The COVID-19 summer wave 2024 is still ongoing. Here’s what infectious disease doctors say could be next, and how to best protect against the latest variants.
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The COVID Summer Wave Is Still Here—What Doctors Say It May Mean for Winter
Korin Miller
Thu, August 22, 2024 at 7:30 a.m. EDT·5 min read
The COVID Summer Wave Is Still Here—What Doctors Say It May Mean for Winter
- The summer COVID-19 wave is happening now.
- Experts anticipate this will continue for several more weeks.
- It's unclear how this will impact the winter respiratory virus season.
While the reprieve from soaring temperatures may make it seem like the season is coming to a close, the COVID-19 summer wave persists. In fact,
COVID-19 cases in the U.S. have been elevated since June and are still high.
While
summer COVID waves are nothing new—we’ve experienced them nearly every year since the pandemic began—this wave has been drawn out. With kids headed back to school, it’s only natural to wonder if this wave will stretch right into fall and winter, especially with the contagious
KP.3.1.1. and
LB.1 variants circulating.
Meet the experts:
Thomas Russo, M.D., professor and chief of infectious disease at the University at Buffalo in New York; infectious disease expert
Amesh A. Adalja, M.D., senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security;
Adriana Glenn, Ph.D., associate professor at the George Washington University School of Nursing.
So, what’s the latest on the COVID summer wave 2024 and what does this mean for this winter? Here’s what we know right now.
Where do things stand with the COVID-19 summer wave 2024?
There’s a lot happening with COVID-19 in the U.S. right now. Percent positivity—which is the percentage of all COVID-19 tests performed that are actually positive—stands at a whopping 18.1% right now, according to data from the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Right now, 2.4% of people who head to the emergency room are diagnosed with COVID-19 and nearly 2% of all deaths in the country are due to the virus, per CDC data.
This is all being fueled by the so-called
FLiRT variants, including KP.3. Currently variants KP.3.1.1, LB.1, and KP.2.3 are the most common ones circulating in the country, per the
CDC.
How long will the COVID summer wave last?
It’s hard to say for sure how long the COVID-19 summer wave will last, but we probably have a few more weeks to go, according to
Thomas Russo, M.D., professor and chief of infectious disease at the University at Buffalo in New York.
“The wave has been hitting different parts of the country at different times,” he says. “The South and West coast were hit first.” In general, Dr. Russo says that the waves tend to rise over four to six weeks, plateau, and then decrease over six to eight weeks. “We’re still going to be in the middle of this for a few weeks, and certainly through Labor Day,” he says.
Infectious disease expert
Amesh A. Adalja, M.D., senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, agrees. “COVID summer waves usually last into about September and then the virus diminishes its activity,” he says. Cases tend to ramp up again when the weather gets colder, Dr. Adalja adds.
“Hopefully we’ll have a respite before we hit the Thanksgiving and religious holiday seasons, which is the start of the winter waves,” Dr. Russo says.
What are the symptoms of the latest COVID-19 variants?
The official symptoms of COVID-19 have not changed. According to the
CDC, those include:
- Fever or chills
- Cough
- Shortness of breath or difficulty breathing
- Sore throat
- Congestion or runny nose
- New loss of taste or smell
- Fatigue
- Muscle or body aches
- Headache
- Nausea or vomiting
But many people with COVID-19 right now are experiencing what feels like a cold, says
Adriana Glenn, Ph.D., associate professor at the George Washington University School of Nursing. “The symptoms do remain very similar to those of upper respiratory viruses,” she adds.
This cold-like experience is “a reflection of the level of immunity in the population in the virus, causing more cold-like symptoms as a person’s immune system is able to control it much better,” Dr. Adalja explains.
“Some people have a cough, but it tends to be more of a throat-clearing cough vs. something deep in the chest,” Dr. Russo says. “There’s a sense of not feeling well in the first few days. That tends to go away and leaves you with a head cold.”
But Dr. Russo stresses that people who are at high risk for serious COVID-19 infections may have a different experience. “Symptoms to watch out for include shortness of breath, chest pain, dizziness, and confusion, among others,” Dr. Russo says. While high-risk patients are the most likely to experience these, he points out that anyone can become seriously ill with COVID-19.
What does this mean for winter?
It’s not entirely clear at the moment. “This virus does tend to increase in circulation in the winter, so we have to anticipate that,” Dr. Adalja says. “This has occurred despite summer increases every year the virus has been with us.”
But if you happen to get infected with the virus now and the same variants are still circulating this winter, it’s possible you’ll have a “reasonable degree of protection” in the winter, Dr. Russo says. “However, we know that immunity wanes over time,” he continues. “Protection against severe disease tends to last four to six months and protection against infections tends to last even less than that.”
It’s also entirely possible that a new variant will surface and cause a new wave of infections, Dr. Russo says. Glenn agrees. “The viruses’ year-long presence provides more opportunities for mutation and when that happens there are new variants that emerge,” she says.
So, what does this mean for you? Once the
new COVID-19 vaccine is released, Dr. Russo recommends getting it. “The new formulation should be available soon,” he says. “We’re still seeing 400 to 500 deaths from COVID a week and they’re largely preventable. I’m hoping we can do a little bit better with vaccination as we move forward into the fall.”