imadul
Elite Member
O Bhai, iron brother undermining other iron brother's strategic move.IMO, I don't think this is a reaction to Pakistan. Due to the ongoing trade war, China's move was going to happen with or without the US deal with Pakistan. It should be viewed purely in the context of the great power rivalry between USA and China. China is increasing its leverage for any future trade negotiation and eventual settlement (which has to occur at some point, given the interdependent nature of the US and Chinese economies). From the Chinese perspective, this is a logical response to the increasing export controls by the US on advanced NM scale semiconductors which will form the backbone of the future datacenters in the new AI economy. Both China and the US are strengthening their bargaining positions.
Moreover, Pakistan is not even a drop in the ocean at this point in the rare earth game. We may have signed a $500M agreement with the US, but tbh that is not huge. It will take many years before mining can scale up to a point that can be deemed significant. Then comes the refinement process and actual magnet manufacturing which is a whole different ball game. Even if Pakistan has large rare earth reserves, a $500M investment is nowhere near enough to create the scale and scope to challenge Chinese dominance in this sector. China already has a monopoly in both mining and manufacturing, and is constantly investing billions every year - much more than a $500M one-off. They are under no threat of losing that crown for even the next 10-15 years. By then, I believe, US and China would have negotiated a trade settlement anyway. That's why I think, Chinese will not at all mind Pak's moves to bring other countries, including the US, to invest in its mining sector. If anything, it also creates an additional supply of raw materials for their refinement/processing industry which is growing at an exponential rate.
Mind it, export controls on rare metals is China's strategic move. Hope you understand the difference, strategic and tactical.
So may be Chinese won't show much reaction outwardly, as they are not duffer and transaction oriented like GHQ, but reaction they would do at their own time.










