Oh! My!
Even
@Persian Gulf is feeling positive.
Then Trump and US must really be in a pickle.
As I (and small number of others) have been saying, the outcome of this war was decided in the first week.
The only thing to be decided is how much blood and treasure will be shed. That’s entirely upto Trump’s thirst for blood.
What I mean by outcome:
1. No colour revolution like the ones we saw in south Asian Muslim countries recently. Because their military leaders are CIA agents.
2. US retreat from Iran’s neighbourhood
3. Iranian sovereign control over SoH
4. Iran’s nuclear strategy will be decided by itself
5. Iran forges a path away from the petro dollar.
Every Iranian fan supporter wherther inside or outside Irán should be moderately optimistic.
Even if Irán didn´t play masterfully their estrategy during the war, the war is NOT OVER. And people frequently forget that war dynamics goes and come with successes and defeats, mistakes and achievements.
Some members (we know all who they are) are extremely frustrated with this strategy, but it is working.
1.- Iranian nuclear program remains active and completely out of western control (IMO it is the main success).
2.- Missile program is expanding in two dimensions (in numbers and in bases). This is another inquestionable success.
3.- Iran is managing and controlling the lethal effects of oil restrictions—not only in the Strait of Hormuz but also in the Bab el-Mandeb—with surprising effectiveness, and there are suspicions that it is benefiting from the problems Zelensky has created for Russia. To the point that Irán is without any doubt making money with oil and tolls. That is the third success.
But we must be realistic; this strategy has given rise to a number of concerning effects that require attention, lest they undermine those tactical victories.
1º.- Iranian inflation it is an unavoidable effect from the total economic war and siege over iranian population.
2º.- Baluchestan. Irán seems to be managing much better kurdish infiltration and problems, but not the same success with Baluchestan.
3º.- Arab/turkish coalition is growing because of success of this strategy of Irán in oil restrictions and saudi frustration in the war. This coalition could eventually stop the houthi successes if not disabled, and this neutralization should be done diplomatically and economically (the more success of houthies, the more reluctance of Turkey and Egypt to be involved in this war), because a kinetic direct strategy would push all region in a total war.
This war recall me the Africa campaign. Churchill was mad at Montgomery because he was reluctant to a direct confrontation to Rommel, and he just attacked when he had a tactical advantage, logistically, geografically and in numbers.
