Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Immortals]

 

[Immortals]

 

[Immortals]

 

[Immortals]

 

[PK781]

What do you think goes on in the ships that doesnt happen on the streets?

i'm sure the 2 day break won't be even close to a relief, those men onboard will be going crazy and will be absent once they reach american soil/home. Won't be surprised if many will quit the military.
Plus the filth, and diseases many will be carrying due to the unhygienic conditions onboard and the sexual escapades of the sailors.
Feel sorry for the victims of the bullies onboard (sexual assaults), this will get exposed

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

I'm not convinced the truth is being told whichever side is pushing it. In the US Perspective thread, outlandish claims are being made based on poor resolution overhead photos of ships doing STS transfers and the relative sizes of the ships in the exchanges. What is not clear is just how much draft they are pulling. That would give a much better idea as to how much oil they are carrying.

There is so much misinformation at the moment that I tend to ignore it. Especially if it is coming from Twitter posts. The spamming in this thread is on par with some of the spam in the US thread. .

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

What do you think goes on in the ships that doesnt happen on the streets?

LOL.....been quite a number of verifiable reports of increased pregnancy among the female enlistees aboard ship. That was going to be a given when the military opened up slots on warships to female sailors.

 

[UberShock]

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

Is there better video than this?



Notice the credits in the bottom of the screen capture. Even states modified data.

Going to chalk this up to skeptical.

 

[FIsa]

I'm not convinced the truth is being told whichever side is pushing it. In the US Perspective thread, outlandish claims are being made based on poor resolution overhead photos of ships doing STS transfers and the relative sizes of the ships in the exchanges. What is not clear is just how much draft they are pulling. That would give a much better idea as to how much oil they are carrying.

There is so much misinformation at the moment that I tend to ignore it. Especially if it is coming from Twitter posts. The spamming in this thread is on par with some of the spam in the US thread. .

I agree

Best measure is oil price . What do you pay for a barrel of oil in cold hard cash.

Which is basically saying that the situation is not normal but also not a complete stop to the flows either.

 

[Oldenwisdom...قول بزرگ]

US strikes on Iran are not that significant tbh. It was during the joint war with Israel but these are small retailation packages. Which makes me wonder why Iran is so afraid of using its tools at hand.

US Navy has prepared for scenarios with much larger adversaries like China and Russia. Iran cannot chop a US destroyer in half or sink an aircraft carrier. It can maybe a score a hit on a ship which makes US Navy mission in SOH more dangerous and suspectible to disruption.

It will take a lot to score a hit, lots of missiles and getting lucky with accuracy because those Iranian missiles are not perfectly accurate.

US will not engage in a pyschotic response if one missile hits a Navy ship. But it will attack targets in Tehran, elsewhere, more economic targets in particular.

The problem I see with Iranian leadership is they're back to being reactive. They're gonna wait for population to riot in streets over economic condition before greenlighting more bold moves by IRGC.

It is how who perceive threshold, that will ultimately call the shots. Up the escalation ladder...
Keeping the door open for US to escalate before Iran does...

The possibility to saturate the air and sea around a whole CSG seems very real and possible... because of the types of warheads, cruise missiles and drones available to Iran... the K4 warhead can saturate air strips and within a margin, aircraft carriers as well.
That is already beyond specific anti ship weapons.
However, because miliekowsky is against the wall and escalating in Lebanon... it is only a matter of time that he'll feel like opening the front against Iran itself... perhaps much closer to election day. It seems a path to that is being carved by orange clown... why his realtors showed up in Moscow and why he slapped South Korea publicly... both to use them as a bait but also to open a window with North Korea... who by the way Orange wanted to open a front in his previous term.

It seems compromises are on offing because Iran is not being an easy meal. The Russians always seem too willing to be swayed... as demonstrated in Syria where zion would inform Russia of their attacks on Iranian targets. For the economic war to be effective... US needs both Russia and China on board... and where they'll feign concessions on things that don't belong to them, regardless.

In essence, reimagining the front!

 

[Immortals]

I'm not convinced the truth is being told whichever side is pushing it. In the US Perspective thread, outlandish claims are being made based on poor resolution overhead photos of ships doing STS transfers and the relative sizes of the ships in the exchanges. What is not clear is just how much draft they are pulling. That would give a much better idea as to how much oil they are carrying.

There is so much misinformation at the moment that I tend to ignore it. Especially if it is coming from Twitter posts. The spamming in this thread is on par with some of the spam in the US thread. .

You either believe:

American side: Short fall is 2-3MBPD (15-18MBPD getting thru)
Iranian side: Shortfall is 12-13MBPD (6-7MBPD getting thru)
OSINT side: Shortfall is 7-8MBPD (10-12MBPD getting thru)

*including re-routing thru Yanbu on Red Sea

Again none of this covers LNG, petroleum products, fertilizer, and helium.

Right now it’s not yet an oil problem - it’s a refined products problem (diesel). That could change if refineries continue to forego maintenance (utilization at record 98%) and if China resumes buying oil on open market at pre-war amounts.

The Chinese dropping demand by 5MBPD has gone mostly not talked about.

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

I agree

Best measure is oil price . What do you pay for a barrel of oil in cold hard cash.

Which is basically saying that the situation is not normal but also not a complete stop to the flows either.

The situation is definitely not normal. Unlike some who say "it's only another $20 at the pump", I tend to look at the downstream effects. Have posted several times already that gas and #2 diesel prices are climbing again. In fact, I saw one location yesterday advertising #2 diesel for $6.89/gallon!

That cost all gets passed on to the consumer whether they like it or not. Feel free to hang your hat on the quote of the day for Brent or WTI while ignoring the rest of the world around you.

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

You either believe:

American side: Short fall is 2-3MBPD (15-18MBPD getting thru)
Iranian side: Shortfall is 12-13MBPD (6-7MBPD getting thru)
OSINT side: Shortfall is 7-8MBPD (10-12MBPD getting thru)

*including re-routing thru Yanbu on Red Sea

Again none of this covers LNG, petroleum products, fertilizer, and helium.

Right now it’s not yet an oil problem - it’s a refined products problem (diesel). That could change if refineries continue to forego maintenance (utilization at record 98%) and if China resumes buying oil on open market at pre-war amounts.

The Chinese dropping demand by 5MBPD has gone mostly not talked about.

If you've been following some of mine as well as @Davey Crockett 's posts in the US Perspectives thread, we have been talking about that. In fact, in that thread, someone was crowing that the price of fertilizer was coming down. At this point, what difference does it make? It's too late; the planting season was months ago. The question now is do the farmers have the available capital to procure fertilizer now ahead of next spring's planting season? I doubt it.

Davey and I have both noted that US refineries are particularly vulnerable due to the delayed maintenance. And, for those familiar with US weather patterns know that hurricane season is upon us as well. Where are most of the refineries located?

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

For those who are interested, the chart below is an accurate representation of the products from a barrel of oil. Guess which product is last on the cracking process?



FWIW, diesel fuel has been required to be ultra low sulfur for many years now in the US. That adds additional costs to the refining process.