Pakistan’s Debt-to-GDP ratio has fallen to a 6-year low in FY24 at 70%

[Forsvaret]

They are yet again fudging and playing around with figures.

Of course. It’s Ishaq Dar again. What else did you expect?

 

[313Ghazi]

No - they’re not simple:

Some of the things are very simple.

Here is just 1 example.

Trash - just take your trash home with you, don't throw it on the street. If everyone did that, the streets would not have trash on them. It requires 0 investment or government effort.

Driving in Pakistan is a nightmare. Pakistani's drive like wild animals on the savannah. If they just followed the rules of the road like in every other civilised country - travelling would be safer and much less stressful.

Remittances. Our biggest export is humans. We send them out to every corner of the world completely unskilled. If there were vocational academies in Pakistan that trained people in vocations to an internationally recognised standard - our human capital could earn double or triple what they do. That money would be sent back.

I can give you some strictly economic ideas too if you like.

 

[Samlee]

Good progress despite inherting near default Pakistan from Niazi regime.

Listening to Patwaris Talking About Economics Is Never Ending Entertainment

Meanwhile Outside The World of State Mandated Figure Fudging

Over 100 factories shut down in Faisalabad amid rising costs

FAISALABAD: Rising energy tariffs and markup rates have significantly increased production costs, leading to the closure of over a hundred small and large factories, including Sitara Textile Mills,...

www.thenews.com.pk

 

[hydrabadi_arab]

The remarkable thing here is that fixing this issue doesn't have to be difficult, not at all. It literally just takes leaders who are focused on national interests and some basic common sense.

For example, we have China that imports oil and gas, and it wants to build an alternative route to the Straits of Malacca (in case the US puts pressure there).

So, all we had to do with CPEC was orient as an energy corridor - i.e., a port to receive crude, refineries to make product, rail lines and roads to transport product. Just build all that on loans from China, and then require China to pay a toll fee every year (given the debt accrued to build that infrastructure, they'd be toll-free for some years, and then eventually, Pakistan will get income).

Non of this is was viable and China knew it. Thats why they mostly invested in IPPs with guaranteed returns.

Pakistan can still course correct with reforms, then not only China but many others will come. But it will take some years.

 

[Quwa]

Some of the things are very simple.

Here is just 1 example.

Trash - just take your trash home with you, don't throw it on the street. If everyone did that, the streets would not have trash on them. It requires 0 investment or government effort.

Driving in Pakistan is a nightmare. Pakistani's drive like wild animals on the savannah. If they just followed the rules of the road like in every other civilised country - travelling would be safer and much less stressful.

Remittances. Our biggest export is humans. We send them out to every corner of the world completely unskilled. If there were vocational academies in Pakistan that trained people in vocations to an internationally recognised standard - our human capital could earn double or triple what they do. That money would be sent back.

I can give you some strictly economic ideas too if you like.

Heck, if you train and up-skill the population, it might be easier to get FDI in manufacturing and other higher value industries. You may not even need to send that many people abroad. God forbid, you might even give Pakistani companies a better human resource pool such that they can improve their products and be more competitive in the global market.

 

[hydrabadi_arab]

Listening to Patwaris Talking About Economics Is Never Ending Entertainment

Meanwhile Outside The World of State Mandated Figure Fudging

Over 100 factories shut down in Faisalabad amid rising costs

FAISALABAD: Rising energy tariffs and markup rates have significantly increased production costs, leading to the closure of over a hundred small and large factories, including Sitara Textile Mills,...

www.thenews.com.pk

Oh yeah Niazi leaving Pakistan with record high CAD was brilliant economic policy. But but he left petrol at Rs150. Thats why PTI-supporter+s are economically dumb.

Growth rate now is 2-3% but guess what? Its not on back of foreign loans like in Dar/Niazi era. Now Pakistan will be forced to bring some reforms if it wants to see consistent 6% growth rates.

 

[Samlee]

Oh yeah Niazi leaving Pakistan with record high CAD was brilliant economic policy. But but he left petrol at Rs150. Thats why PTI-supporter+s are economically dumb.

Growth rate now is 2-3% but guess what? Its not on back of foreign loans like in Dar/Niazi era. Now Pakistan will be forced to bring some reforms if it wants to see consistent 6% growth rates.

Oh CAD!! Patwari Pretending He Knows Economics ROFL

$20 Billion CAD Yep Niazi Inherited A Record High CAD In 2018 Partly Because Exports Dropped From $25 to $22 Billion From and Record Imports in spite of Low Oil Prices

Niazi's Economic Growth Was The Result Of the Construction Package and Textile Export Orders Coming To Pakistan Not Foreign Loans. The Foreign Loans Taken Were To Return The Ones Taken By Dar To Keep the Dollar At Rs 100. Not To Mention Debt Taken In The Name Of CPEC

Govt injected $7b to keep rupee overvalued in recent years | The Express Tribune

EAC member says policy to prevent the currency’s fall caused more damage

tribune.com.pk

Oh And the so-called record-high High CAD Of Niazi Was The Result of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine and the Resulting Commodity Supercycle


But Don't Tax Your Little Patwari Mind With Things Like CAD and Commodity Supercycle Keep Enjoying Your Khota Biryani

 

[Forsvaret]

Non of this is was viable and China knew it. Thats why they mostly invested in IPPs with guaranteed returns.

Guaranteed returns in USD was their insurance policy in case Pakistan went burst. Now - ordinary electricity consumers pay its ultimate price. Chinese knew Pakistanis were signing a bad deal all along.

 

[Forsvaret]

Oh yeah Niazi leaving Pakistan with record high CAD was brilliant economic policy.

Did you check the CAD your favorite Nawaz regime left in 2018?

 

[Forsvaret]

Growth rate now is 2-3% but guess what? Its not on back of foreign loans like in Dar/Niazi era.

Eh? Dar is still in the current era.

 

[hydrabadi_arab]

Guaranteed returns in USD was their insurance policy in case Pakistan went burst. Now - ordinary electricity consumers pay its ultimate price. Chinese knew Pakistanis were signing a bad deal all along.

No doubt Nawaz/Dar combo was disastrous, just like Niazi last year in office when he decided to bankrupt Pakistan before going out.

Now only thing left to see is if current govt have balls to do reforms.

Military is hit hard as well, DHA plots prices have crashed. Real estate in general have crashed. Era of plot files as safe investment is now over. Only way DHA plots value will recover is if economy is doing well.

 

[Forsvaret]

Now only thing left to see is if current govt have balls to do reforms.

 

[PakFactor]

Transport where? Over the Himalayas to the China? Was this project even tested for economic feasibility - before PMLN sold it to us as “gift” from China:

CPEC a gift from China to Pakistan: PM Nawaz

Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif told a conference of the country’s envoys on Wednesday that the relationship with China has transformed into a multi-dimensional partnership, and it was …

cpecnews.com

According to sources and recently public individuals, no technical and feasibility study has been conducted regarding CPEC

 

[PakFactor]

Non of this is was viable and China knew it. Thats why they mostly invested in IPPs with guaranteed returns.

Pakistan can still course correct with reforms, then not only China but many others will come. But it will take some years.

I hate to burst the bubble of CPEC and course correction. However, the UAE alone invested $500 million in a terminal build-out in 2022-2023, which doubled its capacity between India and UAE ports, and decided to expand the Gujarat Port in a $3 billion deal this year. This year alone, India kicked off the $20 billion investment in the India-Middle East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). The first link will be with its big-time investor, the UAE.

According to a good friend and private equity partner* who handles a Saudi Prince portfolio, they are in the final phases of inking an agreement with Essar Group—Essar Ports Limited in 2025-2026 as they hammer out the technicalities. Essar Group of India is one of the largest steel investors in KSA and the largest private port operator in India, while Pakistan tries hard to get FDI into SIFC. * Many Pakistanis will be exposed to this in his fund.

So you see, your friends don't want to invest in CPEC and have piled cash into the counter to the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative.

One then really needs to question the leadership of Pakistan. You've acquired debt for this vanity project and sold it hook, line, and sinker as a "game changer" without any studies. No regional player is connected to this in any way. This is called shafting the taxpayer.

* There are political, economic, and security aspects the GCC and others aren't investing in this and other grand projects, so there is no need to repeat those.

During a friend get-together, one said of CPEC that it's a port in the middle of nowhere, and it's not beneficial on land or water. He's also a Columbia University Business School professor and on the US Treasury Analytical Team. He's one of the U.S. government's go-to men.

Also, note that the Chinese themselves have slowed down the Belt and Road Initiative and learned from their mistake of investing in Pakistan, which sold an illusionary dream and vision.

 

[Vikramaditya1]

So, all we had to do with CPEC was orient as an energy corridor - i.e., a port to receive crude, refineries to make product, rail lines and roads to transport product. Just build all that on loans from China, and then require China to pay a toll fee every year (given the debt accrued to build that infrastructure, they'd be toll-free for some years, and then eventually, Pakistan will get income).

Here's what I don't understand about this idea. Crude oil or refined products transportation costs at least 6,7 times or more than when doing it through ocean. 95+% of Chinese live at least 3000Km from Pakistan. So the time taken and the amount transported doesn't make much sense.

Now assume somehow you decide to go ahead, you transport 30000MT of fuel, which is the capacity of a small oil tanker. By road you'll need at least 1 truck per minute for that. This is the same for any large shipment between the two countries. Nothing can beat the sea route when it comes to transporting large goods over long distances. That's why I don't see a land trade route (CPEC) between the two countries viable. Infrastructure project? Sure. A trade route? Nope.