Bangladesh: Analyzing Hasina era Adani Power Deal

SoulSpokesman said:
@Bengal71

Ekattor Dada,

If they take it to international court same corruption can be proved.

The IG can prove corruption in domestic courts for sure, but not in international courts.

Regards

@UKBengali @BananaRepublic
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Proving it in BD court is meaningless.

It has to be proved in a court that has the power to pass judgement on the contract.

Adani wouldn’t sign a contract that can be arbitrated in a BD court.

Actually, I cannot think of any multinational company that would be submissive to the courts of an LDC.

Even Argentina has to submit to the second circuit court in NY.
 
UKBengali said:
MOD EDIT: Thread dedicated for discussions related to Adani Power Deal.

Re-Posting this:

Adani Godda Power Project
Too Expensive, Too Late, and Too Risky for Bangladesh
April 2018
Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis
Tim Buckley, Director of Energy Finance Studies, Australasia ([email protected]) and
Simon Nicholas, Energy Finance Analyst ([email protected])

Report too long to copy and paste - but the PDF is attached.




I think the new BD government is actually looking at Adani maybe walking out of the contract or trying to renegotiate as 14 Taka/Kwh is a bit high.

Something like 11-12 Taka/Kwh would have been a more fair price, taking into account the fact that Adani built the plant for 3 billion US dollars and the pollution ends up in India and not in BD.

Adani should be willing to at least drop the price down to 11-12 Taka/Kwh and a new modfied contract can be signed. Of course BD needs to pay all outstanding dues at the current 14 Taka/KwH price.
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Is there any chance for MAPNA to take part in Bangladesh's national projects?

They saved Russians from German sanctions.
 
muhammed45 said:
Is there any chance for MAPNA to take part in Bangladesh's national projects?

They saved Russians from German sanctions.
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Sorry bro but BD cannot risk US/western sanctions.

USA along with Germany are the two largest markets for BD garments. BD also gets a lots of low interest loans from institution like IMF/ADB/JICA that US has heavy influence on.

Hopefully within 5-10 years as west gets progressively weaker and BD becomes a more stronger economy, BD and Iran can build mutually beneficial economic relations.

Apart from infrastructure and energy, Iran has or will soon have lots of other technologies such as SLV and satellites that BD would be highly interested in.

Muslim countries not freely trading and co-operating with each other is one of the major reasons the Muslim world is in such a weak state.
 
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OK, one question about Rooppur plant. If I understand correct, it has a capacity of 2400 MW and a cost of USD 13.2 billion. If this is correct, the capacity charges alone will be about 10 cents at full load- all inclusive perhaps 11 cents or BDT 13. That means it would still be costlier than Adani. What do the learned people have to say?

Regards

@Bengal71 @LeonBlack08 @UKBengali @BananaRepublic
 
SoulSpokesman said:
OK, one question about Rooppur plant. If I understand correct, it has a capacity of 2400 MW and a cost of USD 13.2 billion. If this is correct, the capacity charges alone will be about 10 cents at full load- all inclusive perhaps 11 cents or BDT 13. That means it would still be costlier than Adani. What do the learned people have to say?

Regards

@Bengal71 @LeonBlack08 @UKBengali @BananaRepublic
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You misunderstand.

Roopur will in fact be quite cheap over its FULL 60-80 year lifespan as BD would have paid off the loans in the first 30 years.

However when the reactor comes online the cost per kw/h will be similar as BD needs to pay back the loan, pay for nuclear fuel and also operational/maintenance costs. Paying back the loan will be the largest amount.
 
@UKBengali

Fair point. Perhaps I should have qualified by saying that in the initial years, Rooppur will be expensive.

Regards
 
UKBengali said:
You misunderstand.

Roopur will in fact be quite cheap over its FULL 60-80 year lifespan as BD would have paid off the loans in the first 30 years.

However when the reactor comes online the cost per kw/h will be similar as BD needs to pay back the loan, pay for nuclear fuel and also operational/maintenance costs. Paying back the loan will be the largest amount.
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@SoulSpokesman

In addition to @UKBengali point - we won't have to rely for a strategic resource from an increasingly hostile country, especially considering the events from yesterday.
 
Importing electricity from another country always seemed so weird to me. First heard of electricity imports by Thailand from Myanmar way back in the late 90s. Now the kingdom imports from Laos via hydro dams at very cheap rates.

Coming to Bangladesh today, common sense should dictate that importing electricity from a potentially hostile country is unwise.

And like it or not, Adani is a crook.
 
Strider said:
Importing electricity from another country always seemed so weird to me. First heard of electricity imports by Thailand from Myanmar way back in the late 90s. Now the kingdom imports from Laos via hydro dams at very cheap rates.

Coming to Bangladesh today, common sense should dictate that importing electricity from a potentially hostile country is unwise.

And like it or not, Adani is a crook.
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Any country can be "potentially hostile".

Adani deal is done and the clock cannot really be turned back. Overall it is not the worse deal in the world as it helped close a lot of expensive furnace oil/diesel plants. As Roopur comes online next year, then the rest of the 20 Taka+/kwh plants can also be closed.
 
Strider said:
Are you for real? lol.
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Outside of Europe, USA/Canada, no country can ever really have confidence that relations with another won't go south 10 or 20 years down the line.

BD is unique in the sense it has so few natural resources to generate energy with such a huge population. Luckily BD can import power from India/Nepal/Bhutan to try to keep energy costs down for industry and consumers.
 
SoulSpokesman said:
OK, one question about Rooppur plant. If I understand correct, it has a capacity of 2400 MW and a cost of USD 13.2 billion. If this is correct, the capacity charges alone will be about 10 cents at full load- all inclusive perhaps 11 cents or BDT 13. That means it would still be costlier than Adani. What do the learned people have to say?

Regards

@Bengal71 @LeonBlack08 @UKBengali @BananaRepublic
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I would tolerate Roopur to be about 5tk above Adani for the following reasons:

1. It’s clean
2. Technology and skill transfer. Hasina achieved a great feat by getting Bangladeshis involved in nuclear power. Not just dreaming about it!!!
3. Whilst it cannot be fully “sovereign” given Russian expertise and supply - it is more sovereign than Adani. BD needs to control about 60% of energy production for minimum security.

And security is not just about wars - it’s more likely about India redirecting electricity in case of a natural disaster.

As I have said from begging - Adani isn’t competing with Roopur or domestic gas fired power - Adani need only beat the ageing and inefficient petro guzzlers.
 
UKBengali said:
Outside of Europe, USA/Canada, no country can ever really have confidence that relations with another won't go south 10 or 20 years down the line.

BD is unique in the sense it has so few natural resources to generate energy with such a huge population. Luckily BD can import power from India/Nepal/Bhutan to try to keep energy costs down for industry and consumers.
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The only time and stress tested alliance is the White Ango-Sexon Protestant countries. AKA WASP

They have been on the same side of colonialism, two world wars, Cold War and now dealing with the rise of China.

All other alliances and marriages are of convenience and not stress tested.

I will go further and say the least reliable alliances are the ones between Muslim countries.

Hence, it’s stupid to think BD’s relationship with India is any less unreliable than any other non-WASP alliances.

You would only mistrust India more - if your intention was to deliberately antagonise India.
 
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