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General Economic Updates

ghazi52

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Mar 21, 2007
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Ministry of Finance projects inflation at 27.5-28.5% for December

  • In latest ‘Monthly Economic Update and Outlook’ report, it anticipates reading to further ease out to 24-25% in January
BR Web Desk
December 27, 2023

Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation in Pakistan for December has been projected at 27.5-28.5%, the finance ministry said in its monthly economic report on Wednesday.

In its latest ‘Monthly Economic Update and Outlook’ report, the finance ministry anticipated inflation to further ease out to 24-25% in January 2024.

The ministry said the outlook for the remaining months of FY2024 is expected to be at a moderate level despite the upward revision of administered prices (gas prices).

“This is on account of a stable exchange rate, contained aggregate demand, better supply position, moderation in the international commodity prices, and favourable base effect.

“Moreover, the recent decline in petrol and diesel prices is expected to compensate for the inflationary pressure exerted through higher gas prices as the decline in fuel prices has a significant impact on the common man through reduced transportation and production costs.

“Efforts of the sub-national governments to implement lower fares of public transport and freight charges in line with the reduced fuel prices would further ease the inflationary pressure,” read the report.

The Ministry of Finance said that due to improvement in supply position and easing out the imported inflation along with the high base effect will help to contain the inflationary pressure ahead.

In November 2023, CPI inflation was recorded at 29.2% on YoY basis, up from 23.8% in November 2022.

On the external front, the Ministry of Finance noted that the current account balance turned to surplus in November, on account of a decline in primary income debit, which decreased significantly by 36% on a MoM basis.

“For the outlook, considering all other components of secondary income included worker’s remittances as well as primary income balance, the current account will remain in a manageable limit,” read the report.

On the revenue side, the Ministry of Finance highlighted that the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) tax revenues surpassed the target by Rs27 billion set for Jul-Nov FY2024.

“The revenue performance indicates that tax policy and administrative measures are paying off in terms of continuous improvement in revenue collection. With this pace, it is expected that the tax collection target for FY2024 will be achieved,” it added.

 

ghazi52

Think Tank Analyst
Mar 21, 2007
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165,405
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Economy is out of woods: monthly outlook​

Projects inflation to remain in double digits, likely to settle at 'moderate level'

Shahbaz Rana
December 28, 2023

Pakistan’s economic challenges—higher budget and current account deficits—have been brought down to a manageable level, laying the foundation for higher economic growth, claimed the Finance Ministry’s Economic Advisor wing on Wednesday.

In its monthly economic outlook report, the Finance Ministry’s Economic Advisor wing pronounced that inflation would now settle to a “moderate level,” albeit still in higher double digits.

“The twin deficit is on a downward trajectory signifying better economic management to reduce the macroeconomic imbalances. This lays the foundation for progressing towards higher and sustainable economic growth,” said the finance ministry.

The budget and current account deficits, known as twin deficits and ills of Pakistan’s economy, have pulled down economic growth and are the symptoms of irresponsible expansionary fiscal operations.

It is likely to be the second-last economic outlook report that the finance ministry has released during the interim setup. The elections are scheduled for February 8, and January would be the last month for the caretakers.

The outlook report for December has painted a rosy picture of the economy, but the sustainability of these indicators remains questionable.

The finance ministry said that the inflation outlook for the remainder period of this fiscal year is seen at a moderate level despite the upward revision of administered prices. It added that inflation is anticipated to remain around 27.5% to 28.5% this month and may further ease out to 25% in January. However, this pace is quite high for the majority of Pakistanis.

The finance ministry said that the pace is slowing because of a stable exchange rate, contained aggregate demand, a better supply position, moderation in international commodity prices, and a favourable base effect.

It added the recent decline in petrol and diesel prices is expected to compensate for the inflationary pressure exerted through higher gas prices, as the decline in fuel prices has a significant impact on the common man through reduced transportation and production costs.

The finance ministry said that cautious expenditure management played an instrumental role in controlling non-essential spending; however, the challenge of higher mark-up payments persists. The government spent Rs2.3 trillion or 82% of the net federal income on interest payments during the July-October period of this fiscal year.

Read Improved economy propels PSX to new highs

The finance ministry said that it will continue the current fiscal strategy to achieve set targets, emphasising both revenue enhancement and prudent expenditure control.

The government has brought development spending to a halt—at just Rs76 billion in four months—received Rs970 billion bullet payment of profit from central bank to show lower deficits, according to sources.



The finance ministry said that the “Fiscal side highlights the successful implementation of consolidation measures” in the first four months of FY2024, leading to a significant rise in total revenue receipts that outpaced the growth in expenditures.

It added, the fiscal deficit has been curtailed to 0.8% of GDP or Rs862 billion, and the primary surplus has improved to Rs1.43 trillion during the first four months. The primary surplus continued to improve owing to contained growth in non-markup spending, it added.

On the back of SBP bullet payment and higher petroleum levy collection, net federal revenue receipts increased to Rs2.8 trillion during the first four months of the fiscal year.

The sharp rise in revenues has been largely attributed to a considerable improvement in non-tax revenues that grew by more than 360% in four months. The non-tax revenues increased to Rs1.58 trillion. Similarly, FBR tax collection grew by 29% to Rs2.75 trillion.

The government’s nightmare was higher interest payments that grew 63% to Rs2.23 trillion, whereas non-debt servicing expense increased 19%. The finance ministry said that external sector indicators also showed a strong recovery during the first five months of the fiscal year.

Based on the improved trade balance, the current account posted a deficit of $1.1 billion during the first five months, down from $3.3 billion in the previous year.

It added in the coming months, it is expected that exports would remain at around the current observed level and take advantage of the increase in domestic economic activities and encouraging foreign demand.

Similarly, imports will continue to observe their increasing momentum in the coming months with assumptions of a stable exchange rate and soothed global commodity prices.

However, economic growth is exhibiting mixed performance. Wheat cultivation nearly met its planned area. Notably, Punjab exceeded its wheat sowing target by 2%.

For the Rabi season 2023-24, wheat crop has been cultivated on an estimated area of 8.73 million hectares against the target of nearly 9 million hectares to achieve the production target of 32.3 million tonnes.

The LSM sector is still facing contraction due to record high-interest rates, increasing the cost of energy, and higher input prices.

The performance of the auto-industry remains subdued due to massive increases in input prices and tightened auto finance.


 

swas

Member
Dec 31, 2023
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85

Pak's economy sharnk 0.6% this year and population grew at 1.8%; so the per capita GDP shrank by approx 2.4%, the average Pakistan become 2.5% poorer this year. Add to that the 40% inflation rate, pending CPEC loans, 24 cents per KW energy costs and Pakistanis are looking at total economic meltdown.

Poverty headcount is estimated to reach 39.4% in FY23, with 12.5 million more Pakistanis falling below the Lower-Middle Income Country poverty threshold of $3.65/day.

Pakistan’s economy faced a sharp slowdown in FY23, contracting by 0.6 percent in real GDP and projections indicate a potential recovery with GDP growth reaching 1.7 percent in FY24 and 2.4 percent in FY25.

The decline in economic activity reflects the cumulation of domestic and external shocks including the floods of 2022, government restrictions on imports and capital flows, domestic political uncertainty, surging world commodity prices, and tighter global financing, said the World Bank in its latest report “Pakistan Development Update: Restoring Fiscal Sustainability” released on Tuesday.

The previous fiscal year ended with significant pressure on domestic prices, fiscal and external accounts and exchange rate, and loss of investor confidence. The difficult economic conditions along with record high energy and food prices, lower incomes, and the loss of crops and livestock due to the 2022 floods, have significantly increased poverty, the report said.

The poverty headcount is estimated to have reached 39.4% in FY23, with 12.5 million more Pakistanis falling below the Lower-Middle Income Country poverty threshold (US$3.65/day 2017 PPP per capita) relative to 34.2% in FY22, it added.


Without a sharp fiscal adjustment and decisive implementation of broad-based reforms, Pakistan’s economy will remain vulnerable to domestic and external shocks. Predicated on the robust implementation of the IMF Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), new external financing and continued fiscal restraint, real GDP growth is projected to recover to 1.7 percent in FY24 and 2.4 percent in FY25. Economic growth is therefore expected to remain below potential over the medium term with some improvements in investment and exports.

According to the report, limited easing of import restrictions thanks to new external inflows will widen the current account deficit in the near term and weaker currency and higher domestic energy prices will maintain inflationary pressures. While the primary deficit is expected to narrow as fiscal consolidation takes hold, the overall fiscal deficit will decline only marginally due to substantially higher interest payments.

The economic outlook is subject to extremely high downside risks, including liquidity challenges to service debt payments, ongoing political uncertainty, and external shocks.

“Careful economic management and deep structural reforms will be required to ensure macroeconomic stability and growth,” said Najy Benhassine, World Bank Country Director for Pakistan.

“With inflation at record highs, rising electricity prices, severe climate shocks, and insufficient public resources to finance human development investments and climate adaptation, it is imperative that critical reforms are undertaken to build the fiscal space and public means to invest into inclusive, sustainable, and climate-resilient development,” he added.

To regain stability and establish a base for medium-term recovery, the report recommends reforms to drastically reduce tax exemptions and broaden the tax base through higher taxes on agriculture, property and retailers; improve the quality of public expenditure by reducing distortive subsidies, improving the financial viability of the energy sector, and increasing private participation in state-owned enterprises; and strengthening management of public debt through better institutions and systems, and by developing a domestic debt market.
 

swas

Member
Dec 31, 2023
94
85
Can't Understand when Pakistan Real GDP Growth Rate is positive (although very small but positive) than how can Real GDP decreased? Seems PTI-supporter News Netword based data.
https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/pakistan/overview World bank says so

Pakistan’s economy is estimated to have contracted in FY23, after two consecutive years of stellar growth. Overall, real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have declined by 0.6 percent in FY23 after growing by 6.1 percent in FY22 and 5.8 percent in FY21. Floods caused heavy damage to crops and livestock, while difficulties securing critical inputs, including fertilizers, further slowed agriculture output growth. With 44 percent of poor workers relying on agriculture, weak agricultural performance had significant poverty impacts. Supply chain disruptions due to import restrictions and flood impacts, high fuel and borrowing costs, political uncertainty, and weak demand affected industry and service sector activity, and dampened private investment. Private consumption also shrank with weakened labor markets and surging inflation. This likely reduced the labor incomes of millions of workers, especially those who moved to lower-productivity informal jobs.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1779109#:...slowed sharply in,according to the World Bank.

I am pretty sure the guys at world bank have a better understanding of economics than any youthiya
 

Fatman17

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Apr 24, 2007
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Pak's economy sharnk 0.6% this year and population grew at 1.8%; so the per capita GDP shrank by approx 2.4%, the average Pakistan become 2.5% poorer this year. Add to that the 40% inflation rate, pending CPEC loans, 24 cents per KW energy costs and Pakistanis are looking at total economic meltdown.

Poverty headcount is estimated to reach 39.4% in FY23, with 12.5 million more Pakistanis falling below the Lower-Middle Income Country poverty threshold of $3.65/day.

Pakistan’s economy faced a sharp slowdown in FY23, contracting by 0.6 percent in real GDP and projections indicate a potential recovery with GDP growth reaching 1.7 percent in FY24 and 2.4 percent in FY25.

The decline in economic activity reflects the cumulation of domestic and external shocks including the floods of 2022, government restrictions on imports and capital flows, domestic political uncertainty, surging world commodity prices, and tighter global financing, said the World Bank in its latest report “Pakistan Development Update: Restoring Fiscal Sustainability” released on Tuesday.

The previous fiscal year ended with significant pressure on domestic prices, fiscal and external accounts and exchange rate, and loss of investor confidence. The difficult economic conditions along with record high energy and food prices, lower incomes, and the loss of crops and livestock due to the 2022 floods, have significantly increased poverty, the report said.

The poverty headcount is estimated to have reached 39.4% in FY23, with 12.5 million more Pakistanis falling below the Lower-Middle Income Country poverty threshold (US$3.65/day 2017 PPP per capita) relative to 34.2% in FY22, it added.


Without a sharp fiscal adjustment and decisive implementation of broad-based reforms, Pakistan’s economy will remain vulnerable to domestic and external shocks. Predicated on the robust implementation of the IMF Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), new external financing and continued fiscal restraint, real GDP growth is projected to recover to 1.7 percent in FY24 and 2.4 percent in FY25. Economic growth is therefore expected to remain below potential over the medium term with some improvements in investment and exports.

According to the report, limited easing of import restrictions thanks to new external inflows will widen the current account deficit in the near term and weaker currency and higher domestic energy prices will maintain inflationary pressures. While the primary deficit is expected to narrow as fiscal consolidation takes hold, the overall fiscal deficit will decline only marginally due to substantially higher interest payments.

The economic outlook is subject to extremely high downside risks, including liquidity challenges to service debt payments, ongoing political uncertainty, and external shocks.

“Careful economic management and deep structural reforms will be required to ensure macroeconomic stability and growth,” said Najy Benhassine, World Bank Country Director for Pakistan.

“With inflation at record highs, rising electricity prices, severe climate shocks, and insufficient public resources to finance human development investments and climate adaptation, it is imperative that critical reforms are undertaken to build the fiscal space and public means to invest into inclusive, sustainable, and climate-resilient development,” he added.

To regain stability and establish a base for medium-term recovery, the report recommends reforms to drastically reduce tax exemptions and broaden the tax base through higher taxes on agriculture, property and retailers; improve the quality of public expenditure by reducing distortive subsidies, improving the financial viability of the energy sector, and increasing private participation in state-owned enterprises; and strengthening management of public debt through better institutions and systems, and by developing a domestic debt market.
Unfortunately the "grey economy " is performing much better than the supposed "real" GDP.
 

silicon0000

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Mar 1, 2015
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https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/pakistan/overview World bank says so

Pakistan’s economy is estimated to have contracted in FY23, after two consecutive years of stellar growth. Overall, real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have declined by 0.6 percent in FY23 after growing by 6.1 percent in FY22 and 5.8 percent in FY21. Floods caused heavy damage to crops and livestock, while difficulties securing critical inputs, including fertilizers, further slowed agriculture output growth. With 44 percent of poor workers relying on agriculture, weak agricultural performance had significant poverty impacts. Supply chain disruptions due to import restrictions and flood impacts, high fuel and borrowing costs, political uncertainty, and weak demand affected industry and service sector activity, and dampened private investment. Private consumption also shrank with weakened labor markets and surging inflation. This likely reduced the labor incomes of millions of workers, especially those who moved to lower-productivity informal jobs.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1779109#:~:text=Pakistan's economy slowed sharply in,according to the World Bank.

I am pretty sure the guys at world bank have a better understanding of economics than any youthiya

Post deleted. I might have wrong info about growth rate.
 

Fatman17

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Apr 24, 2007
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The country is nearing bankruptcy. On the
other hand:
Prices of property is all time high. A 4
bedroom apartment in the new project in
Emaar is priced at between 16 to 20
crores....and all sold out.
Restaurant are full.
Petrol pumps have long queues.
Flights going full.
Dollar is at Rs 300 and still not available
in the market.
Event planners don't have dates. Shadi
halls are booked three months in
advance.
Fashion designers outlets are packed.
You just have to go to Dolmen mall and
witness the crowds.
Just a normal Country with a poor government but rich people.
 

swas

Member
Dec 31, 2023
94
85
Unfortunately the "grey economy " is performing much better than the supposed "real" GDP.
This is EXACTLY the pseudo-economy that has lead Pakistan to total collapse. A few idiots with no background in economics spread rumours and those rumours are circulated all over the media. Pakistanis try to spread lies but end up believing their own lies. The calculations of World Bank, IMF and all major global agencies take the entire economy into consideration and their analysis is extremely in-depth. This "grey economy" hiding Pakistan's real economic strength rumour is just as laughable as flat earth hypothesis.

India is a respectable nation and an upcoming super-power. It must try to disassosiate itself from the failed state of Pakistan throught total disengaement. The disegnagenemt must be cultural (refusing to host Pakistani artists, writes, journalists or refusing to play cricket on Pak soil), economic and geo-political. De-hyphenation strategy of the Modi govt is an excellent step in this regard. Other countries must not think of Pakistan when they think of India, it spoils our image.


 

Fatman17

THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
Apr 24, 2007
36,862
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This is EXACTLY the pseudo-economy that has lead Pakistan to total collapse. A few idiots with no background in economics spread rumours and those rumours are circulated all over the media. Pakistanis try to spread lies but end up believing their own lies. The calculations of World Bank, IMF and all major global agencies take the entire economy into consideration and their analysis is extremely in-depth. This "grey economy" hiding Pakistan's real economic strength rumour is just as laughable as flat earth hypothesis.

India is a respectable nation and an upcoming super-power. It must try to disassosiate itself from the failed state of Pakistan throught total disengaement. The disegnagenemt must be cultural (refusing to host Pakistani artists, writes, journalists or refusing to play cricket on Pak soil), economic and geo-political. De-hyphenation strategy of the Modi govt is an excellent step in this regard. Other countries must not think of Pakistan when they think of India, it spoils our image.


I wish you well and let us run our country as we please. I've read all the Doomsday scenarios about Pakistan but nothing has happened and God willing nothing will happen
 

swas

Member
Dec 31, 2023
94
85
Dollar is not a
The country is nearing bankruptcy. On the
other hand:
Prices of property is all time high. A 4
bedroom apartment in the new project in
Emaar is priced at between 16 to 20
crores....and all sold out.
Restaurant are full.
Petrol pumps have long queues.
Flights going full.
Dollar is at Rs 300 and still not available
in the market.
Event planners don't have dates. Shadi
halls are booked three months in
advance.
Fashion designers outlets are packed.
You just have to go to Dolmen mall and
witness the crowds.
Just a normal Country with a poor government but rich people.
Dolalr is not available to buy because nobody trusts your currency anymore. Real estate prices are touching record high because people are preparing for the upcoming collapse. The price of gold and immovable objects skyrockets when people don't trust the value of their own currency, it's economics 101. Every global war forces the price of gold up.

Petrol pumps have long queues because Pak has been unable to create public transport infrastrucutre like India's metro trains. Flights are going full, but PIA is bankrupt and it's planes are getting siezed at international airports.

Shaadi halls, malls, markets are overcrowded because the population has exploded without the necessary businees investments. These investments can't be made because the country is bankrupt and noone in his right mind is investing in Pakistan.
 

swas

Member
Dec 31, 2023
94
85
I wish you well and let us run our country as we please. I've read all the Doomsday scenarios about Pakistan but nothing has happened and God willing nothing will happen
It's not me, but all global economic agencies which are predicting the doomsday scenario. I am just concerned about the potential refugee crisis it can create on our border when millions of starving Pakistanis head to our border begging for aata.
 

silicon0000

Full Member
Mar 1, 2015
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It's not me, but all global economic agencies which are predicting the doomsday scenario. I am just concerned about the potential refugee crisis it can create on our border when millions of starving Pakistanis head to our border begging for aata.

Ye thora ziyada nahi ho gaya 😆
 

Dalit

Elite Member
Mar 16, 2012
26,754
43,395
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Pak's economy sharnk 0.6% this year and population grew at 1.8%; so the per capita GDP shrank by approx 2.4%, the average Pakistan become 2.5% poorer this year. Add to that the 40% inflation rate, pending CPEC loans, 24 cents per KW energy costs and Pakistanis are looking at total economic meltdown.

Poverty headcount is estimated to reach 39.4% in FY23, with 12.5 million more Pakistanis falling below the Lower-Middle Income Country poverty threshold of $3.65/day.

Pakistan’s economy faced a sharp slowdown in FY23, contracting by 0.6 percent in real GDP and projections indicate a potential recovery with GDP growth reaching 1.7 percent in FY24 and 2.4 percent in FY25.

The decline in economic activity reflects the cumulation of domestic and external shocks including the floods of 2022, government restrictions on imports and capital flows, domestic political uncertainty, surging world commodity prices, and tighter global financing, said the World Bank in its latest report “Pakistan Development Update: Restoring Fiscal Sustainability” released on Tuesday.

The previous fiscal year ended with significant pressure on domestic prices, fiscal and external accounts and exchange rate, and loss of investor confidence. The difficult economic conditions along with record high energy and food prices, lower incomes, and the loss of crops and livestock due to the 2022 floods, have significantly increased poverty, the report said.

The poverty headcount is estimated to have reached 39.4% in FY23, with 12.5 million more Pakistanis falling below the Lower-Middle Income Country poverty threshold (US$3.65/day 2017 PPP per capita) relative to 34.2% in FY22, it added.


Without a sharp fiscal adjustment and decisive implementation of broad-based reforms, Pakistan’s economy will remain vulnerable to domestic and external shocks. Predicated on the robust implementation of the IMF Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), new external financing and continued fiscal restraint, real GDP growth is projected to recover to 1.7 percent in FY24 and 2.4 percent in FY25. Economic growth is therefore expected to remain below potential over the medium term with some improvements in investment and exports.

According to the report, limited easing of import restrictions thanks to new external inflows will widen the current account deficit in the near term and weaker currency and higher domestic energy prices will maintain inflationary pressures. While the primary deficit is expected to narrow as fiscal consolidation takes hold, the overall fiscal deficit will decline only marginally due to substantially higher interest payments.

The economic outlook is subject to extremely high downside risks, including liquidity challenges to service debt payments, ongoing political uncertainty, and external shocks.

“Careful economic management and deep structural reforms will be required to ensure macroeconomic stability and growth,” said Najy Benhassine, World Bank Country Director for Pakistan.

“With inflation at record highs, rising electricity prices, severe climate shocks, and insufficient public resources to finance human development investments and climate adaptation, it is imperative that critical reforms are undertaken to build the fiscal space and public means to invest into inclusive, sustainable, and climate-resilient development,” he added.

To regain stability and establish a base for medium-term recovery, the report recommends reforms to drastically reduce tax exemptions and broaden the tax base through higher taxes on agriculture, property and retailers; improve the quality of public expenditure by reducing distortive subsidies, improving the financial viability of the energy sector, and increasing private participation in state-owned enterprises; and strengthening management of public debt through better institutions and systems, and by developing a domestic debt market.

No worries Hindutva. Amritsari Nawaj Sharif is being selected. All will be fine.
 

Dalit

Elite Member
Mar 16, 2012
26,754
43,395
Country of Origin
Country of Residence
This is EXACTLY the pseudo-economy that has lead Pakistan to total collapse. A few idiots with no background in economics spread rumours and those rumours are circulated all over the media. Pakistanis try to spread lies but end up believing their own lies. The calculations of World Bank, IMF and all major global agencies take the entire economy into consideration and their analysis is extremely in-depth. This "grey economy" hiding Pakistan's real economic strength rumour is just as laughable as flat earth hypothesis.

India is a respectable nation and an upcoming super-power. It must try to disassosiate itself from the failed state of Pakistan throught total disengaement. The disegnagenemt must be cultural (refusing to host Pakistani artists, writes, journalists or refusing to play cricket on Pak soil), economic and geo-political. De-hyphenation strategy of the Modi govt is an excellent step in this regard. Other countries must not think of Pakistan when they think of India, it spoils our image.



Dude, you guys have been predicting the end of Pakistan since its inception. Just give it a break now.
 

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