Bangladesh Economy

SoulSpokesman said:
@Joe Shearer

Dada,

Curious to know about West Bengali investments/companies in BD businesses.

Regards
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I don't think that would be appropriate. Most of these - from West Bengal, a very small number - would like to keep a low profile, until bridges are in place to the new administration.
 
@Joe Shearer

OK, I understand. I presume our common friend- the self-proclaimed expert on Indo-BD relations will be one of those investors?

Regards
 
SoulSpokesman said:
@Joe Shearer

OK, I understand. I presume our common friend- the self-proclaimed expert on Indo-BD relations will be one of those investors?

Regards
Click to expand...
A very minor one. There are several others, not many more, but considerably bigger. Diverse backgrounds, including the optimistic one that we all know, admire and even fear.
 
Everyone - please stay on topic. You can use the Chill Bangladesh thread for unrelated discussions.
 
SoulSpokesman said:
@LeonBlack08

4.1% GDP growth is excellent in the current context globally. Most countries will be thrilled to have this.

Regards

@UKBengali @BananaRepublic
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Very poor for a country like BD. It will be barely enough to keep up with global inflation and number of people joining the workforce.

4.1% is natural growth due to rising and ageing population.

It means the IG is impotent otherwise you would see another 2-3% on top - through external investment.

External investment seems to have dried up.

Even internal investors have been frightened off.
 
SoulSpokesman said:
@LeonBlack08

4.1% GDP growth is excellent in the current context globally. Most countries will be thrilled to have this.

Regards

@UKBengali @BananaRepublic
Click to expand...


This is quite pessimisic as other organisations like ADB predict 5% for this fiscal and historically ADB has been the most accurate as regards BD economy.

I am leaning more on the ADB figures as exports are doing really well so far in this fiscal - up double digits in H1 2024-2025 as compared to the same period in fiscal 2023-2024.
 
UKBengali said:
This is quite pessimisic as other organisations like ADB predict 5% for this fiscal and historically ADB has been the most accurate as regards BD economy.

I am leaning more on the ADB figures as exports are doing really well so far in this fiscal - up double digits in H1 2024-2025 as compared to the same period in fiscal 2023-2024.
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Recent export figures are from orders placed 3-6 months back.

Any idea what the current order books look like?

Is there an equivalent to the UK’s PMI index in BD?
 
BananaRepublic said:
Recent export figures are from orders placed 3-6 months back.

Any idea what the current order books look like?

Is there an equivalent to the UK’s PMI index in BD?
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I have compared exports between July-December 2024 to same period last year.

This allows time for backlogs to be cleared and gives a real representation of how exports are doing.
 
UKBengali said:
I have compared exports between July-December 2024 to same period last year.

This allows time for backlogs to be cleared and gives a real representation of how exports are doing.
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Yes.

But July-December numbers reflect Hasina’s policies including getting stuff like letters of credit.

Current order book will be representative of IG’s policies including their rules around letters of credit.

This will be reflected in post December numbers.

Am very curious to see the impact.

I genuinely don’t know which way things will swing on this particular issue.

IG’s illiterate conflation of “tax avoidance” and “tax evasion” is also disturbing!
 
BananaRepublic said:
Yes.

But July-December numbers reflect Hasina’s policies including getting stuff like letters of credit.

Current order book will be representative of IG’s policies including their rules around letters of credit.

This will be reflected in post December numbers.

Am very curious to see the impact.

I genuinely don’t know which way things will swing on this particular issue.

IG’s illiterate conflation of “tax avoidance” and “tax evasion” is also disturbing!
Click to expand...


BD is no longer a low-end textile exporter and has moved up the value chain.

It has extensive backward linkages and so if there is any move away from BD garments it will take many years to move all this production capacity elsewhere.

India and even Vietnam cannot just jump in to pick up these orders as it takes time to build capacity.

It would have been very easy for companies to have cancelled large orders from BD as there are penalty and even get-out clauses but they chose to stick with BD for the reasons I have mentioned.

Interestingly garment work orders by start of September last year for 2025 Autumn/winter was only down by 10%. This is incredible when you think about the loss of law and order and sudden change of government in early August.
 
UKBengali said:
BD is no longer a low-end textile exporter and has moved up the value chain.

It has extensive backward linkages and so if there is any move away from BD garments it will take many years to move all this production capacity elsewhere.

India and even Vietnam cannot just jump in to pick up these orders as it takes time to build capacity.

It would have been very easy for companies to have cancelled large orders from BD as there are penalty and even get-out clauses but they chose to stick with BD for the reasons I have mentioned.

Interestingly garment work orders by start of September last year for 2025 Autumn/winter was only down by 10%. This is incredible when you think about the loss of law and order and sudden change of government in early August.
Click to expand...

Yes, it will be slow at first then steep decline after.

Anyway let’s see.

Pakistan and India are counting their chickens lol
 
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