hydrabadi_arab
Trusted Member
Lots of new construction going on, its about to double to 12k in 2 years.
General Economic Updates
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Lots of new construction going on, its about to double to 12k in 2 years.
SoulSpokesman
Trusted Member
Pakistanithinktank
Registered Member
Sometimes it feels like Pakistan is a place where even the brightest, most honest people lose their ability to think clearly. You can bring in a world‑class economist, someone who has spent their life studying how nations grow but once they enter our political and bureaucratic maze, the system swallows their common sense. It’s as if the environment itself forces people to abandon logic and fall into the same old patterns. I call it feudal mindset.
I keep hearing politicians and journalists repeat the same poetic lines: “Our friendship with China is higher than the mountains and deeper than the sea.” Beautiful words but when it comes to learning from China’s actual economic model, suddenly everyone goes blind. China built special economic zones, industrial clusters, export discipline, long‑term planning. We admire the friendship but ignore the lessons.
The same thing happens with Saudi Arabia, Turkey and others. We sign alliances, shake hands, take photos, make speeches. But nobody explains how any of this will improve the life of the average Pakistani. Saudi Arabia is pushing ahead with SEZs and mega‑projects that bypass local bottlenecks. The UAE has modernized its entire governance system using technology. Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia, they fixed their systems through discipline, reforms, and long‑term thinking. That’s why global companies are building data centers and major infrastructure in Indonesia.
Meanwhile, in Pakistan, we still operate on short‑term gains. Agricultural land is converted into real estate schemes, and then we import wheat because our own production suffers. Industries that were thriving 20–25 years ago have quietly moved to Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Malaysia, places that offer stability, lower costs, and predictable policies.
And people are leaving. Hundreds of thousands, sometimes close to a million, Pakistanis migrate every year because they see no jobs, no security, no peace. It’s heartbreaking to watch a country lose its talent because the system refuses to change.
Our tax structure tells the same story. Pakistan’s tax‑to‑GDP ratio sits around 10–11%, one of the lowest in the region. Only a few million people file taxes in a nation of 240 million. The informal economy is massive, agriculture is barely taxed, and elite groups enjoy exemptions and loopholes. Ordinary people live hand‑to‑mouth while a small circle benefits from a system designed to protect them.
And now, the establishment has opened the Pandora’s box of creating more provinces, as if redrawing borders will magically fix governance. Without structural reforms, without fixing taxation, bureaucracy, economic planning, and accountability, more provinces simply mean more bureaucracy, more political fragmentation, and more Maryam Nawaz‑style provincial leaderships. It’s multiplying the problem, not solving it.
Until Pakistan confronts its structural issues head‑on, nothing will change. Not alliances, not slogans, not new provinces. The system will keep producing the same outcomes, no matter who sits in the chair.
Pakistanithinktank
Registered Member
Building new stuff doesn't mean progress. Just look at Karachi.
SoulSpokesman
Trusted Member
@Pakistanithinktank
Agricultural land is converted into real estate schemes, and then we import wheat because our own production suffers.
Well, if the farmers who have sold their agricultural land can buy farmland elsewhere and invest in their farms wouldn't it solve your farm production problem?
Regards
Agricultural land is converted into real estate schemes, and then we import wheat because our own production suffers.
Well, if the farmers who have sold their agricultural land can buy farmland elsewhere and invest in their farms wouldn't it solve your farm production problem?
Regards
Pakistanithinktank
Registered Member
In Pakistan, the Establishment can seize land from anyone because there’s effectively no legal barrier strong enough to stop them, not even supreme courts. If they can keep a former prime minister in jail for three years on cases widely viewed as politically motivated, then nothing is off the table. Malik Riaz was handed prime land for pennies because he aligned himself with the Establishment but the moment he refused to turn against Imran Khan, he was pushed out of the country. Pakistan is a deeply complex state, run by power‑hungry actors who will go to any length to protect their influence and they don’t care about public. I call it modern day slavery.
hydrabadi_arab
Trusted Member
Pakistan need to work on increasing yield per acre which is half then what it should be. That will free up land for other imported crops like seed oil etc
Out of 3 biggest cities, only Lahore is build on agricultural land. Karachi is barren waste land and is Pakistan biggest city. Rawalpindi/Islamabad again very limited agricultural potential. The land isn't a problem, per acre yield is.
Lahore is 850k acres of which 300k acres still is irrigated. 2 million acres more can be irrigated in Thal and Bahawalpur with modern irrigation systems.
kambhakt
Registered Member
Water scarcity in Pakistan — a geopolitical ticking time bomb
Pakistan’s water woes are spilling into every corner of its national fabric — from food and farming to diplomacy and disaster.
www.dawn.com
"Pakistan currently stands as the 15th most water-stressed nation in the world."
hydrabadi_arab
Trusted Member
Water scarcity in Pakistan — a geopolitical ticking time bomb
Pakistan’s water woes are spilling into every corner of its national fabric — from food and farming to diplomacy and disaster.www.dawn.com
"Pakistan currently stands as the 15th most water-stressed nation in the world."
Pakistan receive 140MAF/annual from indus per year. The problem is water management.
10 million acres more land can be cultivated still. The work have already started by foujis. Just need to sort out canal building issue between provinces.
Thal/Cholistan arid land is being handed over for corporate farming
kambhakt
Registered Member
So maybe first start work on water management before increasing the acreage.
hydrabadi_arab
Trusted Member
hydrabadi_arab
Trusted Member
Earning S&P, Moody's next upgrade
Ratings growth requires lower debt, high revenues, strong external buffersAAH Soomro
KARACHI:
Pakistan should now set a clear sovereign rating objective: S&P's B+ within two years and Moody's B1 within three to five years. S&P raised Pakistan to B in July 2026, while Moody's has kept it at Caa1 since August 2025.
The country deserves recognition for avoiding default and restoring stability, but ratings are earned through repeatable institutions, not diplomatic "befitting replies". From today, B+ requires one S&P notch and B1 requires three Moody's notches. Even then, Pakistan would remain below investment grade.
The strongest evidence is fiscal. Pakistan's consolidated deficit has fallen from 7.9% of GDP in FY22 and 7.8% in FY23 to 6.8% in FY24, 5.4% in FY25 and a provisional 2.6% in FY26. The primary balance, which excludes interest payments, moved from deficit to surpluses of 0.9% in FY24, 2.4% in FY25 and 2.9% in FY26. The FY27 budget targets another 2% surplus. Three consecutive surpluses establish discipline; sustaining them beyond the IMF programme would establish credibility.
Expenditure restraint has been real. Consolidated current spending fell from Rs21.53 trillion in FY25 to Rs20.69 trillion in FY26, while markup payments declined from Rs8.89 trillion to Rs6.95 trillion. However, the quality of adjustment now matters. Tax revenue was 11.2% of GDP in FY26, while Rs2.43 trillion of State Bank profit and a Rs853 billion negative statistical discrepancy helped the headline result. The next upgrade must therefore come from documented taxpayers, digital compliance and efficient spending, not temporary windfalls.
Development also needs a new financing model. The federal PSDP allocation was Rs1.001 trillion in FY18, roughly $9.5 billion at the exchange rate then. FY27 again allocates about Rs1 trillion, now only $3.6 billion. In FY26, provinces executed Rs2.70 trillion of PSDP spending against net federal spending of Rs727 billion. This shift should be formalised. Dams, roads, airports and universities should increasingly use competitive public-private partnerships, with government providing land, viability gap funding, transparent tariffs and limited guarantees, while banks, pension funds, insurers and infrastructure bonds fund construction.
The NFC must support this division of labour. The present formula assigns 82% weight to population, 10.3% to poverty, 5% to revenue effort and 2.7% to inverse density. A modern award should reduce the population weight and reward own revenue, school enrolment, health outcomes, poverty reduction, climate resilience, export growth, FDI attraction and population stabilisation.
Provinces should fully fund devolved education and health, co-finance social protection such as BISP, and carry more policing and security expenditure. A negotiated national compact can preserve federal responsibility for defence and sovereign debt while sharing the associated fiscal burden more honestly.
History shows that higher ratings are achievable. Pakistan reached S&P B+ in November 2004 and Moody's B1 in November 2006, its strongest modern combination, during the Musharraf period. A second improvement cycle took Moody's from Caa1 to B3 in June 2015 and S&P to B in October 2016 under Nawaz Sharif. Pakistan has therefore regained its 2016 S&P level, but Moody's remains one notch below the 2015 level and three below the 2006 peak.
S&P has supplied the roadmap. A further upgrade requires the annual increase in net general government debt to remain below 3% of GDP, net debt to fall below 60% of GDP, government revenue to keep rising and financing costs to moderate. Its external thresholds include narrow net external debt below 100% of current account receipts and gross external financing needs below 100% of current account receipts plus usable reserves. Pakistan must meet these tests while protecting BISP, education, health and productive infrastructure.
The reward would be tangible. Domestic debt reached Rs59.5 trillion in June 2026. A two- to three-percentage-point reduction in its effective cost, once the portfolio reprices, implies gross annual savings of roughly Rs1.2 trillion to Rs1.8 trillion. The savings would arrive gradually and would reflect inflation, fiscal credibility and monetary policy, not ratings alone. Cheaper sovereign Eurobonds and sukuk would also lower the benchmark for private dollar bonds, which should be permitted mainly for firms with export cash flows.
Lower rates must finance production rather than another consumption and finished import boom. Every concessionary loan, public-private partnership and foreign investment package should target at least $1.50 of additional exports or import substitution for each dollar of imported machinery and inputs.
Indonesia built a nickel processing chain, Saudi Arabia converted hydrocarbons into petrochemicals and Finland turned forests into engineered products and machinery. Pakistan can similarly move from cotton, copper, limestone, rock salt and agriculture into finished goods. Reko Diq should ultimately support refining, metal fabrication, laboratories and engineering services in a prosperous Balochistan, with a smelter pursued when scale, energy and economics justify it.
Finally, the SIFC should become a whole-of-government productivity platform. Link tax, customs, property and banking data; mandate electronic invoicing and open contracting; disclose beneficial ownership; digitise land titles; and establish commercial courts with enforceable timelines. Roshan Digital Account inflows, already $13.65 billion cumulatively, should be directed through diaspora bonds and export funds rather than short-term consumption. Pakistan's next election should not determine the reform horizon. The next rating upgrade should.
The writer is an independent economic analyst
Pakistanithinktank
Registered Member
Water scarcity in Pakistan — a geopolitical ticking time bomb
Pakistan’s water woes are spilling into every corner of its national fabric — from food and farming to diplomacy and disaster.www.dawn.com
"Pakistan currently stands as the 15th most water-stressed nation in the world."
Instead of storing water, we waist majority of the water. All of that can be fixed with proper planning but our politicians think in terms of kickbacks. Major kickbacks on Chinese loans. Pakistani establishment intestinally took the loans from Chinese companies on higher interest due to kickbacks.
Pakistan’s Current Water Storage Reality
Pakistan can store water for only 30 days, while the international benchmark is 120 days. Its existing live storage capacity is 13.68 MAF, down from 16.26 MAF in 1976 due to sedimentation.Major reservoirs today:
- Tarbela — 5.580 MAF
- Mangla — 7.277 MAF
- Chashma — 0.311 MAF
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