h Also our railway tracks are over 100 years old and broken and the trains are not enough to meet demand and are slow and run on costly diesel.

You are probably referring to CPEC 1.0. Most of the borrowing was because of energy projects. Like I said people forget there used to be 10-12h of load shedding in most cities back then. When you are faced with such state you have no option but to borrow and whatever the cost may be at least it has resolved those issues. Now because technology has improved and solar power in particular has become cheaper compared to what it was back in 2015 we can survive without pouring more money into energy projects and businesses can work it out on their own

 

[Mighty_Dragon_Strike]

Our export target is around $ 100 billion in the next 5-7 years. We can't afford to sit still and delay such economic progress.

So CPEC 1 (energy + infrastructure+industrial parks) will go live with trade starting from China to Gawader and CPEC 2 (extension) will start to link 5 nations with Gawader and Karachi.

There is another thread running, showing that China-Kazakistan land port doubled the number of vehicles entering and leaving between both nations. That will happen here too once we clear our area. We'll become a massive trade and tourism hub.

CPEC I has not changed the quantum of our trade imbalance!

how CPEC II will be any good, what are the reasons for your statements!

scientific, economical reasons, any?!!!

 

[SoulSpokesman]

@RajaBaja

There were "terrorists" beyond the River Indus even before the RAW or RSS were born- Ghaznavi Pai, Ghori Pai and Abdali Pai to name a few.

If you want to build 50 industrial estates in KPK/ Balochistan be our guest.

Regards

@mythbuster

 

[mythbuster]

Without highways and motorways and railways how do you expect goods to get to ports to export? I won't go into sad state of affairs on the western route through Balochistan which is screaming for infrastructure to get perishable items and billions worth of minerals out for export. If you consider the safest route from Peshawar to Karachi even then there is a lot of work to be done on that side too.

We have a missing link between Sukkur and Hyderabad. If a truck is carrying goods in current state from Peshawar to Karachi it take over 17h. Building missing links would slash that time to perhaps 10-12h Also our railway tracks are over 100 years old and broken and the trains are not enough to meet demand and are slow and run on costly diesel.

You are probably referring to CPEC 1.0. Most of the borrowing was because of energy projects. Like I said people forget there used to be 10-12h of load shedding in most cities back then. When you are faced with such state you have no option but to borrow and whatever the cost may be at least it has resolved those issues. Now because technology has improved and solar power in particular has become cheaper compared to what it was back in 2015 we can survive without pouring more money into energy projects and businesses can work it out on their own

Bro , you got to learn fundamentals of economy before discussing such controversial issues.