Bangladesh: Analyzing Hasina era Adani Power Deal

@BananaRepublic @LeonBlack08 @SoulSpokesman @Pingle


Guys the overall cost of the power supplied by Adani in the last fiscal was 12 Taka/kwh, which is only around 2 Taka/kwh more than the cost of saying generating the same power from Payra but of course you need to pay for the plant, obtain land and not worry about pollution.

It now seems almost certain that the price is based on current coal prices and so the initial quoted 14 Taka/kwh was at the much higher coal prices from 18 months ago.





"The Adani power costs Bangladesh about 12 taka ($0.1008) a unit, an official of the Bangladesh Power Development Board said, citing the latest audit report for financial year 2023/24.
That is 27% higher than the rate of India's other private producers and as much as 63% more than Indian state-owned plants, he added."

Why are they comparing Indian price? Indian price will be dictated by all sorts of domestic subsidies and freebies like land!

What the entitled bunch want is - Adani to sell at Indian rate instead of comparative BD rate lol lol

So they would rather keep those expensive oil powered stations than buy cheaper Adani power?!!

The ultimate act of cutting nose to spite face.

This is the mentality that led to Bangladesh having 24/7 load shedding pre Hasina.
 
Why are they comparing Indian price? Indian price will be dictated by all sorts of domestic subsidies and freebies like land!

What the entitled bunch want is - Adani to sell at Indian rate instead of comparative BD rate lol lol

So they would rather keep those expensive oil powered stations than buy cheaper Adani power?!!

The ultimate act of cutting nose to spite face.

This is the mentality that led to Bangladesh having 24/7 load shedding pre Hasina.



It is good that it was in the article and I left it in there on purpose. For Adani to supply power at only 27% higher than what it would charge Indians in a much more competitive and domestic market seems reasonable.

Of course BD would need to pay more as it has that 25 year guarantee of reliable power and also it does not suffer the land loss or pollution that Indians do.
 
@BananaRepublic @LeonBlack08 @SoulSpokesman @Pingle


Guys the overall cost of the power supplied by Adani in the last fiscal was 12 Taka/kwh, which is only around 2 Taka/kwh more than the cost of saying generating the same power from Payra but of course you need to pay for the plant, obtain land and not worry about pollution.

It now seems almost certain that the price is based on current coal prices and so the initial quoted 14 Taka/kwh was at the much higher coal prices from 18 months ago.





"The Adani power costs Bangladesh about 12 taka ($0.1008) a unit, an official of the Bangladesh Power Development Board said, citing the latest audit report for financial year 2023/24.
That is 27% higher than the rate of India's other private producers and as much as 63% more than Indian state-owned plants, he added."

I will reiterate that the argument was always primarily about the need.

Nonetheless regarding cost per unit, we need to take a deeper look before comparing the rates.

The Adani group responded to the TBS report and compared the costs of local stations with theirs and here's what The Business Standard responded in response to Adani claims regarding cost. It also points finger at the 12 tk claim and it points finger at economies of scale in the local plants to explain why the local power plants were higher. Looking only at cost/kwh alone is a narrow view to assess why this deal was bad for Bangladesh. We need to take into account overall need based on capacity vs demand.

Please read the full article in the link. I am just posting the TBSs response to Adani -


Our reply:

The rejoinder does not factually contradict any part of our news story. But it tried to establish that Adani's power was not so expensive by citing examples of the high tariff of Rampal and Payra coal power plants.

The Business Standard's report on Adani clearly mentioned that the costly power from Adani's plant is one of the "many reasons" why Bangladesh is paying significantly higher rates to use electricity in recent years.

The rejoinder claimed that Adani's power tariff ultimately came down to Tk 11.89 per unit after 15 months of operation and this is lower than that of Rampal and Payra power plants.

The fact is the power tariff of Rampal and Payra power plants are also questionable and they demand a separate story. But if we dig into how the tariffs of Rampal and Payra became higher, we find that Adani's tariff was lower because its power plant was utilized to maximum potential while Rampal and Payra operated partially.

The generation cost of per unit electricity includes several cost components —---fuel cost, capacity payment and Operation and Maintenance charge. If a plant's load factor or usage of the plant is higher, the generation cost of per unit electricity of that particular plant will be cheaper.

On the other hand, if a plant remains unused or runs at limited capacity, its per unit electricity cost will be higher due to its capacity and operation and maintenance charge
.

During the said period, the Adani's plant load factor (PLF) or usage of the plant capacity was 90% while Payra and Rampal's PLF was only 60% and 34%. Shortage of coal obstructed Payra and Rampal to generate electricity at highest capacity.

As these plants were not in maximum use, but took the capacity charge as fixed cost, therefore, overall cost of per unit electricity of these plants went up.


We have argued that compared to power purchase cost from the Indian electricity exchange market, the price of Adani's power was way higher. The rejoinder just stated that we compared Adani's tariff to "decade-old" Indian power exchange rate, adding that the price of Adani power is very much aligned with the current Indian exchange market rate.

But we cited official data saying, Bangladesh bought Adani's power for Tk14.02 per kilowatt-hour (or a unit) in 2023. Bangladesh bought another 1,100MW power from India's electricity exchange market at Tk7.83 per unit. (This is what I was referring to in my previous post - of we needed to purchase electricity from India due to higher demand, why didn't we pursue more imports from TriPura at a significantly lower cost.)

In the first quarter of 2024, the cost of Adani Power's electricity has been costlier than other peer coal power plants in Bangladesh.

Cost of Payra Power plant electricity was Tk12.73 per kWh and the cost of Rampal plant's electricity was Tk11.47 in January, while the cost of Adani's electricity stood at Tk15.

In February, Payra and Rampal power plants' electricity cost was Tk13.80 and Tk13.02 per unit respectively, while Adani Power plant's electricity cost was Tk15.75.

In March, Payra's electricity cost was Tk12.65 per kWh while the cost of Adani Power's was Tk13.92 per unit.

Our report also questioned whether it was necessary to buy Adani's power at such a cost when Bangladesh still had so much surplus power generation capacity. Due to such a bad planning coupled with economic crisis, today Bangladesh has piled up arrears of $800 million with Adani alone.
 
Last edited:
Together we have debunked all of their made up accusations.

First it was cost of coal - we pointed out the calorific values of coal dictates price.

Second it was cost of unit - we pointed out the relative price of domestic producers and those built by China in the neighbourhood.

Third it was capacity - we pointed out that buying power from Adani enables BD to shutdown inefficient, polluting and expensive, mainly oil based, power stations. Saving the country billions.

Only innuendo now they have is corruption - I am definitely open to that - but instead of blathering IG needs to provide proof and take it to international arbitration. Corruption allegations cannot be fought on social media - it needs to go to court.

@UKBengali

The argument was always the need. When we have 3 brand new plants not operating to their full potential resulting in excess capacity over demand.

If you can't understand that, it's your failure.

You have debunked absolutely nothing.
 
Last edited:
@LeonBlack08

You have neatly pirouetted across the key point. No explanation of why zillions of units of BDT 20 plus power has to be purchased when cheaper options are available at Godda, Payra and Rampal?

Regards
 
The argument was always the need. When we have 3 brand new plants not operating to their full potential resulting in excess capacity over demand.

If you can't understand that, it's your failure.

You have debunked absolutely nothing.

BD only has “excess capacity” when you count unreliable, expensive and polluting power plants.

Hasina planned to shut them down to save the country billions!
 
@LeonBlack08

You have neatly pirouetted across the key point. No explanation of why zillions of units of BDT 20 plus power has to be purchased when cheaper options are available at Godda, Payra and Rampal?

Regards

I already responded to you on this. Was the intent to purchase from Adani to replace all gas and oil based plants?

Clearly not since it appears even the brand new commissioned coal plants were not utilized 100% due to lack of coal or whatever other reason. Had that been the case, the Hasina admin itself would phase those oil based plants to replace with the lower cost coal based ones. But despite being commissioned in 2022 some of these plants are still not operating at max capacity. Why is that? Is there not enough demand? Then why purchase more electricity from outside?

You may think it is logical to switch everything to coal based because it is cheaper compared to others, but in reality it is not possible to do that from risk management perspective.

You need a diverse mix in your overall portfolio of power generation to mitigate concentration risk. That's why there will always be oil and gas based plants operating at a higher cost.

Then also comes the issue of pollution - coal based ones have the worst impact on environment, which is another reason why not everything will be switched to coal.

Finally we have nuclear power plant coming online which is going to significantly boost the capacity. When you consider all these available capacity, the Adani deal becomes redundant.
 
BD only has “excess capacity” when you count unreliable, expensive and polluting power plants.

Hasina planned to shut them down to save the country billions!

Where was this plan? Payra Rampal and other came online 2-3 years now. Why were they still running at 60% and 34% of their max efficiency? In contrast Adani which came online later was running at max capacity. Don't tell me about technical superiority. These new plants were by India and China and one even Japanese if I am not mistaken.

You are not fooling anyone but yourself.
 
But we cited official data saying, Bangladesh bought Adani's power for Tk14.02 per kilowatt-hour (or a unit) in 2023. Bangladesh bought another 1,100MW power from India's electricity exchange market at Tk7.83 per unit. (This is what I was referring to in my previous post - of we needed to purchase electricity from India due to higher demand, why didn't we pursue more imports from TriPura at a significantly lower cost.)
Is that hydro power from Tripura ? If yes, availability and rates can't be same.
Can you link some article?
 
I already responded to you on this. Was the intent to purchase from Adani to replace all gas and oil based plants?

Clearly not since it appears even the brand new commissioned coal plants were not utilized 100% due to lack of coal or whatever other reason. Had that been the case, the Hasina admin itself would phase those oil based plants to replace with the lower cost coal based ones. But despite being commissioned in 2022 some of these plants are still not operating at max capacity. Why is that? Is there not enough demand? Then why purchase more electricity from outside?

You may think it is logical to switch everything to coal based because it is cheaper compared to others, but in reality it is not possible to do that from risk management perspective.

You need a diverse sources in your overall portfolio of power generation to mitigate concentration risk. That's why there will always be oil and gas based plants operating at a higher cost.

Then also comes the issue of pollution - coal based ones have the worst impact on environment, which is another reason why not everything will be switched to coal.

Finally we have nuclear power plant coming online which is going to significantly boost the capacity. When you consider all these available capacity, the Adani deal becomes redundant.

If all you say is correct - tell us why BD is paying 20BDT to domestic suppliers.

Why aren’t they shuttered already?
 
@LeonBlack08

It is funny that you cite pollution of coal based plants as an argument against Adani. Godda is in IND, and by that logic the least polluting of your problems.

Give up, man, or you will keep tying yourself in knots.

Regards
 
If all you say is correct - tell us why BD is paying 20BDT to domestic suppliers.

Why aren’t they shuttered already?

You ask Hasina. She had solid 2-3 years to shut them. Why didn't she? Are you saying she is corrupt?

Also refer to my post above about mix of multiple sources in portfolio from risk management perspective. Some of these expensive plants will likely always be in the books.
 
Where was this plan? Payra Rampal and other came online 2-3 years now. Why were they still running at 60% and 34% of their max efficiency? In contrast Adani which came online later was running at max capacity. Don't tell me about technical superiority. These new plants were by India and China and one even Japanese if I am not mistaken.

You are not fooling anyone but yourself.

Eh! Because Payra and Rampal couldn’t be fully operational due to forex crunch?

Plan was running late but it was still going to be executed until the juvenile delinquents derailed it!
 
@LeonBlack08

It is funny that you cite pollution of coal based plants as an argument against Adani. Godda is in IND, and by that logic the least polluting of your problems.

Give up, man, or you will keep tying yourself in knots.

Regards

Again cherry picking and diversion.

Last I checked I am in Bangladesh section discussing my country's internal affairs.
 
@LeonBlack08

It is funny that you cite pollution of coal based plants as an argument against Adani. Godda is in IND, and by that logic the least polluting of your problems.

Give up, man, or you will keep tying yourself in knots.

Regards

I didn’t know he cared about India so much.

Maybe “dil hain hindustani”?

His levels of arguments only work within a small section of BD.

They will not stack up at the international arena.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Pakistan Defence Latest

Back
Top