Bangladesh Economy

[HostileInsurgent]

He told me that, BD's actual GDP figure is likely to be around $400 billions.

Actually around half the figure

 

[Afif]

Actually around half the figure

Amm..no. BD doesn't have the industrial set up to export $50 billions from a $200 billions economy. Beside, the person who I talked to is an actual economist. Definitely knows what he is talking about.

And we know that BB's figure is accurate becuase of IMF formula which now they have to follow as prerequisite for the loan installments.

 

[HostileInsurgent]

Amm..no. BD doesn't have the industrial set up to export $50 billions from a $200 billions economy. Beside, the person who I talked to is an actual economist. Definitely knows what he is talking about.

And we know that BB's figure is accurate becuase of IMF formula which now they have to follow as prerequisite for the loan installments.

Why not? You're more of an export-oriented economy than a consumption one.

 

[Arthur]

In a nuthsell, Bangladesh actual Export was around $51 billions last year, but Government Export Promotion beauru showed it as $62+ billions.

Similar/even worse data mismatch ($14 billions) has also been observed this year.

But that just tip of the iceberg. It is does not merely question credibility of other government agencies and their stats, we all know very well they are also complicit in similar data fabrication. It's just that there is no way to prove it.

Personally, I recently got to talk to an economist who is a professor at an university.

He told me that, BD's actual GDP figure is likely to be around $400 billions. And it is inflated by more 10% in government published figure. ($450 billions, lol)

Also, government significantly manipulated the latest census. (I knew it before, the actual population numbers could be as high as 190 millions.)

That's puts our actual GDP per Capita just above $2000. Lol. Our GDP per Capita never surpassed the Indian one. They were running with the fake story for years. @UKBengali (bruh, )

@Bengal71 @Arthur @Joe Shearer and @Nilgiri (I swear if you tell me, I told you so....)

@Al-Zakir bro, there is another thread with similar report. But this one is more accurate, comprehensive and in good faith. I request you to keep it and delete the other one. Or you can merge that one with this.

Also, please keep the upcoming trolls in check.

It was quite obvious since atleast 2018 that BD's export & GDP figures are blotted.

If it was not so they would not have to cut imports so harshly to bring a semblence of normalcy in the current account.

BDT's devaluation against USD in my opinion should rather be called a 'crash'. Because that is what it really is.

Two points from my observation :

1. Taka was overvalued to the T. They should have taken the path to gradual devaluation of currency atleast 6 years ago.

The fall would have been softer since our economy would have naturally adapted itself for a fall.

2. Export figures were blotted to hide the money laundering of political cronies and to not raise any alarms. Same goes for the foreign currency reserve.
Awami League was just overconfident that they can fool evryone all the time.

BD's economy is in a full blown crisis, caused by unchallenged looting and sheer level of management.

 

[Arthur]

Why not? You're more of an export-oriented economy than a consumption one.

You have some legit point here.

Atleast vis a vis Vietnam.

I hope someone with good knowledge willggive us some probable scenarios.

 

[Afif]

You have some legit point here.

Atleast vis a vis Vietnam.

I hope someone with good knowledge willggive us some probable scenarios.

Why not? You're more of an export-oriented economy than a consumption one.

Well, no. there is other indicators point to the comparative size of BD economy.

Domestic Market cap is one obvious one. It's around $70-80 billions. For comparison, Pakistan's market cap is around $30-35 billions.

There are HDI indicators that are hard to fabricates. It's not possible to reach those stats with a $1000 per capita GDP.

 

[Afif]

Obviously, we are being completely cynical here. Not all of the $14 billions is fake. There are legitimate reasons for the mismatch.

I.e. some exporters may be withholding proceeds due to political concerns, while others may be delaying transfers to benefit from the taka's depreciation against the dollar,

Additionally, the unfavorable exchange rate may incentivize some exporters to utilize unofficial channels, further straining Bangladesh's foreign exchange reserves. These are legitimate reasons and at best may account for $3-4 billions mismatch. But nearly $14 billion disparity obviously points toward fabrication.

 

[UKBengali]

Obviously, we are being completely cynical here. Not all of the $14 billions is fake. There are legitimate reasons for the mismatch.

I.e. some exporters may be withholding proceeds due to political concerns, while others may be delaying transfers to benefit from the taka's depreciation against the dollar,

Additionally, the unfavorable exchange rate may incentivize some exporters to utilize unofficial channels, further straining Bangladesh's foreign exchange reserves. These are legitimate reasons and at best may account for $3-4 billions mismatch. But nearly $14 billion disparity obviously points toward fabrication.

You are saying two different things here.

Yes BD economy is not doing that great but what do you expect with the double-whammy of COVID-19 and Ukraine war?

We need to stop panicking and let the dust settle.

In 2022, some were predicting that BD would default by end of 2022 and it did not happen.

No serious economic organisation has raised major concerns about BD economy or data and so we need to stop stressing.

Is there mismanagement and some looting? Of course but overall BD is on the right path economically.

 

[c14-Isotope]

BD per capita PPP which does not rely on export figures or nominal values shows similar numbers to India.

????

1) GDP= C+I+G+NX
where NX= net exports

2) GDP PPP= GDP * (value of $ in your currency/ PPP conversion factor)

3) GDP per capita PPP = GDP PPP/population

The average BD'shi now has similar living standards to the average Indian.

No

 

[Nilgiri]

No, everything needs to be recalculated again. Read the article.

Its beating a dead horse with some that are ideologically convinced on something. Best leave it to be and give it even more time, and they look even sillier later.

PPP is literally calculated from the nominal base with a PPP multiplier. So first big oops is if the nominal base has whatever inflation (price level or political needs etc) to begin with.

The PPP multiplier again requires ICP updating (regarding the price levels locally, and qualitative needs regarding this), this is done only every 5 years or so and then back-applied as well. I posted the ICP website and papers tons of times on old PDF, but you can only lead a horse to water, you can't make it drink.

Anyway I always said time + reality fixes every agenda. Ideological/emotional needs can't beat time and reality in end. It will be something to watch

Exports/imports is one of best numbers that are credible to anything produced within the country statistically.... as there is vetting from other countries on their end. So its no surprise this shows up now when integrals from other countries are essentially cross referenced and discrepancy found now.

There's other base inputs (hard to distort/fudge for number of reasons) that can be tracked to..... none of it stacks well with the whole "east asian tiger are result of and needed authoritiarn regimes as prerequisite" spiel ideology for Hasina/BAL family/regime cringe apologia at any cost.....as one can look at energy consumption of say South Korea during its growth....the correlation here.

But the bigger question looms always: how do you get BD to reform on basic things so it improves to a more genuine credible tier to get more quality investment for the current stock of human capital it has? BD is so polarized politically that there is need for "all in" winner takes all dynamic. It would have been better for BD if the two ladies were lot more reasonable with each other.... but then this gets into all kind of rabbit holes.....one lady never forgives the other side for killing whole family and then throwing a grenade at her rally (while she out of power)....and now that vengeance dynamic costs BD as whole as there is not really much institutional heft outside of executive power....as BD itself is small and compact country with such high population at same time. Its very unique problem its got baked in.

 

[Joe Shearer]

@Bengal71 @Arthur @Joe Shearer and @Nilgiri (I swear if you tell me, I told you so....)

 

[Afif]

Its beating a dead horse with some that are ideologically convinced on something. Best leave it to be and give it even more time, and they look even sillier later.

PPP is literally calculated from the nominal base with a PPP multiplier. So first big oops is if the nominal base has whatever inflation (price level or political needs etc) to begin with.

The PPP multiplier again requires ICP updating (regarding the price levels locally, and qualitative needs regarding this), this is done only every 5 years or so and then back-applied as well. I posted the ICP website and papers tons of times on old PDF, but you can only lead a horse to water, you can't make it drink.

Anyway I always said time + reality fixes every agenda. Ideological/emotional needs can't beat time and reality in end. It will be something to watch

Exports/imports is one of best numbers that are credible to anything produced within the country statistically.... as there is vetting from other countries on their end. So its no surprise this shows up now when integrals from other countries are essentially cross referenced and discrepancy found now.

There's other base inputs (hard to distort/fudge for number of reasons) that can be tracked to..... none of it stacks well with the whole "east asian tiger are result of and needed authoritiarn regimes as prerequisite" spiel ideology for Hasina/BAL family/regime cringe apologia at any cost.....as one can look at energy consumption of say South Korea during its growth....the correlation here.

But the bigger question looms always: how do you get BD to reform on basic things so it improves to a more genuine credible tier to get more quality investment for the current stock of human capital it has? BD is so polarized politically that there is need for "all in" winner takes all dynamic. It would have been better for BD if the two ladies were lot more reasonable with each other.... but then this gets into all kind of rabbit holes.....one lady never forgives the other side for killing whole family and then throwing a grenade at her rally (while she out of power)....and now that vengeance dynamic costs BD as whole as there is not really much institutional heft outside of executive power....as BD itself is small and compact country with such high population at same time. Its very unique problem its got baked in.

Yes, this is the biggest question. India could do those reforms because it has institutional democracy. I mean, without somewhat free and fair election there never going to be basic form of accountability in our cultural setting. Because current ruling party acting and feel like they are in it for life, so they can do whatever they want. The sheer level of looting and mismanagement is mind blowing. And now those are paying off. And state has to carry the burden.

And you are right, a great deal of BD's national politics has been about vengeance. And it costed us dearly. And yes it's a bunch rabbit holes. No one knows what to believe and it only paddle more conspiracies. Though for the record, Hassina never seriously accused Zia of being involved in the killing of Mujeeb. But that hasn't stoped the blood feud for a bit. It's been going on for decades.

Many fear, the worse is yet to come. The economic crisis is just the tip of the iceberg. Hassina is approaching 80 without any credible and feasible road map for succession. Very few believe BAL will be able to hold it togather after her. Because simply there is no one who could do it. I guess the crisis of succession is one of the main characteristics of autocracy. Mr, Vlad (on a much bigger and greater setting) also runs into the same problem.

 

[HostileInsurgent]

Well, no. there is other indicators point to the comparative size of BD economy.

Domestic Market cap is one obvious one. It's around $70-80 billions. For comparison, Pakistan's market cap is around $30-35 billions.

But then, India is currently at $5.4 trillion.
Market cap is a different thing all together.

There honestly isn't much to point towards it having that high GDP size.

There are HDI indicators that are hard to fabricates. It's not possible to reach those stats with a $1000 per capita GDP.

HDI itself is a survey based index that depends upon GDP per capita PPP which itself is calculated by dividing GDP per capita nominal by price level ratio. So, if nominal GDP is inflated, PPP gets inflated as well.

 

[UKBengali]

Here is some interesting evidence on the relative performance of S Asian economies. We can all produce whatever evidence we need to dispute official data that comes out but there is always evidence that looks like it contradicts this. I am not disputing Indian GDP per capita numbers but to say it is higher than BD when it has a serious hunger issue unlike BD is a bit of a stretch.

Global Hunger Index 2023: The Power of Youth in Shaping Food Systems

The Global Hunger Index is a peer-reviewed annual report, jointly published by Concern Worldwide and Welthungerhilfe, designed to comprehensively measure and track hunger at the global, regional, and country levels. The aim of the GHI is to trigger action to reduce hunger around the world.

www.globalhungerindex.org

 

[Afif]

But then, India is currently at $5.4 trillion.
Market cap is a different thing all together.

There honestly isn't much to point towards it having that high GDP size.

Well, that is true.

But then, India is currently at $5.4 trillion.
Market cap is a different thing all together.

There honestly isn't much to point towards it having that high GDP size.

HDI itself is a survey based index that depends upon GDP per capita PPP which itself is calculated by dividing GDP per capita nominal by price level ratio.

No, GDP per Capita is one of three factors when determining HDI. Other two are being life expectancy and education.

Anyway, do you have any credible reference for claiming BD's GDP is $200 billions? Otherwise, this is futile.