I don't think I'm exaggerating by saying that this truly is the US's Suez moment: Saudi Arabia just entered into a NATO-like alliance with Pakistan whereby "any attack on either country is an attack on both.
"The symbolic is extraordinary: Saudi Arabia was in many ways THE poster child of US client states. If they no longer trusts American security guarantees, why should anyone else?
And of course the fact this actually happened and wasn't prevented by the U.S. is immensely telling in and of itself.
This has so many other consequences that it's almost too much to fathom:
- First of all, it means that Saudi Arabia now benefits from Pakistan's nuclear deterrence (and the deal does include nuclear: a senior Saudi Official told Al Jazeera that “this is a comprehensive defensive agreement that encompasses all military means”,
https://aljazeera.com/news/2025/9/17/saudi-arabia-signs-mutual-defence-pact-with-nuclear-armed-pakistan). Which means we now officially have two nuclear-backed blocs in the Middle East: US-Israel vs Pakistan-Saudi. Additionally, Pakistan explicitly rejects a "no first use" doctrine - meaning Saudi Arabia now has a protector willing to use nuclear weapons preemptively.
- Given that 81% of Pakistan's weapon imports come from China (
https://scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3302515/china-supplied-81-pakistans-arms-imports-past-5-years-sipri-says), it also means that Saudi Arabia just indirectly aligned itself with the Chinese military-industrial complex.
- This effectively extends the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to the Persian Gulf, protected by Pakistani nuclear weapons and Chinese military technology - creating a secure energy corridor from the Middle East to China that completely bypasses the Strait of Malacca
- The timing is probably no coincidence, just days after Israel's strike on Qatar, the ultimate proof of the worthlessness of US protection.
- Other Gulf states, and probably in due times other countries "protected" by the U.S., are likely to explore comparable models in the next few months. In fact this might lead to a cascading collapse of the U.S. global alliance system, leading to an entirely new international system where regional nuclear powers become security providers.
- Hard to see how that doesn't permanently kill any chance of Israel-Saudi normalization: Pakistan does not recognize Israel either and with this alliance the Saudis now can resist US pressure as they don't solely depend on them for their defense- It puts India in an extremely tough spot: its archenemy just became the security guarantor for one its primary energy suppliers
- This undoubtedly kills IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor), the Biden administration's flagship grand strategy to counter China's Belt and Road that was supposed to connect India to Europe via Saudi Arabia
- There is a monetary aspect too: this is another nail in the coffin of the petrodollar system (an agreement to price oil exclusively in USD in exchange for US protection). Saudi Arabia is now much more flexible to price oil in whatever currency it wishesAnd this is just what's immediately visible. As a final word: if anyone had any remaining doubt that we were now in a multipolar world, that debate is now settled permanently. American global dominance is no more.
