There is a very high probability of a naval missile attack. While a large carrier task force is easily detected by satellites, smaller missile boats or frigates are much harder to detect..
This is precisely what happened in 1971 when small "Osa" and "Komar " class missile boats attacked Karachi with devastating consequences.
In 2025 Pakistan has much better maritime reconnaissance capabilities than in 1971, so an exact repetition of such a disaster is unlikely. However since 1971 India now has submarines with Brahmos type missiles that can be launched from much greater distances. So far the PN has been able to track Indian submarines coming in unescorted, but it is perfectly possible for a submarine to cruise right underneath a giant oli tanker as a cover with the tanker ( false flagged) sailing closer to the Pakistani coast line like the dozens that sail past every day to and flow from the Gulf. Once in position the submarine can easily rise to periscope depth and fire a crippling missile attack aimed at Pakistani coastal defenses. Once this attack is successful surface ships and aircraft carriers would join in including air strike assets from the Gujarat coastline .
The Pakistan Navy has likely war gamed this scenario but it is not clear what solution there is to thwart such an attack . Of course Pakistan would retaliate by attacking targets all along India's west coast but with Karachi crippled the war would be lost as soon as it started.
@Panzerkiel @arjunk
