China may soon have more J-20 stealth fighters than the USAF has F-35As

[wangdefa]

I think the J-20 production line will slow down once China has successfully tested the 6th gen VCE on both J-36 and J-50 around 2030.

We don't know when the Third World War will break out, but it's acceptable to prepare in advance. For me, four thousand aircraft is not too many. It would only cost a few hundred billion dollars over ten years. That's no problem.
Don't forget that in 2016 we were constantly preparing and getting ready, and the production line was proceeding according to plan.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

We don't know when the Third World War will break out, but it's acceptable to prepare in advance. For me, four thousand aircraft is not too many. It would only cost a few hundred billion dollars over ten years. That's no problem.

Basically China will not slow down as the J-20 will be mass produced until 2030, then starting in 2030, the 6th gen aircrafts will be mass produced instead of the J-20.

This means that China will not lower its guard for the possible outbreak of the ww3.

 

[wangdefa]

Basically China will not slow down as the J-20 will be mass produced until 2030, then starting in 2030, the 6th gen aircrafts will be mass produced instead of the J-20.

This means that China will not lower its guard for the possible outbreak of the ww3.

lol, the Chinese people will never be satisfied with the current military output. They will only demand that the government invest more funds.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

lol, the Chinese people will never be satisfied with the current military output. They will only demand that the government invest more funds.

The period of 2021-2025 was just to put China on par with the US on most domains, also ahead in some domains.

The period of 2026-2030 will push China ahead of the US in most domains, and overwhelmingly ahead in some domains.

We just need to be more patient.

 

[huanghong]

If China had such plans for J-20, it wouldn't be building 4/4.5/4.5+ geneeration fighter jets in 2026. Common sense dictates that China will not build more than 1200 J-20 and 1500 J-35.

Actually, in the first half of 2026, apart from the J-15, Chinese military enthusiasts did not notice any new J-10 or J-16 fighters being produced.

 

[niubi]

J-16D is still a main product. J-16 hasn't been noticed for a while though.

J-15T is still obviously a main product as well as the DT electronic warfare version. This is more because J-35 simply doesn't have the heavy payload capacity of the Flanker and PLANAF wants and needs both along with MUM-T UADFs/CCAs which have been spotted on 004 Fujian carrier.

 

[RealNapster]

China can build newer type of stealth jet without slowing down J-20 production with its unrivaled industrial might.

China can also build 5000 J-10C. But will it ? And should it ? Chinese production capability is not under question here. The need and requirement is.

 

[RealNapster]

Basically China will not slow down as the J-20 will be mass produced until 2030, then starting in 2030, the 6th gen aircrafts will be mass produced instead of the J-20.

This means that China will not lower its guard for the possible outbreak of the ww3.

Chinsese VCE engine is exlected to be fielded in J-36 and J-50 around 2035. Do you think china will wait for this engine or start initial block production of J-36 and J-50 with WS-10 variant ?

 

[niubi]

China can also build 5000 J-10C. But will it ? And should it ? Chinese production capability is not under question here. The need and requirement is.

Yes it could build 5000 J-10C with 10 years of production similar to how it can produce approx another 2500 5th gens in the same 10 years of production to total around 3000 5th gens by 2035-36.

Until 6th generation hit mass production, the most capable fighters available to PLAAF is still the J-20 and J-35, not the J-10. Therefore, it is not a correct logical statement to make that China can produce 5000 J-10 but has no need or requirement therefore it won't produce 3000 5th gens between 2017 and 2035 (or whenever 6th gen mass production starts). J-10 and J-20 + J-35 are not remotely in the same capability spectrum and therefore the need and requirement calculus is vastly different. China will produce at least another 2000 5th gen fighters before scaling production down.

The timeline for the two 6th gen programs agree with this. The production rate for 5th gens agree with this. The many new production facilities for 5th gens agree with this. The scaling back of 4.5 gen production agree with this (all 4.5 gen fighters appear to have slowed or production stopped except for J-15T, J-15DT and J-16D). The fact that outside of Su-57, F-35, and when approved also J-35 export options exist for the international market lines up with this. Not to mention that KAAN is expected to enter service around the time China's 6th gens enter PLAAF service. KF-21 has no internal bay and the model that will is not off powerpoint. The Su-75 hasn't got a flying prototype yet. The AMCA is mostly powerpoint still. 5th gens will be here to a long time and produced into the mid 2030s and most likely later for the US and China and for the others, produced into the 2040s at least.

 

[wangdefa]

In the scenario I envision, if World War III involves tens of millions of troops, I believe 4,000 aircraft would be too few. We cannot guarantee the scale of World War III, but preparing for the worst requires a massive amount of supplies and equipment to be ready in advance.
Both sides in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have mobilized over a million troops, but it can only be considered a regional war.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Chinsese VCE engine is exlected to be fielded in J-36 and J-50 around 2035. Do you think china will wait for this engine or start initial block production of J-36 and J-50 with WS-10 variant ?

China will field the J-36 and J-50 in smaller batch by 2027 with the 2D nozzles WS-15.

As the VCE, China has demonstrated in 2025 that the engine development is progressing smoothly, most likely ahead of the XA103 with also slightly higher benchmark.

And I don't think it needs to wait until 2035, most likely testing on the J-36 and J-50 in the 2030, then probably mass produced before 2035.

Since the J-20 started to test the WS-15, and by 2026, it starts the mass production.

If the VCE can be tested on the J-36 and J-50, then the complete 100% version of the J-36 and J-50 will be available in mass production before 2035.