Chengdu J-20 5th Generation Aircraft News & Discussions

[FHN]

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450-500 j-20 fighters by end of the year

 

[SecularNationalist]

Worlds first twin engine stealth fighter. A true beast with no competitor.

 

[Nuffle]

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450-500 j-20 fighters by end of the year

If it has 500 J-20s by the end of the year with annual production at 100 J-20s, the PLAAF would have between 900-1,000 J-20s by the end of 2030, which is entirely conceivable in the PLAAF's strategic plan to equal or exceed the USAF in the number of combat aircraft by 2030.

 

[Hendarto]

More and more bases are converting to J-20 Brigades. Two air bases previously reported to be equipped with J-20 fighters are confirmed from satellite photos.P1, 2 Jining, NTC; P3, 4 Changxing Huzhou, ETC.

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[RealNapster]

If it has 500 J-20s by the end of the year with annual production at 100 J-20s, the PLAAF would have between 900-1,000 J-20s by the end of 2030, which is entirely conceivable in the PLAAF's strategic plan to equal or exceed the USAF in the number of combat aircraft by 2030.

I don't believe China will be seeking more than 800 J-20s. Because

1. J-35 is coming. It's not like China will operate 1000 J-20 and 1000 J-35. Both maybe max 1500 combinely.

2. 6th generation fighters in-sight.

3. Too many 4 and 4.5 generation fighters. Meaning need for 5th generation (before 6th generation is activated) won't be that much.

I believe that to accommodate 1500 J-35 and J-20s, china will be decommissioning all J-10A, Su-30, SU-35 etc. so about 1000 4/4.5 jets, 1500 Fifth generation, and remaining 6th generation.

 

[iblini]

I don't believe China will be seeking more than 800 J-20s. Because

1. J-35 is coming. It's not like China will operate 1000 J-20 and 1000 J-35. Both maybe max 1500 combinely.

2. 6th generation fighters in-sight.

3. Too many 4 and 4.5 generation fighters. Meaning need for 5th generation (before 6th generation is activated) won't be that much.

I believe that to accommodate 1500 J-35 and J-20s, china will be decommissioning all J-10A, Su-30, SU-35 etc. so about 1000 4/4.5 jets, 1500 Fifth generation, and remaining 6th generation.

Yeah, the numbers just don't add up like 100 per year, and we'll have a thousand by x years. There are too many variables and considerations. I'd say the number of fifth gen aircraft would reach a thousand with J20 and J35 combined.

 

[Deino]

Worlds first twin engine stealth fighter. A true beast with no competitor.

Pardon? So the F-22 was and still is NOT a „twin engine stealth fighter“ for you?

 

[Deino]

More and more bases are converting to J-20 Brigades. Two air bases previously reported to be equipped with J-20 fighters are confirmed from satellite photos.P1, 2 Jining, NTC; P3, 4 Changxing Huzhou, ETC.

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Please, you are again jumping the band-waggon without checking facts: Nothing is new.

These are not new bases, but just new confirmations … Jinan with the 55th AB was long rumoured but so far not confirmed but given that also from its former Flankers I think only two images are available it was no surprise and the other one - home of the 8th Ab - is long confirmed with several images available.

 

[SecularNationalist]

Pardon? So the F-22 was and still is NOT a „twin engine stealth fighter“ for you?

Lol sorry I mean twin seated stealth fighter.

 

[SecularNationalist]

Worlds first twin engine stealth fighter. A true beast with no competitor.

*Twin Seated Stealth Fighter

 

[Nuffle]

I don't believe China will be seeking more than 800 J-20s. Because

1. J-35 is coming. It's not like China will operate 1000 J-20 and 1000 J-35. Both maybe max 1500 combinely.

2. 6th generation fighters in-sight.

3. Too many 4 and 4.5 generation fighters. Meaning need for 5th generation (before 6th generation is activated) won't be that much.

I believe that to accommodate 1500 J-35 and J-20s, china will be decommissioning all J-10A, Su-30, SU-35 etc. so about 1000 4/4.5 jets, 1500 Fifth generation, and remaining 6th generation.

If we assume that the J-35 is cheaper than the J-20, then it makes sense for the J-35 to have more units than the J-20. However, J-20 production would need to decline in terms of annual units produced to avoid 1,000 J-20s. This is not something I expect, considering the number of units the PLAAF needs to modernize its entire fleet and expand its combat aircraft fleet to match the USAF/USN.

I believe the number of J-20s could reach 1,000 units by the end of 2030 if this annual production rate is maintained, but it will slow down after that due to the 6th generation, which is the same period in which the new generation will enter service. Meanwhile, the PLAAF will be receiving the J-16, J-20, and J-35, in addition to upgrading the J-10C.

The number of fighter jets in the PLAAF could exceed >2,000 units, with more than 70% being 5th generation aircraft.

 

[RealNapster]

If we assume that the J-35 is cheaper than the J-20, then it makes sense for the J-35 to have more units than the J-20. However, J-20 production would need to decline in terms of annual units produced to avoid 1,000 J-20s. This is not something I expect, considering the number of units the PLAAF needs to modernize its entire fleet and expand its combat aircraft fleet to match the USAF/USN.

I believe the number of J-20s could reach 1,000 units by the end of 2030 if this annual production rate is maintained, but it will slow down after that due to the 6th generation, which is the same period in which the new generation will enter service. Meanwhile, the PLAAF will be receiving the J-16, J-20, and J-35, in addition to upgrading the J-10C.

The number of fighter jets in the PLAAF could exceed >2,000 units, with more than 70% being 5th generation aircraft.

I agree. This doesn't make any sense. If you look at current operational J-20s and production rate, you can easily forecast 1000 J-20 by around 2031. Also, the increase in J-20 production rate is recent, it's not like China will expand production this year and stop producing the next year. So they are expected to touch 1000 soon. But then J-35 is supposed to be the cheaper one and hence would justify larger numbers. Recent production facility for J-35 also shows it is capable of producing 150+ J-35 per year, easily. So both seem to be touching 1000 each which doesn't make sense. China do not require 2000 5G fighters neither would it make so much. Because 1500+ J-16, J-15, J-11, J-10C , add 1000 J-20, 1000 J-35, it's easily 3500 fighters all 4/4.5/5 generations. Chinese ambitions justify a fleet size of around 3000 jets, nothing more than that. Now where do you accommodate the 6G in this mix ??

I am not that much aware of PLAAF strategy in this regard, maybe knowledgeable Chinese and other experienced members can comment on this.

 

[SolarWarden]

Lol sorry I mean twin seated stealth fighter.

The reason why a "5th gen" fighter like the J20 would need another human in the cockpit is because that fighter's avionics isn't advanced enough to handle such complicated task like CCA and likely other task. F-35 or F-22 don't need two man crew for CCA.

 

[Hendarto]

I agree. This doesn't make any sense. If you look at current operational J-20s and production rate, you can easily forecast 1000 J-20 by around 2031. Also, the increase in J-20 production rate is recent, it's not like China will expand production this year and stop producing the next year. So they are expected to touch 1000 soon. But then J-35 is supposed to be the cheaper one and hence would justify larger numbers. Recent production facility for J-35 also shows it is capable of producing 150+ J-35 per year, easily. So both seem to be touching 1000 each which doesn't make sense. China do not require 2000 5G fighters neither would it make so much. Because 1500+ J-16, J-15, J-11, J-10C , add 1000 J-20, 1000 J-35, it's easily 3500 fighters all 4/4.5/5 generations. Chinese ambitions justify a fleet size of around 3000 jets, nothing more than that. Now where do you accommodate the 6G in this mix ??

I am not that much aware of PLAAF strategy in this regard, maybe knowledgeable Chinese and other experienced members can comment on this.

I think you got it wrong. The 150 production of 5G jets is for both J-20 and J-35. China faces the whole Western alliance in the Taiwan contingencies. That means combined US, Japan, and NATO inventories, the US alone has 5000 aircraft of various kinds, not counting Japan, Korea, and NATO. So, if anything, 1000 J 20 by 2030 is too little. They should ramp up production of J 35, which they did !

Japan's Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) operates a fleet of approximately 321 fighter aircraft as of 2023. This includes various types like the F-15J/DJ, F-2, and F-35A. Japan is also actively modernizing its fighter jet capabilities with the acquisition of F-35s, including both the A and B models.

 

[lightning f57]

The reason why a "5th gen" fighter like the J20 would need another human in the cockpit is because that fighter's avionics isn't advanced enough to handle such complicated task like CCA and likely other task. F-35 or F-22 don't need two man crew for CCA.

So does that make the B21-raider crap then.