Trump threatens 100% tariffs on BRICS nations over US dollar replacement plans

Americans, Not China, Bearing the Weight of Trump’s Tariffs

U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff blitz a core part of his renewed protectionist trade policy was designed to force foreign exporters, especially China, to pay the price of entering the American market.

BySana Khan
October 13, 2025

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U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff blitz a core part of his renewed protectionist trade policy was designed to force foreign exporters, especially China, to pay the price of entering the American market.
But early evidence shows that U.S. companies and consumers are actually footing most of the bill.
Economists say the higher import costs are trickling down through the supply chain, fueling inflationary pressures just as the Federal Reserve struggles to control prices.

Who Is Paying the Price

Harvard economist Alberto Cavallo and his colleagues found that imported goods became 4% more expensive since Trump began imposing tariffs, while U.S.-made products rose 2% in price.
The researchers analyzed over 350,000 goods and concluded that foreign producers have absorbed little of the cost, meaning most of the tariff burden falls on American importers and, ultimately, consumers.
The Yale University Budget Lab echoed this conclusion, noting that export prices from major economies like China, Germany, Mexico, and India have risen clear evidence that foreign firms are passing costs onto the U.S. rather than absorbing them.

Inflationary Ripple Effects

Trump’s tariffs have raised the average import tax from around 2% to 17%, costing roughly $30 billion per month.
That’s putting added pressure on household budgets and feeding into broader price growth.
The Federal Reserve estimates tariffs may be responsible for 30–40 basis points of the current 2.9% core inflation, while the Peterson Institute for International Economics projects inflation could be 1 percentage point higher than it would have been without the tariffs.

Some economists, like Stephen Miran, a Trump ally now at the Fed, argue the inflation effect is minor. But most analysts warn the impact is cumulative and may deepen if companies spread price increases over time.

Corporate Reactions

Businesses are adapting unevenly.
Consumer goods giants like Procter & Gamble, Ray-Ban maker EssilorLuxottica, and Swatch have hiked prices, while European carmakers are absorbing part of the cost to stay competitive.
A Reuters tracker found that 72% of firms across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa have raised prices since the tariff measures began.

Meanwhile, e-commerce platforms like Amazon and Shein have shown sharp price increases for Chinese products ranging from clothing to electronics, reflecting the tariffs’ direct hit on retail pricing.

Global Trade Fallout

The consequences are spilling over into the global economy.
As U.S. consumers cut back, export demand is weakening with EU exports to the U.S. falling 4.4% in July and German exports plunging 20.1% in August.
The World Trade Organization now forecasts global trade growth of just 0.5% next year, citing the delayed impact of U.S. tariffs.
Analysts at ING Bank predict that EU exports to the U.S. could drop 17% over the next two years, shaving 0.3% off the bloc’s GDP growth.

Why It Matters

Trump’s tariff strategy underscores the economic paradox of protectionism while intended to defend domestic industries, it often raises prices for U.S. firms and consumers.
It also complicates the Fed’s balancing act: lowering rates to support jobs risks stoking tariff-induced inflation, while keeping them high could stall economic growth.
The broader picture is one of slow-moving but significant strain on both American households and global supply chains.

The White House insists tariffs will ultimately benefit the U.S., saying the short-term pain is part of a transition toward “fair trade.”

Economists and trade analysts largely disagree, arguing the U.S. is bearing most of the financial burden.

Global exporters warn the uncertainty is depressing investment and trade confidence worldwide.

Consumers face higher prices on everything from household goods to imported cars.

Implications

The implications of Trump’s tariff strategy extend well beyond short-term price hikes. Domestically, the policy is likely to prolong inflationary pressures, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious stance on rate cuts and slowing the pace of economic recovery. Consumer spending, already under strain, could weaken further as households face higher prices on imported goods and essentials.

Over time, the tariffs may also reconfigure global trade patterns, prompting foreign producers to diversify away from the U.S. market to avoid future disruptions. This could reduce America’s leverage in global trade and diminish its role as the world’s largest consumer hub. For allies and trade partners, escalating protectionism could trigger new retaliatory measures, further dampening international growth.

Politically, the growing gap between Trump’s promises and the policy’s economic outcomes could erode public confidence, transforming the tariffs from a symbol of economic strength into a source of frustration for businesses and voters alike.

Analysis

Trump’s tariff war is, at its core, a political tool masquerading as economic policy. While it resonates with protectionist voters, the data clearly show Americans are paying more not China. This approach risks turning into a silent tax on U.S. consumers, undermining the very economic strength it claims to protect. If sustained, the policy could further strain global trade, test the Fed’s inflation control, and erode consumer confidence ahead of the next election cycle.

 
The key difference is that China does not like the status quo. India is a status quo power. There is nothing for India to resolve

yes, China is a foreign trade country, trade needs peace and stability, and China really doesn't like the current situation in South Asia.

But does India really like kind of situation where they fight and consume each other with Pakistan?
 
House cleaning complete.

Reminder that this thread is regarding the "Trump Tariffs". Not the Gaza ceasefire, various conflicts around the world, claims the US starts them, etc. There are other threads for those discussions.

Thread reopened.
 
The latest news just received. Australia has not only agreed to settle iron ore trade in CNY, but has also proactively proposed to settle wheat and wool transactions CNY.

In the field of international trade, the Australian government has essentially betrayed the United States.
First of all, it's not the Australian government; it's BHP, it's a private company.

Second of all, this has really done nothing to the USD, because BHP had a long-running dispute with China on the settlement account, and they are now closing transactions with Yuan instead of the Australian Dollar (it was never USD to begin with,) which did not change anything but the settlement price. Because of the exchange rate for China, say if you have ordered something from Australia in China and have a bill of $50 Australian to settle, and you want to pay with RMB, the settlement is T+3, so by the time you actually pay the bill, the exchange rate might go up (as well as down) and you pay more if the rate goes up, so say if the exchange rate is 5 RMB to 1 AUD on the day you order, and is 5.1 RMB to 1 AUD on the day you pay, you essentially pay 5 RMB more because instead of 250 RMB on the day you order, it's 255 RMB on the day you settle. But if you settle with 250 RMB, then you pay the same amount regardless of when you settle the account; it can be T+1000, you would still be paying 250 RMB.

Everything else is unchanged because Australia doesn't carry RMB and China doesn't carry the Australian Dollar. Which means the Federal Bank of Australia would have to convert that 50 AUD into USD first, then have it convert into RMB from USD. The only way Australia can "Betray" the United States, as you put it, is to set the Forex currencies from USD to RMB.
 
First of all, it's not the Australian government; it's BHP, it's a private company.

Second of all, this has really done nothing to the USD, because BHP had a long-running dispute with China on the settlement account, and they are now closing transactions with Yuan instead of the Australian Dollar (it was never USD to begin with,) which did not change anything but the settlement price. Because of the exchange rate for China, say if you have ordered something from Australia in China and have a bill of $50 Australian to settle, and you want to pay with RMB, the settlement is T+3, so by the time you actually pay the bill, the exchange rate might go up (as well as down) and you pay more if the rate goes up, so say if the exchange rate is 5 RMB to 1 AUD on the day you order, and is 5.1 RMB to 1 AUD on the day you pay, you essentially pay 5 RMB more because instead of 250 RMB on the day you order, it's 255 RMB on the day you settle. But if you settle with 250 RMB, then you pay the same amount regardless of when you settle the account; it can be T+1000, you would still be paying 250 RMB.

Everything else is unchanged because Australia doesn't carry RMB and China doesn't carry the Australian Dollar. Which means the Federal Bank of Australia would have to convert that 50 AUD into USD first, then have it convert into RMB from USD. The only way Australia can "Betray" the United States, as you put it, is to set the Forex currencies from USD to RMB.
Although you have explained in detail, it is undeniable that China purchases Australian ore with RMB. As for what Australia does with RMB, this is the monetary policy of the United States and Australia. For China, your affairs are arranged by yourself. Maybe Australia can buy Chinese electric cars with RMB
 
Although you have explained in detail, it is undeniable that China purchases Australian ore with RMB. As for what Australia does with RMB, this is the monetary policy of the United States and Australia. For China, your affairs are arranged by yourself. Maybe Australia can buy Chinese electric cars with RMB
Again, there are no changes, unless we started printing RMB and you start printing the Australian Dollar.

Even if you pay RMB, the Fed in Australia will need to turn it into Australian dollars. Again, the Fed Settlement Currency is USD, which means the Fed will exchange the RMB received by BHP into USD and convert it through Forex.

It's the same if you pay Australian dollars at your end, just that instead it being the Australian Federal Bank that converts the RMB to USD, it's the Chinese Central Bank that converts the RMB into USD (Or whatever denomination of your settling currency) and then converts it into AUD to pay BHP. Besides, I am pretty sure due to the RMB restriction policy, even if your buyer settles the account with BHP with RMB, they would still pay with either USD or AUD using the denomination for RMB, because otherwise you would have to allow more than the basket currency amount of RMB to change hand internationally.

And nobody buys anything with a currency outside their own; it's stupid to do so with the aforementioned reason. So thanks, but no thanks.
 
Again, there are no changes, unless we started printing RMB and you start printing the Australian Dollar.

Even if you pay RMB, the Fed in Australia will need to turn it into Australian dollars. Again, the Fed Settlement Currency is USD, which means the Fed will exchange the RMB received by BHP into USD and convert it through Forex.

It's the same if you pay Australian dollars at your end, just that instead it being the Australian Federal Bank that converts the RMB to USD, it's the Chinese Central Bank that converts the RMB into USD (Or whatever denomination of your settling currency) and then converts it into AUD to pay BHP. Besides, I am pretty sure due to the RMB restriction policy, even if your buyer settles the account with BHP with RMB, they would still pay with either USD or AUD using the denomination for RMB, because otherwise you would have to allow more than the basket currency amount of RMB to change hand internationally.

And nobody buys anything with a currency outside their own; it's stupid to do so with the aforementioned reason. So thanks, but no thanks.
Lol.No one buys anything with the currency of other countries, so the fake news of India buying Russian oil with RMB? Could you please separate the internal currency from the external currency? Again, the renminbi is also the international currency reserve of other central banks.
As for how Australia can exchange or directly use RMB, even I know that it is their internal affairs without interference. Why would you bring it up to the Federal Reserve?
Perhaps I misunderstood, Australia has its own Federal Reserve, and Australia uses the US dollar internally.
What I want to say is that this is just the beginning, and there will be more and more RMB payment projects in China's huge purchase orders.
 
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First of all, it's not the Australian government; it's BHP, it's a private company.

Second of all, this has really done nothing to the USD, because BHP had a long-running dispute with China on the settlement account, and they are now closing transactions with Yuan instead of the Australian Dollar (it was never USD to begin with,) which did not change anything but the settlement price. Because of the exchange rate for China, say if you have ordered something from Australia in China and have a bill of $50 Australian to settle, and you want to pay with RMB, the settlement is T+3, so by the time you actually pay the bill, the exchange rate might go up (as well as down) and you pay more if the rate goes up, so say if the exchange rate is 5 RMB to 1 AUD on the day you order, and is 5.1 RMB to 1 AUD on the day you pay, you essentially pay 5 RMB more because instead of 250 RMB on the day you order, it's 255 RMB on the day you settle. But if you settle with 250 RMB, then you pay the same amount regardless of when you settle the account; it can be T+1000, you would still be paying 250 RMB.

Everything else is unchanged because Australia doesn't carry RMB and China doesn't carry the Australian Dollar. Which means the Federal Bank of Australia would have to convert that 50 AUD into USD first, then have it convert into RMB from USD. The only way Australia can "Betray" the United States, as you put it, is to set the Forex currencies from USD to RMB.

Stop the nonsense.

Australia is not going to exchange the earned CNY into USD but use the CNY to settle the goods purchased from China. It is to think that Australian government will submit to the US by paying seigniorage tax.

It is obvious why Australia offers to use CNY to settle wool and wheat. Because theNY earned from selling iron ore is not enough to settle all the imported Chinese goods, they need more CNY to avoid the USD seigniorage tax.
 
Stop the nonsense.

Australia is not going to exchange the earned CNY into USD but use the CNY to settle the goods purchased from China. It is to think that Australian government will submit to the US by paying seigniorage tax.

It is obvious why Australia offers to use CNY to settle wool and wheat. Because theNY earned from selling iron ore is not enough to settle all the imported Chinese goods, they need more CNY to avoid the USD seigniorage tax.
Yeah, sure, and we will keep and spend those RMB we got from you buying coal or iron ore from BHP right? Last time I went to the bank and checked, which is today, RMB is NOT a legal tender of currency in Australia. Which means RMB means absolutely nothing to the Australian Market

LOL, earning from selling ore is not enough to settle all the imported Chinese goods? Buddy, we had a trade surplus with you, which means we sell to China more than we buy from China, which means we can't even use the RMB to buy stuff from you, because we would still have RMB left. So what do you suggest we do with leftover RMB??


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Dude, stick to stuff that you know. I don't know what it is, maybe Engineering or stuff like that, but you definitely know nothing in currency and trade..........
 
Lol.No one buys anything with the currency of other countries, so the fake news of India buying Russian oil with RMB? Could you please separate the internal currency from the external currency? Again, the renminbi is also the international currency reserve of other central banks.
As for how Australia can exchange or directly use RMB, even I know that it is their internal affairs without interference. Why would you bring it up to the Federal Reserve?
Perhaps I misunderstood, Australia has its own Federal Reserve, and Australia uses the US dollar internally.
What I want to say is that this is just the beginning, and there will be more and more RMB payment projects in China's huge purchase orders.

Lol, using Russia as an example? Did you even know why Russia doesn't even take rubles to settle its own accounts? That's because the Russian currency is broken; that's why even the Russians selling them oil don't want the Ruble as settlement.

And there are no "internal" currency and "external" currency, it's like saying "Digital Currency" like bitcoin is separate from currency, can you use bitcoin and buy everything you need? there is only one currency in each country, that's their legal tender, we don't use RMB in Australia, and you don't use Australian Dollars in China, which mean you getting Australia Dollar is pointless because you don't spend it directly in China, you need to somehow convert that into RMB, and there are only one way to do it. Guess how?

There is a thing called "external" and "internal" circulation. Internal Circulation means things that you use your money for locally, external circulation means your currency resides outside your own money supply, eg, sitting in some forex account.

And we don't use USD internally, you come here with a bunch of USD and spend it on our store, and people WILL tell you to fark off, USD was used in forex (foreign exchange) which is basically keeping the central banking system working, because we can't print money every time we need it

And finally, more settlement in RMB in China is gonna do absolutely nothing, as this was how it was intended to do, unless your country is like Russia or Venezuela that currency means nothing. That is, before we go into the topic of Currency Restriction Policy in China, if you want to settle your purchase with RMB, you will need to provide more external circulation to another country, which means you are "floating" the currency, and you can't float the currency if you have currency restriction
 
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Lol, using Russia as an example? Did you even know why Russia doesn't even take rubles to settle its own accounts? That's because the Russian currency is broken; that's why even the Russians selling them oil don't want the Ruble as settlement.

And there are no "internal" currency and "external" currency, it's like saying "Digital Currency" like bitcoin is separate from currency, can you use bitcoin and buy everything you need? there is only one currency in each country, that's their legal tender, we don't use RMB in Australia, and you don't use Australian Dollars in China, which mean you getting Australia Dollar is pointless because you don't spend it directly in China, you need to somehow convert that into RMB, and there are only one way to do it. Guess how?

There is a thing called "external" and "internal" circulation. Internal Circulation means things that you use your money for locally, external circulation means your currency resides outside your own money supply, eg, sitting in some forex account.

And we don't use USD internally, you come here with a bunch of USD and spend it on our store, and people WILL tell you to fark off, USD was used in forex (foreign exchange) which is basically keeping the central banking system working, because we can't print money every time we need it

And finally, more settlement in RMB in China is gonna do absolutely nothing, as this was how it was intended to do, unless your country is like Russia or Venezuela that currency means nothing. That is, before we go into the topic of Currency Restriction Policy in China, if you want to settle your purchase with RMB, you will need to provide more external circulation to another country, which means you are "floating" the currency, and you can't float the currency if you have currency restriction
First of all, thank you for sharing Australia's monetary policy. While I understand what you mean, the discussion on my topic has gone off the road. Maybe my expression is not specific enough. First of all, I just want to say two things: 1 There is no doubt that the world uses the US dollar as an international currency. So I'm not going to continue discussing this. 2 As a latecomer, China is also one of the top markets in the world, which means there is a huge purchasing list every year. Now, we use RMB for global purchases, and most countries have to accept it, just like Australia did this time. Moreover, we can also see that in the future, there will be more and more RMB procurement list news in the media, which means that most countries need to accept it. The internationalization of the RMB is accelerating. As for the tradable floating space you mentioned, I would like to say that both Singapore and Hong Kong have the RMB exchange rate trading market. Of course, that's not enough. You're right, we need more daily trading volume and convertibility. I think it will be implemented in Hong Kong in the future. It has to be said that the internationalization of the RMB has entered an accelerated mode. It's irreversible. I attend the Canton Fair every year to exchange with foreign counterparts. Relying on China, the world's largest consumer market and manufacturing plant, and abandoning the US dollar as an intermediary, the risk of direct trading losses in the RMB exchange rate is relatively small.
Most of the current trading volume is the amount of currency exchange between some countries and China, which is simply not enough for China's huge purchasing list, so the RMB exchange process needs to be accelerated.

For example, the currency exchange between Argentina and China is only a little over 200 billion yuan, which is only a small part of the purchase amount for China, but it is sufficient for Argentina.Argentina also cannot provide a larger purchase volume, and basically, the Chinese table has Argentine beef and crops.So Brazil, he took the opportunity to provide us with huge soybeans.
 
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First of all, thank you for sharing Australia's monetary policy. While I understand what you mean, the discussion on my topic has gone off the road. Maybe my expression is not specific enough. First of all, I just want to say two things: 1 There is no doubt that the world uses the US dollar as an international currency. So I'm not going to continue discussing this. 2 As a latecomer, China is also one of the top markets in the world, which means there is a huge purchasing list every year. Now, we use RMB for global purchases, and most countries have to accept it, just like Australia did this time. Moreover, we can also see that in the future, there will be more and more RMB procurement list news in the media, which means that most countries need to accept it. The internationalization of the RMB is accelerating. As for the tradable floating space you mentioned, I would like to say that both Singapore and Hong Kong have the RMB exchange rate trading market. Of course, that's not enough. You're right, we need more daily trading volume and convertibility. I think it will be implemented in Hong Kong in the future. It has to be said that the internationalization of the RMB has entered an accelerated mode. It's irreversible. I attend the Canton Fair every year to exchange with foreign counterparts. Relying on China, the world's largest consumer market and manufacturing plant, and abandoning the US dollar as an intermediary, the risk of direct trading losses in the RMB exchange rate is relatively small.
Most of the current trading volume is the amount of currency exchange between some countries and China, which is simply not enough for China's huge purchasing list, so the RMB exchange process needs to be accelerated.

For example, the currency exchange between Argentina and China is only a little over 200 billion yuan, which is only a small part of the purchase amount for China, but it is sufficient for Argentina.Argentina also cannot provide a larger purchase volume, and basically, the Chinese table has Argentine beef and crops.So Brazil, he took the opportunity to provide us with huge soybeans.
I think you misunderstood 2 things. Monetary policy and Global Foreign Exchange Policy

First of all, it didn't matter what you settle in, you can be China and settle in RMB, AUD, USD, GBP or whatever, YOU ALWAYS PAID IN RMB, that's the same in Australia and the rest of the world, even if we buy stuff from you and settle with RMB and not AUD, we still pays in AUD, that's dictated by monetary policy, becuase you don't print AUD, USD or whatever currency in China, the same thing we don't print USD or RMB in Australia.

Monetary Policy is what you use and, more importantly, HOW you use your own money (RMB in China, AUD in Australia, USD in the United States). Usually, you have a money chart or money base called M0, M1, M2, M3. This is how you use your own currency, as explained before, you either use it domestically, ie, pay for grocieries, buy a car, or get a loan and etc, that's what we called "Internal circulation" Whatever you do, that money stay locally, (eg, that China have roughly 2 trillion dollar worth of RMB being M0+M1, that mean no matter what you do, that 2 trillion RMB stays in China)

Then you have your external circulation of RMB in China, which means RMB that was not held in the Central Bank in China, be it note form or just a line of Credit, those RMB are being held overseas, either in Foreign Central bank or held by Private Company, that is made up from Forex, or more whenever you hear USD being 58% of world currency, that's what it meant, there is a Basket Currency that the world held in USD, Euro, GBP, AUD, YEN and RMB, while this number can flutrated, but no mare than the percentage assigned to Special Drawing Right, which is where the % come from, China now is around 4 to 5 %, Euro is about 22%, Yen about 4%, GBP about 2%, AUD around 1.5% That was dictated by both demand and Forex Policy.

You can't change both policy just by settling with RMB, because the only way you can do it is by printing more currency, which mean it's going to inflat your value, which mean for forex, you usually use the dominate currency (which is USD) to exchange from and into your own currency, otherwise you would have to cough up that amount.

In your example, Argentina buy 200 billion RMB means you converted 200 billion RMB from M0/M1 to Forex, meaning your central bank hold 200 billion worth of RMB in Peso instead of RMB, and in exchange you gave Argentina 200 billion RMB, that didn't change the value of RMB because you basically plugging it out from one source (either M0 or M1) into another, it did not increase or decrease your money base.
 
I think you misunderstood 2 things. Monetary policy and Global Foreign Exchange Policy

First of all, it didn't matter what you settle in, you can be China and settle in RMB, AUD, USD, GBP or whatever, YOU ALWAYS PAID IN RMB, that's the same in Australia and the rest of the world, even if we buy stuff from you and settle with RMB and not AUD, we still pays in AUD, that's dictated by monetary policy, becuase you don't print AUD, USD or whatever currency in China, the same thing we don't print USD or RMB in Australia.

Monetary Policy is what you use and, more importantly, HOW you use your own money (RMB in China, AUD in Australia, USD in the United States). Usually, you have a money chart or money base called M0, M1, M2, M3. This is how you use your own currency, as explained before, you either use it domestically, ie, pay for grocieries, buy a car, or get a loan and etc, that's what we called "Internal circulation" Whatever you do, that money stay locally, (eg, that China have roughly 2 trillion dollar worth of RMB being M0+M1, that mean no matter what you do, that 2 trillion RMB stays in China)

Then you have your external circulation of RMB in China, which means RMB that was not held in the Central Bank in China, be it note form or just a line of Credit, those RMB are being held overseas, either in Foreign Central bank or held by Private Company, that is made up from Forex, or more whenever you hear USD being 58% of world currency, that's what it meant, there is a Basket Currency that the world held in USD, Euro, GBP, AUD, YEN and RMB, while this number can flutrated, but no mare than the percentage assigned to Special Drawing Right, which is where the % come from, China now is around 4 to 5 %, Euro is about 22%, Yen about 4%, GBP about 2%, AUD around 1.5% That was dictated by both demand and Forex Policy.

You can't change both policy just by settling with RMB, because the only way you can do it is by printing more currency, which mean it's going to inflat your value, which mean for forex, you usually use the dominate currency (which is USD) to exchange from and into your own currency, otherwise you would have to cough up that amount.

In your example, Argentina buy 200 billion RMB means you converted 200 billion RMB from M0/M1 to Forex, meaning your central bank hold 200 billion worth of RMB in Peso instead of RMB, and in exchange you gave Argentina 200 billion RMB, that didn't change the value of RMB because you basically plugging it out from one source (either M0 or M1) into another, it did not increase or decrease your money base.
This may be the next step in the plan. In fact, the proportion of Southeast Asian countries using RMB to purchase from China is increasing, and they are not within the scope of currency swaps. The RMB is already held in various Southeast Asian countries, which will dilute the share that originally belongs to the US dollar. The currency share you mentioned is only a statistical analysis of the Swift channel. In fact, China has its own settlement system, and a large share of it is not included in Swift's statistics. Of course we're just getting started, and it's going to take more time to run.
 
Stop the nonsense.

Australia is not going to exchange the earned CNY into USD but use the CNY to settle the goods purchased from China. It is to think that Australian government will submit to the US by paying seigniorage tax.

It is obvious why Australia offers to use CNY to settle wool and wheat. Because theNY earned from selling iron ore is not enough to settle all the imported Chinese goods, they need more CNY to avoid the USD seigniorage tax.
he does not understand what BHP is doing. BHP is keeping the RMB in some sort of offshore account, most likely in HK. Whether they convert it into AUD or Dirhams, thats their business. Most major corporations have some sort of hedging accounts in Singapore, HK, and other major financial centers. The significance is for the first time, they are accepting RMB directly.
 

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