General Economic Updates

[hydrabadi_arab]

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Pakistan posts $356mn C/A deficit in September 2026​

 

[hydrabadi_arab]

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Pakistan posts $356mn C/A deficit in September 2026​

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$45bn annual remittance not enough to post C/A surplus. Even $45bn/year remittances cannot take care of 250m hadh haram population dependent on imported goods.

 

[Pakistanithinktank]

Can we grow most expensive mangos in Pakistan?

 

[Owaiz]

$45bn annual remittance not enough to post C/A surplus. Even $45bn/year remittances cannot take care of 250m hadh haram population dependent on imported goods.

The Gulfsteam jets and bulletproof Maybachs are not imported for the 250 million population. The vast majority of the population can barely afford fuel for their 70 cc bikes or two square meals a day. The discretionary imports are for the 0.1% haraamkhor parasites who have usurped the country.

 

[Pakistanithinktank]

@hydrabadi_arab
This is for you.

 

[hydrabadi_arab]

Pakistan’s GDP grows 3.65% in FY2026, economy size reaches $450bn: NAC​

Pakistan has posted a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.65% during FY2026, estimates released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Monday showed.

The growth is lower than the 3.70% estimated by the National Accounts Committee (NAC) during the previous meeting, indicating a slower pace of economic expansion than earlier expected.

“The updated growth rates in agriculture, industry, and services are 3.50%, 3.34%, and 3.81%, compared with earlier growth rates of 2.89%, 3.51%, and 4.09%, respectively,” said NAC in its 118th meeting held today.


In agriculture, important crops improved from 0.65% to 1.59% due to wheat and maize; other crops have witnessed significant improvement from 2.43% to 4.28% due to higher production of pulses (6.3%), fruits (1.3%), tomato (44%), oilseed (5.4%), and green fodder (2.4%).

Meanwhile, livestock decreased slightly from 3.75% to 3.71% because of increased fodder inputs. Further, updated growth rates in forestry and fishing are 10.80% and 1.39%, respectively.

According to NAC, the updated growth in industry during FY2026 is 3.34% as compared to 3.51% estimated previously.

The mining and quarrying industry has improved from 0.38% to 1.52% due to improvement in gas (2.84%), crude oil (5.12%), and coal (2.73%). Large-scale manufacturing (LSM), which is measured through the Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM), has declined from 6.11% to 5.01%, the release said.

Meanwhile, the services industry has declined from 4.09% to 3.81% in FY2026, with positive contributions from all the constituents.

“Wholesale and retail trade declined to +2.37% from 3.71% due to a decrease in manufacturing and imports.

“Transport and storage industry improved to +3.23% from 2.31% due to upward revisions reported in railways, water transport, and air transport.

“While information & communication increased from 7.52% to +9.53%, finance & insurance also improved from 0.32% to +4.23% due to improvement in the insurance industry,” NAC added.

Size of economy

According to NAC, based on the latest figures of the national accounts aggregates for FY2026, the overall size of the economy stands at Rs126.4 trillion, i.e., $450.4 billion, as compared to Rs114.9 trillion, i.e., $408.7 billion in the previous year.

Further, per capita income in PKR for FY2026 is 531,897/- i.e., $1896/, the NAC data showed.

Quarterly figures

The committee approved revised quarterly GDP growth rates for Q1, Q2, Q3 and a fresh growth rate for Q4 during FY2026.

Overall GDP witnessed a slight downward revision in Q1 from 3.92% to 3.89% and upward revisions in the second and third quarters from 4.05% to 4.31% for Q2, and from 3.99% to 4.42% for Q3.

“These changes mainly reflect upward revisions to annual benchmarks in agriculture, boosting growth rates from 2.95% to 3.18% in Q1, from 2.64% to 3.34% in Q2, and from 3.01% to 3.79% in Q3.

“Due to revisions in annual benchmarks and updated indicators, the industry has witnessed changes in all three quarters, from 7.80% to 7.76% in Q1, from 6.68% to 6.62% in Q2, and from 4.65% to 4.87% in Q3.

“While services declined slightly from 3.16% to 3.04% in Q1, upward revisions were observed in Q2, from 3.83% to 4.0%, and in Q3, from 4.18% to 4.54%,” said NAC.

Pakistan’s GDP posted a growth of 2.0% during Q4 of FY2026. Growth in agriculture, industry, and services stood at +3.71%, -4.70% and 3.62%, respectively.

 

[hydrabadi_arab]

Pakistan's power generation rises 5% in September as fuel costs surge 32%​

Electricity generation reaches 13,217 GWh as average fuel cost rises to Rs9.35 per unit; DISCOs seek Rs2.56 per unit positive fuel cost adjustment


Pakistan's electricity generation increased by 5% year-on-year (YoY) to 13,217 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in September 2026, while the average fuel cost of generation surged 32% to Rs9.35 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), according to data compiled by Arif Habib Limited (AHL).

The increase in generation was supported by higher output from hydropower, local and imported coal, and wind energy, while changes in the fuel mix and higher costs of oil-based and RLNG generation contributed to the increase in average generation costs.

Consequently, electricity distribution companies (DISCOs) have sought a positive fuel cost adjustment (FCA) of Rs2.56 per unit for September 2026.


According to AHL's analysis of National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) data, electricity generation increased from 12,592 GWh in September 2025 but declined by 12% month-on-month (MoM) from 14,943 GWh in August 2026.

Hydropower remained the largest source of electricity, generating 4,834 GWh during September, up 1% from 4,783 GWh a year earlier. However, hydel generation declined by 15% MoM, with its share in the total generation mix falling to 36.6% from 38% in September 2025.

Imported coal-based generation recorded a 111% YoY increase to 2,155 GWh from 1,019 GWh, raising its share of total generation to 16.3% from 8.1%.

Local coal generation increased by 10% to 1,327 GWh, compared with 1,202 GWh in September last year, accounting for 10% of total generation.


Wind power generation rose by 36% to 464 GWh from 342 GWh, while solar generation remained unchanged at 108 GWh.

In contrast, electricity generation from regasified liquefied natural gas (RLNG) declined by 56% to 804 GWh from 1,815 GWh in September 2025, reducing its share in the generation mix to 6.1% from 14.4%.

Nuclear power generation fell by 15% to 1,893 GWh from 2,227 GWh, accounting for 14.3% of total electricity output.

Generation from natural gas increased by 13% to 1,066 GWh from 941 GWh, while furnace oil-based generation rose by 171% to 263 GWh from 97 GWh.


High-speed diesel (HSD) contributed 213 GWh during September, compared with no generation recorded from this source in the corresponding month last year.

The average fuel cost of electricity generation increased to Rs9.35 per kWh from Rs7.09 per kWh in September 2025, although it declined by 7% compared with Rs10.01 per kWh in August 2026.

Among individual fuels, furnace oil-based generation remained the most expensive source in the reported fuel-cost data, with its cost increasing by 59% YoY to Rs44.86 per kWh from Rs28.24.

RLNG-based generation costs surged by 88% to Rs39.74 per kWh from Rs21.19, while imported coal-based generation costs increased by 25% to Rs17.23 per kWh from Rs13.74.


In contrast, the fuel cost of local coal-based generation declined by 54% to Rs5.99 per kWh from Rs13.01 a year earlier.

Natural gas-based generation costs decreased by 3% to Rs13.04 per kWh from Rs13.50, while bagasse-based generation costs increased by 11% to Rs10.88 per kWh from Rs9.83.

During the first quarter of FY2026-27, total electricity generation increased by 6% to 43,282 GWh from 40,933 GWh in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year.

Imported coal recorded the largest increase among major generation sources, with output rising by 192% to 6,654 GWh from 2,278 GWh.


Local coal generation increased by 56% to 4,603 GWh from 2,945 GWh, while wind generation rose by 37% to 1,979 GWh from 1,446 GWh.

Hydropower generation increased by 3% to 16,507 GWh from 15,968 GWh, while natural gas-based generation rose by 10% to 3,367 GWh from 3,069 GWh.

However, RLNG-based generation declined by 46% to 3,485 GWh from 6,433 GWh, while nuclear generation decreased by 14% to 4,948 GWh from 5,777 GWh.

The proposed positive FCA of Rs2.56 per unit reflects the higher generation fuel costs reported for September. The adjustment has been sought by DISCOs and remains subject to regulatory determination.