2025 China Victory Day Parade

JL-3: Marking a New Height in the Advancement of China's Strategic Nuclear Forces

The Chinese Navy publicly showcased the JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile for the first time during a military parade, a moment that signifies a new phase in the of China's strategic weapons. As the successor to the JL-2, the JL-3 boasts comprehensive improvements in range, survivability, and payload performance, and is regarded as the pinnacle achievement of China's strategic missile research and development over the past two decades.

The JL-3 is estimated to have a range of between 9,000 and 12,000 kilometers, enabling nuclear submarines operating in the deep waters of the South China Sea to directly strike nearly all targets on the U.S. mainland, far exceeding the interception range of most Western anti-submarine platforms. In the future, it will be equipped on the active Type 094A nuclear submarines as well as the Type 096 strategic nuclear submarines currently under construction, providing China's sea-based nuclear forces with transoceanic strike capabilities.

The missile employs a solid-fuel engine and an improved guidance system, and is equipped with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) technology, capable of penetrating missile defense systems and striking multiple targets simultaneously. Western analysts generally believe that each JL-3 can carry 3 to 5 nuclear warheads and can incorporate decoys and penetration aids, posing a direct challenge to the U.S. mainland's missile defense systems.

Unlike the JL-2, which was limited in range and could only function effectively within a regional scope, the debut of the JL-3 signifies that China has joined the ranks of true "triad" nuclear deterrent powers. It not only fills the strategic gap in sea-based nuclear strike capabilities but also positions China to begin competing on equal footing with the U.S. Trident II D5 and Russia's Bulava missiles in terms of capability
At 12,000 km it would make patrol areas out of northern Chinese able to cover most of CONUS, but hard for subs out is Sanya and into the SCS. For that a 14,000 km variant would probably needed. Do the VLS on the Type 096 have the length for such a hypothetical JL-3A, with such a range?
 
What about the Sea of Japan? Seems deep; would it be considered deep enough? Average depth is 1750 meters and therefore a port on the Tumen river (connected to the Bohai bay via a Canal) could be what China needs; to send subs into an relatively safe bastion China could flood with ASW ships to keep an eye out for hostile subs. It could also be a way for ships to quietly slip into the Sea of Okotosk and northern pacific.

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The Korean/Tsushima Strait is not secured, so China's SSBNs are only lucked in the South China Sea and Western Pacific Ocean.

So China's naval strength has managed to catch up with the USN at a staggering pace, and it can efficiently escort its SSBNs.
 
Regarding the "GJ-21" issue, now there's evidence.

The GJ-21 does not exist; this UAV is still a GJ-11. "21" is its tactical serial number, not its type code.

The UAV, numbered "22," was a backup for the parade's UAV(numbered "21"). It did not appear in the official parade.
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The Korean/Tsushima Strait is not secured, so China's SSBNs are only lucked in the South China Sea and Western Pacific Ocean.

So China's naval strength has managed to catch up with the USN at a staggering pace, and it can efficiently escort its SSBNs.

how many naval choke points per each nuclear hunter/attack aircraft (P8 Posidon)?

if you cannot beat naval choke points, then, you me get trapped within those choke points!

choke points favour enemy more and are asymmetric
 
how many naval choke points per each nuclear hunter/attack aircraft (P8 Posidon)?

if you cannot beat naval choke points, then, you me get trapped within those choke points!

choke points favour enemy more and are asymmetric

The P8 Poseidon cannot operate without air superiority against the 6th gen fighters.

China is also piling up its manned/unmanned nuclear subs by both quality and quantity.
 

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