Hakikat ve Hikmet
Think Tank Analyst
- Nov 14, 2015
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The answer to the question in the above tile is NO, as per defense analyst Pravin Swahney, a former colonel in the IA and the editor of the Force magazine. His reasonings (see the source) are as follows:
- Since 1990 the IA's primary focus is on the COIN ops, especially in the IOK, that give its officers honor, privilege, promotions etc.
- The IA and PA are peer militaries that can defeat one another via only a hot war that is diametrically opposite to the COIN ops.
- The Modi regime has asked the IA to redouble their efforts on the COIN ops that go perfectly well with building its political rhetoric to gain votes at an accelerating rate.
- Since the erecting of the "fool proof" wall at the LOC, thanks to Musharraf's offering a ceasefire, the IA has gone into a "Maginot Line" syndrome. They feel too comfortable and secured behind the wall.
- The current top leadership of the IA are the experts in the COIN ops only. Hence, Modi habitually resorts to "nobody has entered into our soil" or "(my addition) if there were Rafales".
- China, along with Pakistan, is cleverly leveraging this COIN induced handicap of the IA to its fullest.
- Not crossing the LOC during the Kargil conflict, or not escalating the ladder following 02-27 acts of war by the PAF, or not trying to regain 4k km2 of the land in Ladakh from the Chinese are all the products of the IA's inability to wage a peer-level hot wars for they're not in their core doctrines or training to begin with.
- No respite for the Bharati military is at sight.
- Etc.
- The PA , PAF and PN must leverage the asymmetric warfare by the robotic means concepts and execution to the fullest. And, they need to develop their doctrines, procurement, planning, training etc. accordingly.
- The Pak military industrial complex needs to invest 10x more on the "robotic" warfare gadgets. The Turkish military industrial complex can be taken as a reference for R&Ds, JVs, TOTs, local productions etc.
- Etc.
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