HostileInsurgent
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- Jun 10, 2024
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Actually around half the figureHe told me that, BD's actual GDP figure is likely to be around $400 billions.
Actually around half the figureHe told me that, BD's actual GDP figure is likely to be around $400 billions.
Actually around half the figure
Why not? You're more of an export-oriented economy than a consumption one.Amm..no. BD doesn't have the industrial set up to export $50 billions from a $200 billions economy. Beside, the person who I talked to is an actual economist. Definitely knows what he is talking about.
And we know that BB's figure is accurate becuase of IMF formula which now they have to follow as prerequisite for the loan installments.
It was quite obvious since atleast 2018 that BD's export & GDP figures are blotted.In a nuthsell, Bangladesh actual Export was around $51 billions last year, but Government Export Promotion beauru showed it as $62+ billions.
Similar/even worse data mismatch ($14 billions) has also been observed this year.
But that just tip of the iceberg. It is does not merely question credibility of other government agencies and their stats, we all know very well they are also complicit in similar data fabrication. It's just that there is no way to prove it.
Personally, I recently got to talk to an economist who is a professor at an university.
He told me that, BD's actual GDP figure is likely to be around $400 billions. And it is inflated by more 10% in government published figure. ($450 billions, lol)
Also, government significantly manipulated the latest census. (I knew it before, the actual population numbers could be as high as 190 millions.)
That's puts our actual GDP per Capita just above $2000. Lol. Our GDP per Capita never surpassed the Indian one. They were running with the fake story for years. @UKBengali (bruh,)
@Bengal71 @Arthur @Joe Shearer and @Nilgiri (I swear if you tell me, I told you so....)
@Al-Zakir bro, there is another thread with similar report. But this one is more accurate, comprehensive and in good faith. I request you to keep it and delete the other one. Or you can merge that one with this.
Also, please keep the upcoming trolls in check.
You have some legit point here.Why not? You're more of an export-oriented economy than a consumption one.
You have some legit point here.
Atleast vis a vis Vietnam.
I hope someone with good knowledge willggive us some probable scenarios.
Why not? You're more of an export-oriented economy than a consumption one.
Obviously, we are being completely cynical here. Not all of the $14 billions is fake. There are legitimate reasons for the mismatch.
I.e. some exporters may be withholding proceeds due to political concerns, while others may be delaying transfers to benefit from the taka's depreciation against the dollar,
Additionally, the unfavorable exchange rate may incentivize some exporters to utilize unofficial channels, further straining Bangladesh's foreign exchange reserves. These are legitimate reasons and at best may account for $3-4 billions mismatch. But nearly $14 billion disparity obviously points toward fabrication.
BD per capita PPP which does not rely on export figures or nominal values shows similar numbers to India.
The average BD'shi now has similar living standards to the average Indian.
No, everything needs to be recalculated again. Read the article.
@Bengal71 @Arthur @Joe Shearer and @Nilgiri (I swear if you tell me, I told you so....)
Its beating a dead horse with some that are ideologically convinced on something. Best leave it to be and give it even more time, and they look even sillier later.
PPP is literally calculated from the nominal base with a PPP multiplier. So first big oops is if the nominal base has whatever inflation (price level or political needs etc) to begin with.
The PPP multiplier again requires ICP updating (regarding the price levels locally, and qualitative needs regarding this), this is done only every 5 years or so and then back-applied as well. I posted the ICP website and papers tons of times on old PDF, but you can only lead a horse to water, you can't make it drink.
Anyway I always said time + reality fixes every agenda. Ideological/emotional needs can't beat time and reality in end. It will be something to watch
Exports/imports is one of best numbers that are credible to anything produced within the country statistically.... as there is vetting from other countries on their end. So its no surprise this shows up now when integrals from other countries are essentially cross referenced and discrepancy found now.
There's other base inputs (hard to distort/fudge for number of reasons) that can be tracked to..... none of it stacks well with the whole "east asian tiger are result of and needed authoritiarn regimes as prerequisite" spiel ideology for Hasina/BAL family/regime cringe apologia at any cost.....as one can look at energy consumption of say South Korea during its growth....the correlation here.
But the bigger question looms always: how do you get BD to reform on basic things so it improves to a more genuine credible tier to get more quality investment for the current stock of human capital it has? BD is so polarized politically that there is need for "all in" winner takes all dynamic. It would have been better for BD if the two ladies were lot more reasonable with each other.... but then this gets into all kind of rabbit holes.....one lady never forgives the other side for killing whole family and then throwing a grenade at her rally (while she out of power)....and now that vengeance dynamic costs BD as whole as there is not really much institutional heft outside of executive power....as BD itself is small and compact country with such high population at same time. Its very unique problem its got baked in.
But then, India is currently at $5.4 trillion.Well, no. there is other indicators point to the comparative size of BD economy.
Domestic Market cap is one obvious one. It's around $70-80 billions. For comparison, Pakistan's market cap is around $30-35 billions.
HDI itself is a survey based index that depends upon GDP per capita PPP which itself is calculated by dividing GDP per capita nominal by price level ratio. So, if nominal GDP is inflated, PPP gets inflated as well.There are HDI indicators that are hard to fabricates. It's not possible to reach those stats with a $1000 per capita GDP.
But then, India is currently at $5.4 trillion.
Market cap is a different thing all together.
There honestly isn't much to point towards it having that high GDP size.
But then, India is currently at $5.4 trillion.
Market cap is a different thing all together.
There honestly isn't much to point towards it having that high GDP size.
HDI itself is a survey based index that depends upon GDP per capita PPP which itself is calculated by dividing GDP per capita nominal by price level ratio.