China may soon have more J-20 stealth fighters than the USAF has F-35As

[Beijingwalker]

China may soon have more J-20 stealth fighters than the USAF has F-35As​

Why China's J-20s are on course to surpass the number of F-35s in service with the USAF, but not the total number of F-35s.
Aaron Spray
July 6, 2026

China’s fighter jet numbers are opaque and shrouded in secrecy, but it appears the number of PLAAF J-20s may be approaching the point at which they surpass the number of US Air Force F-35As.

As a disclaimer, China does not release inventory numbers (the US does), and it is unclear how many aircraft are lost to mishaps or are not combat-worthy (data points that the US discloses).

Around 500 J-20s now estimated in PLAAF service

In September 2025, China OSINT watcher @RupprechtDeino posted, “Hey !! J-20 serial number 63106 has arrived at the Changchun Air Show 2025… even more important, finally it is one where the construction number is visible: CB10300, aka from Batch 10 & the 300th J-20 in total!”

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Due to Chinese secrecy, estimates are often educated guesswork, based on factors such as identified serial numbers and satellite imagery. It is not possible to confirm the serial numbers are accurate or used for messaging.

China also appears to have a de facto export ban on the J-20. This makes it more difficult to assess the capabilities of the aircraft, although it means all J-20s produced are for the PLAAF (unlike the F-35).

At the beginning of 2026, think-tank Rusi’s Justin Bronk estimated that China had 320-350 J-20s in service by the end of 2025 with an annual production rate of 120.

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In June 2026, OSINT account @Hurin92 posted an updated estimate with @RupprechtDeino and calculated that China had around 500 J-20s in service.

Soon to be the most acquired fighter jet of any service

A recent article by the pro-Russian website, Military Watch Magazine, claims that the Chinese Chengdu J-20 is now the most-produced fighter of any service since the Cold War. However, this seems premature.

Photo: Ministry of National Defense of the People’s Republic of China


While there are multiple issues with this statement (including implied equivalence of the platforms), it is worth noting that the PLAAF has been acquiring the jet in massive numbers in recent years.

The only fighter jets that come close in terms of delivery numbers are the F-35 and Chinese J-16.

Taken together, US and Chinese fighter jet deliveries accounted for around 85% of all frontline fighter jet deliveries in 2025.

A total of 191 F-35s were delivered in 2025 to the US Air Force, US Marines, US Navy, and export air forces. This number was especially high due to lower deliveries in 2024, allowing Lockheed to clear stored aircraft refused delivery following issues with the Technology Refresh 3 update.

Lockheed has delivered over 1,300 F-35s of all variants to all customers, of which around 550-580 are estimated to have been delivered to the US Air Force. For now, this remains (marginally) above estimates of J-20 deliveries to the PLAAF.

Additionally, around 630-650 F/A-18E/F Super Hornets have been delivered to the US Navy since the type entered service in the 1990s. The final Super Hornets are on order by the Navy, and Boeing is expected to end production in 2027.

Chinese PLAAF still lacking tanker aircraft

The transformation of the Chinese PLAAF is breathtaking, but also needs some qualifications. While China is acquiring new fighter jets at a rate of around 200 per year, its total number of jets in service does not appear to have grown.

Photo: Mike Mareen / stock.adobe.com

This is because China had many obsolete aircraft like the J-6, J-7, J-8, Q-5, etc, and others in service. These appear to have been largely withdrawn from use, and some are reported to be retrofitted as one-way attack drones/cruise missiles.

In fact, IISS Military Balance data shows PLAAF combat aircraft (fighters/multirole/ground-attack) dropping from around 2,453 in 2007 to around 2,065 in 2025.

A notable area lacking in the Chinese PLAAF (at least for now) is tanker aircraft. China is estimated to have only a couple of dozen tanker aircraft made up of Ukrainian-supplied Il-78s as well as some configured YY-20As and H-6U/DU aircraft. The USAF has around 75% of the world’s tankers depending on counting methodology.

Photo: N509FZ / Wikimedia Commons


To compensate for the lack of tanker capacity, aircraft like the J-20 (and seemingly the J-36) are built with large internal fuel volumes. Something similar with Russia’s Flanker family.

Without tankers, the PLAAF will likely have the range to threaten the First Island Chain (e.g., Taiwan, some Japanese southern islands), but it may struggle to project airpower past that.

 

[NGAD IS THE BEST]

didn't China already surpass the quantity of F-22 with J-20 (185 F-22 vs 250/300 J-20)?

 

[niubi]

didn't China already surpass the quantity of F-22 with J-20 (185 F-22 vs 250/300 J-20)?

You have to combine F-22 and F-35 numbers in USAF + USN for a fair comparison.

That would be around 185 F-22s + close to 600 F-35s (counting all the F-35s that don't have radars installed due to delay of upgrades and material shortages).

China had 250-300 J-20s back in 2023.

The current J-20 count is close to 500. There are a few sources which claim two new brigades received J-20s, making the total around 600 (or they suppose >600).

The PLAAF receives >120 J-20s per year. Whereas the USAF + USN receive approx 60 F-35s per year.

J-35 production facilities comparison to J-20's indicate 150-200 J-35s per year once it hits mass production.

Keeping in mind these are both heavier 5th gens than the F-35.

 

[niubi]

Once J-35 hits mass production, every year, China adds an entire Indian airforce worth of 4th and 4.5 gen fighter of 5th gens.

250 to 330 5th gen fighters every year added to PLAAF with block upgrades, produced in several different cities and facilities until 6th generation LRIP.

6th gen LRIP and training formation lets assume for sake of argument starts 2030 to 2033. That would be 4 to 7 years of 5th generation mass production but just like how 4.5 gens are still being produced during 5th gen era, although scaled down considerably, 5th gens will remain in production just for PLAAF and PLANAF (not considering even exports then) until 6th gens hit mass production at the very least. This would be approximately mid to late 2030s for mass production of 6th gens.

Which means at least another decade of 5th gen production where the average rate during this decade would be 250-330 a year. Some of that may be for export but if tensions rise, maybe not.

In any case, China's capabilities are nowhere even near peak yet.

People have seen nothing yet. The automation revolution benefits have barely been shown. The output is going to make WW2 war equipment output look juvenile if China wants to hit the gas pedal. My assumption is China will be sensible and just outpace everyone but not go crazy like Soviets or Americans in over-weaponising.

It'll chart out a sweet spot but given this is China, it's slow pace is going to be the rest of the world combined and this includes the USA. It'll continue building hundreds of 5th gens per year and dozens of surface and subsurface combatants plus hundreds of SRBM - ICBM missiles every month. Yes, every month. The monthly output of SRBM, MRBM and IRBM in Chinese PLARF is already over 100 per month in recent years just by satellite tracking of factory output fields. After greater automation and in case of greater tensions, this can easily be tripled or greater.

 

[Beijingwalker]

China’s J-20 And J-35A Stealth Fighters Don’t Have To Beat The F-22 And F-35. Beijing Is Building Enough That They Don’t Need To​

June 10, 2026

Commercial satellites caught China’s fighter plants adding eight million square feet — enough to build 100-plus stealth fighters a year while the F-22 line stays closed forever. The J-20 and J-35A don’t have to beat America’s best jets. The production math means they don’t need to.

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2026/06...ng-is-building-enough-that-they-dont-need-to/

 

[RealNapster]

Once J-35 hits mass production, every year, China adds an entire Indian airforce worth of 4th and 4.5 gen fighter of 5th gens.

250 to 330 5th gen fighters every year added to PLAAF with block upgrades, produced in several different cities and facilities until 6th generation LRIP.

6th gen LRIP and training formation lets assume for sake of argument starts 2030 to 2033. That would be 4 to 7 years of 5th generation mass production but just like how 4.5 gens are still being produced during 5th gen era, although scaled down considerably, 5th gens will remain in production just for PLAAF and PLANAF (not considering even exports then) until 6th gens hit mass production at the very least. This would be approximately mid to late 2030s for mass production of 6th gens.

Which means at least another decade of 5th gen production where the average rate during this decade would be 250-330 a year. Some of that may be for export but if tensions rise, maybe not.

In any case, China's capabilities are nowhere even near peak yet.

People have seen nothing yet. The automation revolution benefits have barely been shown. The output is going to make WW2 war equipment output look juvenile if China wants to hit the gas pedal. My assumption is China will be sensible and just outpace everyone but not go crazy like Soviets or Americans in over-weaponising.

It'll chart out a sweet spot but given this is China, it's slow pace is going to be the rest of the world combined and this includes the USA. It'll continue building hundreds of 5th gens per year and dozens of surface and subsurface combatants plus hundreds of SRBM - ICBM missiles every month. Yes, every month. The monthly output of SRBM, MRBM and IRBM in Chinese PLARF is already over 100 per month in recent years just by satellite tracking of factory output fields. After greater automation and in case of greater tensions, this can easily be tripled or greater.

Do you think China is planning some 1000 J-20 and 1000 J-35 ? Or more ? Or less ?

And doest this high number of 5th generation fighters makes sense when it already have J-36 and J-50 on the horizon ?

And most importantly, can China really afford to maintain an airforce that have 2000+ 5th generation and then many hundreds of 6th generation fighter jets in 2035s ? I am not even counting the countless J-16 and J-15 that China keep building even today. So add atleast 1500 4+/4.5/4.5+ to that mix as well...

.all this only makes sense if
1. China plan to have foreign military bases in near future
Or
2. It is not seeing J-36 and J-50 Join PLAAF and PLAN before 2035.

 

[niubi]

Do you think China is planning some 1000 J-20 and 1000 J-35 ? Or more ? Or less ?

And doest this high number of 5th generation fighters makes sense when it already have J-36 and J-50 on the horizon ?

China currently has around 500 J-20s and a few dozen J-35s (both navy and land based versions).

J-36 and J-50 on the horizon is still 2035 give or take 3 years for these 6th gen fighters to hit mass production. That is between 6 and 12 years of J-20 and J-35 mass production at a rate of 120+/year and 150+/year respectively. This yields between 720+ to 1440+ new J-20s and 900+ to 1600+ new J-35s to be introduced before 6th gen hit their mass production.

Yes J-35s have not hit mass production yet but they are basically there.

This provides PLAAF and PLANAF with a total 5th gen fleet of approximately 1220+ to 1940+ J-20s and 930+ to 1630+ J-35s before 6th gen really have any usefulness in PLAAF (that means tactics formed after LRIP and both models in mass production).

I think this would be a minimum fleet force that PLAAF and PLANAF desires if we look at the lower end of that range since I they are already hinting that 6th gen will reach service sooner than people assume so rather than late 2030s for mass production, it might be mid or even early 2030s. That gives approx 1220 J-20s and 930 J-35s until then.

US has approx 500-600 F-35s now and receive around 60/year which to 2033 would be roughly a force of 185 F-22s + ~1020 F-35s. China basically wants to dwarf the size of US forces in the 2030s so yes the measurements align quite reasonably and match with the production rates currently achieved and planned for J-35.

6th gens only come into play after all that so no point slowing 5th gen production until then.

And most importantly, can China really afford to maintain an airforce that have 2000+ 5th generation and then many hundreds of 6th generation fighter jets in 2035s ? I am not even counting the countless J-16 and J-15 that China keep building even today. So add atleast 1500 4+/4.5/4.5+ to that mix as well...

Afford a massive fleet of approx 2000 5th gens come 2033-2035? Yes because most 4th gens would be retired by then and all these are internal from the mine to the maintenance. Not a single RMB spent outside China.

.all this only makes sense if
1. China plan to have foreign military bases in near future
Or
2. It is not seeing J-36 and J-50 Join PLAAF and PLAN before 2035.

Well China is planning for quite a lot of carriers and J-35s are the only manned 5th gen platform for carriers until 6th gen. UADFs are not manned so not in the same class and mission profile. If 10 carriers with a wing of say even just 40 each on average, that's 400 on deck already and backups are required for readiness <80% and maintenance plus replacements if needed.

That cuts land based J-35s down to only around 600 units.

Then consider export options in this production rate and nominal total and exports of used 5th gens too which could be a thing in the 2030s as no one else except Turkey has any real 5th gen alternative on the market in the horizon to 2035. No chance Su-75 becomes ready for export by 2035 since flying prototype doesn't even exist yet. KF-21 is not 5th gen and unlikely to have internal bay version ready by 2035.

European ones are being cancelled and again even further behind than Su-75.

Su-57, F-35, J-35 are the only export options of 5th gens in 2033 to 2035. KAAN is probably equipping TuAF around then but production rate and export permission is unknown.

 

[RealNapster]

This provides PLAAF and PLANAF with a total 5th gen fleet of approximately 1220+ to 1940+ J-20s and 930+ to 1630+ J-35s before 6th gen really have any usefulness in PLAAF (that means tactics formed after LRIP and both models in mass production).

This put combine 5th generation fleet of PLAAF and PLANAF between 2150 and 3570. Add 1500 4/4.5/4.5+ fighters. So even if you keep 6th gen out of the equation. That is still fleet of anywhere between 3650 and 5070 fighter jets. China is in no need of these many fighter jets. Even 10 carrier groups wont require more than 650 fighter jets and that is for global force projection. You think to secure its land China will need 4000+ fighter jets (plus the additional 600-700 for carrier groups) ? It's not 1940s.

 

[NGAD IS THE BEST]

Afford a massive fleet of approx 2000 5th gens come 2033-2035? Yes because most 4th gens would be retired by then and all these are internal from the mine to the maintenance. Not a single RMB spent outside China.

And this will be huge burden on China economy then, Remember bro 5th gen jets operational/maintenance and logistic costs are 3-4 times higher than 4th and 4.5th gen jets and same goes to 5th gen and your upcoming 6th gen jets, I don't see that your newer 4.5th gen jets like J-16/J-16D/J-15 and later versions of J-11B and J-11BH goes anywhere before mid to late 2040

 

[niubi]

This put combine 5th generation fleet of PLAAF and PLANAF between 2150 and 3570. Add 1500 4/4.5/4.5+ fighters. So even if you keep 6th gen out of the equation. That is still fleet of anywhere between 3650 and 5070 fighter jets. China is in no need of these many fighter jets. Even 10 carrier groups wont require more than 650 fighter jets and that is for global force projection. You think to secure its land China will need 4000+ fighter jets (plus the additional 600-700 for carrier groups) ? It's not 1940s.

And this will be huge burden on China economy then, Remember bro 5th gen jets operational/maintenance and logistic costs are 3-4 times higher than 4th and 4.5th gen jets and same goes to 5th gen and your upcoming 6th gen jets, I don't see that your newer 4.5th gen jets like J-16/J-16D/J-15 and later versions of J-11B and J-11BH goes anywhere before mid to late 2040

Well my personal opinion is that before PLAAF receive A variants (so the block after initial production run for tactic development service versions) of J-36 and J-50, PLAAF and PLANAF combined will have over 2000 5th generation fighters.

This is where the production rate and upramping is and where the timeline is assuming 6th gens take another 6 to 10 years to hit mass production (3-6 years to get to LRIP and another 3-5 years to go from LRIP to mass production).

J-20 first flying prototype (advanced prototype NOT demonstrator) flew in public in 2011, hits LRIP in 2016-2017 (5-6 year gap), mass production in 2021-2022 mostly due to J-20S model and second WS-15 (5 year gap).

J-36 and J-50 public flights in 2024. Now multiple prototypes. Probably at J-20 in 2013-2014 prototyping equivalent level.

Given the timeline, there is that much time before 6th gens hit mass production and just like how 4.5 gens are still being made despite J-20 having been in mass production for so many years, 5th gens will still be produced after 2035 or whenever 6th gens are in mass production. Given the minimum production rate of J-20 and J-35, that will yield over 2000 5th gens.

Whether all those will be for PLAAF and PLANAF is unknown but China is building J-20 and J-35 like F-16s in bygone era where thousands upon thousands are produced, used, exported, rented, etc.