German economy is collapsing

[fitpOsitive]

Dear German leaders listen to these people

 

[PakFactor]

Dear German leaders listen to these people
View attachment 165702

The Italians forgot; the Russians kept fighting because American supplies had not been provided, and had they not been, the Germans would have walked over the Russians. Napoleon was a different matter.

 

[fitpOsitive]

The Italians forgot; the Russians kept fighting because American supplies had not been provided, and had they not been, the Germans would have walked over the Russians. Napoleon was a different matter.

Then why Germans and Americans are not walking over Russians now? Besides sanctions etc.

 

[Watandar]

Simple. Iq 99 people cannot compete against IQ 105 people on a fair, level ground. In addition, the IQ105 people work harder, more disciplined anf organized.
German people behavior during COVID were not good and has damaged its image worldwide as a disciplined society where investor can rely on

I doubt the issue is Chinese being smarter than Germans. The Germans/Europeans are still adapting to the shock of cheap Russian energy not being available anymore and

Simple. Iq 99 people cannot compete against IQ 105 people on a fair, level ground. In addition, the IQ105 people work harder, more disciplined anf organized.
German people behavior during COVID were not good and has damaged its image worldwide as a disciplined society where investor can rely on

That's ridiculous. German economy is still adapting to the shock of losing cheap Russian energy.

 

[Khanivore]

Good for India. Will enable us to jump to #3 faster.

Regards

Don’t get too excited. India is just as vulnerable.

Germany rebuilt from total WWII destruction into a high-productivity industrial powerhouse; its current slowdown is cyclical, not collapse.
India had independence without devastation, yet after ~80 years still struggles with jobless growth, weak manufacturing, and low per-capita income.
Being “#3 by GDP” is mostly population math, not prosperity.
India’s youth dividend is leaking: millions pay $15k–$20k+ to exit via student visas, that’s capital and talent flight, not confidence.
Taxes and levies keep rising while public services lag.
Health burdens (diabetes, heart disease, pollution) are exploding, hurting productivity and future growth.
If Germany sneezes, global trade catches a cold, and India feels it fast.
Economic strength is resilience and productivity, not cheering others’ problems.

 

[FuturePAF]

Good for India. Will enable us to jump to #3 faster.

Regards

China built its industries on the back of being able to export to the west. Without strong western markets, not only will India have its export prospects limited, but with a shift by the US to the western hemisphere and near-shoring, investment may come but not as much as it could have, to allow India to industrialize the way China has. Europe will probably be the same, looking to invest in the MENA, to stem the tide of migration; keeping most new labor in MENA countries.

Every aspirational country should pray the western markets remain stable and open.

 

[Michael]

China is ruining Germany.

Whether you are German or Turkish, it's clear that your viewpoint is seriously biased.

Industrial competition, commercial competition, national competition...... winning and losing are all part of the game. Today's victory does not guarantee perpetual victory. Today's defeat does not mean permanent failure.

Perhaps German industry is facing some difficulties today. This is normal.

From the Chinese perspective, German industry remains a respectable competitor. The German work ethic is still something we can learn from. Unfortunately, present-day Germany is not a fully functioning nation; it cannot realize its full potential. If it were a healthy nation, it would be a respectable and powerful competitor. ------ In our view, having such a competitor is a great blessing in life.

It's not China that's ruining Germany, but European politicians.

Only incompetent people blame their failures on their opponents. True strong individuals look for the reasons for their failures within themselves.

 

[MH.Yang]

Germany companies/enterprises is very different from the German economy. German companies pursue the interests of their share holders, which is profit. When you hear of Volkswagen shuttering manufacturing at factors in Dresden entirely and setting up factories in China, that is not helping German Citizens, or the Germany government or Germany as a whole.

These organisations run very efficiently managed financial flows so that their share holders benefit the most, and not the German exchequer or people or economy.

The conversation is about the Germany Economy, which is a function of Germany companies operating in Germany, employing German citizens and paying German corporation taxes, as well as employees paying to the state. When German enterprises take refugee in China, all that ecosystem starts breaking down which affects the economy!!

When discussing Volkswagen Group's relocation of factories to China in an interview with CCTV, the President of Volkswagen Group China, Heizmann bluntly stated that the large-scale relocation of German companies is due to the rapidly deteriorating business environment in Europe. Moving factories to China and utilizing China's complete and affordable industrial parts environment is the only way for German companies to survive in the future.

That is to say, the executives of these German companies do not believe that China has caused the difficulties of these German companies, but rather that those foolish EU politicians have destroyed their living environment. China is a refuge for these enterprises, not a victim.

We could be more blunt. The war in Ukraine and Mr Trump are the main reasons these companies are leaving Europe, not competition from Chinese companies.

 

[Viet]

China built its industries on the back of being able to export to the west. Without strong western markets, not only will India have its export prospects limited, but with a shift by the US to the western hemisphere and near-shoring, investment may come but not as much as it could have, to allow India to industrialize the way China has. Europe will probably be the same, looking to invest in the MENA, to stem the tide of migration; keeping most new labor in MENA countries.

Every aspirational country should pray the western markets remain stable and open.

China is a big elephant, Germany a mini elephant. If you look at the time horizon the decline of Germany today began after reunification and has accelerated with Merkel erratic politics, green delusional dreamers, population decline, socialism instead of capitalism.
China is just a factor among many but probably the most important. Germany’s one side bet on Russia as main energy supplier, China as friend and consumer market has proven as dead end.

 

[GWXP]

Germany's working age population is 52mln in 2025 and will be 44mln in 2050 assuming continued influx of migrants.

So, Germany will lose 16% of its workforce even if migrants continue arriving. And Germany like other countries of continental Europe is incapable of integrating radically different cultures.

Decline in workforce will be partially compensated by productivity increase due AI and automation.

So decline in labor force creates downward pressure on German economy, while AI and automation create upward pressure. The result is that due to downward and upward pressures German economy will be in stagnation until 2050.

The other problem is that Germany exports 50% of its GDP with half going to EU countries and the other half going to the rest of the world. With decline of economies of Southern Europe and rising competition from China exports will fall and Germany's GDP will shrink.

The other problem is lack of cheap Russian energy for the German industry.

So rising competition from China, shrinking workforce, falling exports, lack of cheap energy and advancements in AI and automation will result in German Economy being in stagnation for the next 25 years.

Meanwhile percentage of people with migrant background in Germany will increase from 28% to 45% by 2050.

With their demographic problems, Germans as an ethnic group probably will not outlive the 21st century.

 

[PakFactor]

Then why Germans and Americans are not walking over Russians now? Besides sanctions etc.

From my limited knowledge, they are just 1) containing Russia, while they posture to 2) contain China. Russia still retains significant air and naval power and is rebuilding its armed forces, while sending men and women to the meat grinder. Lastly, the nuclear arsenal is still a significant threat to the West.

While Americans are divided in their geographic footprint, Europeans have invested in themselves and maintained social benefits during the soft decades; they didn't pour funds into building their militaries and arms industries until now.

 

[FuturePAF]

China is a big elephant, Germany a mini elephant. If you look at the time horizon the decline of Germany today began after reunification and has accelerated with Merkel erratic politics, green delusional dreamers, population decline, socialism instead of capitalism.
China is just a factor among many but probably the most important. Germany’s one side bet on Russia as main energy supplier, China as friend and consumer market has proven as dead end.

Europe is still very productive, investing in its infrastructure. They have recovered from near apocalyptic crisis, many times over. Europe has a culture that can see a rebound, under the right circumstances, as they don’t have a rigid hierarchy as in Eastern cultures. Germany pre-1800s unification, was hundreds of small self supporting kingdoms.

Don’t underestimate Europe, although the disruption would be quite an adjustment.

 

[MH.Yang]

China is a big elephant, Germany a mini elephant. If you look at the time horizon the decline of Germany today began after reunification and has accelerated with Merkel erratic politics, green delusional dreamers, population decline, socialism instead of capitalism.
China is just a factor among many but probably the most important. Germany’s one side bet on Russia as main energy supplier, China as friend and consumer market has proven as dead end.

Many people think that 'China is a refuge for German companies' is a joke. Of course, if you only focus on Germany's employment rate, it will indeed be affected. However, considering Germany's aging population, the impact on employment rates is actually not significant. If you really care about Germany's economic development, then China is indeed a refuge for German companies.

We should honestly admit that the current business environment in Germany is not suitable for the survival of German companies. Germany today is like Japan during the Plaza Accord era, where German companies can only survive by investing overseas. They may not go to China, but they must leave Germany. Looking at Japan's overseas companies, they have continued to maintain Japan's economic growth for a long time. The profits generated by these overseas subsidiaries are continuously remitted back to the parent company through dividends, patent fees, headquarters service fees, and other forms, becoming the most important pillar of the Japanese economy. Toyota and other large Japanese companies have overseas profits accounting for over 50%. And these funds remitted back to Japan stimulated the development of Japan's domestic economy through a trickle down effect. German companies are simply repeating the old path of Japanese companies.

Once again, due to the Ukraine conflict and Trump, it is necessary for German companies to relocate from Germany. It can go to any country in the world, but China is the best destination, and gathering them in one place in Taicang County is more conducive to mutual cooperation among German enterprises. Isn't this a shelter?

German companies should be grateful to the Chinese government. Apart from the Chinese government, which country would allow so many German companies to gather in one place to cooperate each other, maintaining their independence within China's industrial system while taking advantage of China's industrial chain. Isn't this a haven?

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

China is a big elephant, Germany a mini elephant. If you look at the time horizon the decline of Germany today began after reunification and has accelerated with Merkel erratic politics, green delusional dreamers, population decline, socialism instead of capitalism.
China is just a factor among many but probably the most important. Germany’s one side bet on Russia as main energy supplier, China as friend and consumer market has proven as dead end.

Germany can decouple from Russia's cheap fossil fuel energy by following the full green energy path controlled by China.

There is no alternative energy/technology option which is superior to China on this planet.

The German companies have already made their decision by integrating 80-90% of their research/development and manufacturing base into China's ecosystem.

 

[Michael]

China is a big elephant, Germany a mini elephant. If you look at the time horizon the decline of Germany today began after reunification and has accelerated with Merkel erratic politics, green delusional dreamers, population decline, socialism instead of capitalism.
China is just a factor among many but probably the most important. Germany’s one side bet on Russia as main energy supplier, China as friend and consumer market has proven as dead end.

The development of a team is related to multiple factors, but the strategic vision of the leadership plays a decisive role.
The current German politicians are short-sighted and completely lack foresight. However, German entrepreneurs are clearly more perceptive than these politicians.

BTW.

Vietnamese politicians are almost on the same level as German politicians.
China is currently undertaking a massive project. The project's main target is not Vietnam, but once it becomes operational, the entire Vietnamese economy will suffer a fatal blow.
Yet, Vietnamese politicians have not taken any action in response and are still fantasizing about a bright future. When that time comes, will anyone complain that China ruining the Vietnamese economy?