China may soon have more J-20 stealth fighters than the USAF has F-35As

[niubi]

IMHO, your numbers seem very high, especially considering the cost of all the equipment, and China’s conservative approach. IMHO, perhaps 2000 5th gen fighters (probabaly ~1400 J-20 and 600 J-35) in total by 2040 seems to be more along the lines of how China trends; growth but within a doctrine of first island chain dominance.

By 2050, your numbers seem more likely, as what you describe appears to be the world class military Xi has outlined he desires. China wants to save money to be able to put it towards quickly building their 6th gen aircraft in mass starting in the late 2030s.

It was in part the overspending on the military that contributed to the fall of the Soviet Union, and one thing they hammer home in China is don’t follow the mistakes of the Soviets.

I completely understand this perspective as others have also raised but the economic structure functions differently with China. Yes Soviet style resource allocation error is a thing but they operated with a significantly more centrally planned economy and industrial setup with far greater depth of control. China is a much more loosely planned economy and while it's true overspending on military is a thing that can collapse nations, China currently spends less of its nominal GDP than the US.

You are still correct in that it's better to strike a balanace. 3000 5th gens by 2036 is NOT balancing because it takes resources away from other fields and other platforms. The 3000 number is simply my commenting on the ground facts. 120+ J-20s produced a year and much higher rate for J-35 once it hits peak mass production rate (which J-20 has achieved).

I also don't expect China to field 3000 5th gens by 2036. I think it will field around 2000 because UADFs and CCAs are going to perform so many of the roles currently only done by fighters.

It can field up to 3000 in a decades time but if it does produce at capacity and there's no reason to question why it wouldn't since everything is set up. I suspect a lot of those J-35s are for export. There's also the requirement that production facilities ideally are spread out a little and lines can operate even if some are damaged during war.

Another factor to consider is that in the grand scheme of things, 1000 additional 5th gen fighters is materially not that much. The cost is considered differently since AVIC is state owned and run unlike Boeing and Lockheed Martin. The cost calculation is quite different and China likes taking advantage of scale. Even F-16 was produced in the thousands by the US. No reason why 5th gen wouldn't be similar when we're talking about China which is something else when it comes to manufacturing scale and capability.

 

[NGAD IS THE BEST]

No reason why 5th gen wouldn't be similar when we're talking about China which is something else when it comes to manufacturing scale and capability.

You have to consider this also bro operating/maintenance and logistic cost of 5th gen jets are 3-4 times of 4th/4.5th gen jets, and China has no unlimited funds for its defense

 

[royalharris]

You have to consider this also bro operating/maintenance and logistic cost of 5th gen jets are 3-4 times of 4th/4.5th gen jets, and China has no unlimited funds for its defense

The proportion of China’s military expenditure relative to its GDP is much lower than that of most nations across Europe, America, India, Pakistan, the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific

 

[NGAD IS THE BEST]

The proportion of China’s military expenditure relative to its GDP is much lower than that of most nations across Europe, America, India, Pakistan, the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific

oh dear you have other department to fund with also, and with current defense expenditure you can't support 2000/2500 5th gen jets

 

[FuturePAF]

I completely understand this perspective as others have also raised but the economic structure functions differently with China. Yes Soviet style resource allocation error is a thing but they operated with a significantly more centrally planned economy and industrial setup with far greater depth of control. China is a much more loosely planned economy and while it's true overspending on military is a thing that can collapse nations, China currently spends less of its nominal GDP than the US.

You are still correct in that it's better to strike a balanace. 3000 5th gens by 2036 is NOT balancing because it takes resources away from other fields and other platforms. The 3000 number is simply my commenting on the ground facts. 120+ J-20s produced a year and much higher rate for J-35 once it hits peak mass production rate (which J-20 has achieved).

I also don't expect China to field 3000 5th gens by 2036. I think it will field around 2000 because UADFs and CCAs are going to perform so many of the roles currently only done by fighters.

It can field up to 3000 in a decades time but if it does produce at capacity and there's no reason to question why it wouldn't since everything is set up. I suspect a lot of those J-35s are for export. There's also the requirement that production facilities ideally are spread out a little and lines can operate even if some are damaged during war.

Another factor to consider is that in the grand scheme of things, 1000 additional 5th gen fighters is materially not that much. The cost is considered differently since AVIC is state owned and run unlike Boeing and Lockheed Martin. The cost calculation is quite different and China likes taking advantage of scale. Even F-16 was produced in the thousands by the US. No reason why 5th gen wouldn't be similar when we're talking about China which is something else when it comes to manufacturing scale and capability.

Great points; China has structural and economic resilience the Soviets never had. Producing for export will indeed be where China could sell the J-35. A lot of countries, that can’t get the F-35 or want to counter the F-35 will be hopeful they could get J-35s. Heck, if the GCC is making a major shift, they could absorb hundreds of J-35s and even help Pakistan buy nearly a 100 for the PAF, as part of Joint defense agreements between Pakistan and various GCC nations.

Balancing with CCA fighters will be crucial. The USAF is currently looking at a contract between the two suppliers for a total of 150 CCA over the next year or so, and a total of 1000 CCA probably by some time in the mid 2030s.

https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/4520575/air-force-advances-future-of-air-superiority-with-cca-contracts/

I suspect, China too will not use these lines to their maximum for just manned fighters, but have these lines producing both manned and unmanned/CCA aircraft. Considering all this relatively excess production capacity, China will probably be producing, for domestic and export, closer to 2000-3000 CCA over the next 15 years, alongside the additional 1500 5th gen fighters for domestic use, and probably 500 J-35s for export. Just my guess looking at the size of the production facilities and extrapolating from how many advanced twin engine manned fighters they can make a the designs we saw at the last major parade.

In the next 10 years, we will probably see a PLAAF/PLANAF that will be near parity with number of assets the US has in the region, and probably by 2050, will have more assets than the combined numbers by all potential adversaries around China. Not just in quantity, but in quality. This goes across the board, Air Force, navy, army, marine corps, and supporting services.

https://hinaray.com/how-many-military-drones-does-china-have/

 

[Luciferdd]

The number of sixth-generation aircraft won't be as large as many people imagine, but at the same time, the number of sixth-generation tailless CCA (Conventional Cruise Aircraft) that can be paired with them will exceed many people's imagination, and by a significant margin

 

[niubi]

The number of sixth-generation aircraft won't be as large as many people imagine, but at the same time, the number of sixth-generation tailless CCA (Conventional Cruise Aircraft) that can be paired with them will exceed many people's imagination, and by a significant margin

Yes this is why UADF Type A and Type B both appear to forgo the gapless control surfaces their manned counterpart 6th gen fighters have.

The only issue with UADF and CCAs is they do not have the same range as fighters. China will need to put into service 10+ LHDs and drone carriers to offset this range issue.