General Economic Updates

@_NOBODY_
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The typical Shaikh Chillis were sounding alarm bells last month.

Poor fellas didn't know the difference between Balance of Trade and Balance of Payment.

Just As much as you know the difference between tatti ( Nawaz sharif ) and dog shit ( Munir) …. Man are you really really really that stupid ? Please don’t have kids and spare us from your Idiocity ….

Pakistan is facing poverty at the level unseen or unheard of in our history.
I anm involved with many charities and I can tell you I have never seen so many desperate requests for help as we are getting now a days .

Even simply thing like insulin and puffers are impossible to buy for ordinary population…. The stories we are getting are simply heart breaking .

Meanwhile today’s budget has record spending on defence and debt servicing ….. citizens are starving and the rulers are busy buying luxury planes and setting up DHA.

Here in Ontario, the premier of one of the richest province in the world bought an official private jet for the government business. There was a huge outcry over this wastage and the next week he sold it back to the company and apologized……

In Pakistan rulers bought a private jet so Maryam can go get her surgery in Switzerland and her Pandoo family can travel on the honeymoon and sightseeing ….
 
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Great Video.
Under EZ model, this will be taken care of with one click instead of running from one place to another.
 
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Pakistan is effectively a Trillion USD economy now!

@hydrabadi_arab @Pakistan Space Agency @Meengla @r3alist @Watandar @RealNapster @BananaRepublic


A 2024 joint study of the International Labor Organization and the Small and Medium Enterprise Development Authority (SMEDA) estimated Pakistan's undocumented economy at $457 billion. While other South Asian nations, particularly Bangladesh and India, do include estimated undocumented GDP figures in their official GDP, Pakistan's official GDP figures do not include such estimates. If the Pakistani government decides to include estimates of the informal economy in its official figures, the country's GDP would jump to $1,059 billion in market exchange terms and over $4,000 billion in PPP terms.

In 2023 when the ILO-SMEDA study was conducted, Pakistan's official GDP was $340 billion (34% less than the undocumented GDP), bringing the total real GDP for 2023 to $797 billion. Pakistan's official GDP figure for 2025-26 is projected to be $452 billion. Assuming that the undocumented GDP has grown at the same rate as the official GDP, the undocumented GDP today works out to $607 billion, bringing the total GDP (documented and undocumented) to over $1 trillion. In terms of purchasing power parity, the total national economy, including the informal economy, is estimated to be over $4 trillion, which translates to over $16,000 per capita.

Being the largest employer, Pakistan's undocumented sector acts as a critical shock absorber for the labor force and sustains millions of low-income households. But it also restricts the government tax collection which could be invested in education, healthcare and infrastructure development. There is a temptation in Pakistan to force documentation of the entire economy as the Indian government has attempted to do. However, it will create a mass unemployment problem as many small businesses would be forced to close.

India is an example of what can go wrong in attempting to bring the informal sector into the tax net too quickly. Demonetization and GST taxes together have decimated the informal sector. But the Indian government continues to significantly overestimate its annual economic growth, particularly by misjudging the size and trajectory of the country's informal (undocumented) sector. Because of these estimation errors, researchers, including India's former Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian, estimate that the absolute level of India's real GDP may be overstated by 22% to 31%. This implies the average citizen's actual standard of living is lower than official data suggests.

Regards
 

LSM finds its footings


BR Research
June 23, 2026

Large-Scale Manufacturing is beginning to look less like a comeback story and more like a return to normalcy.

April 2026 marked another month of healthy expansion, with LSM growing 6.06 percent year-on-year. Cumulative growth for 10MFY26 now stands at 6.44 percent, comfortably keeping the sector on course to meet the broader annual target.

The pace may have settled below the double-digit prints seen in January and March, but the consistency is becoming the more compelling story.

The recovery continues to rest on a much wider foundation than in previous cycles. Sixteen of the 22 LSM sub-sectors are now in positive territory, leaving only six in contraction.
 
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More importantly, the laggards largely carry smaller weights, suggesting the expansion is no longer hostage to the fortunes of one or two industries.

Perspective, however, remains important. Despite the improvement, both the monthly and cumulative LSM indices remain around 14 percent and 4 percent below the highs recorded in FY22.

That gap has narrowed, but it also serves as a reminder that the current cycle is more about reclaiming lost industrial ground than breaking into uncharted territory. FY22 remains the benchmark, and there is little to suggest it will be matched this year.
 
Early signals for the current month are encouraging. Wearing apparel exports have already posted around 18 percent growth in May, suggesting the sector will remain a major contributor to 11MFY26.

Automobile sales also continue to build momentum despite increasingly demanding base effects.

The industrial recovery still has considerable distance to cover before it can rival FY22. But that is becoming a less useful benchmark for judging current performance.

What matters more is that the gains are proving durable, sectorally diverse and increasingly supported by improving macro fundamentals. That makes this recovery look considerably more sustainable than the false starts of recent years.
 
Pakistan is effectively a Trillion USD economy now!

@hydrabadi_arab @Pakistan Space Agency @Meengla @r3alist @Watandar @RealNapster @BananaRepublic


A 2024 joint study of the International Labor Organization and the Small and Medium Enterprise Development Authority (SMEDA) estimated Pakistan's undocumented economy at $457 billion. While other South Asian nations, particularly Bangladesh and India, do include estimated undocumented GDP figures in their official GDP, Pakistan's official GDP figures do not include such estimates. If the Pakistani government decides to include estimates of the informal economy in its official figures, the country's GDP would jump to $1,059 billion in market exchange terms and over $4,000 billion in PPP terms.
The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics does carry out surveys to estimate the size of the undocumented economy and includes it in the GDP.
 

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