Goldman Sachs, Citigroup cut China's 2024 growth forecast to 4.7%

[Beijingwalker]

Because your population is too poor to buy what your industries build. Chinese govt takes money out of common man's pockets to subsidise industry.

600m with $140 monthly income worries top - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

Chinese premier Li Keqiang-

"China is a populous developing nation with an average per capita income of 30,000 yuan ($4,196.33) per annum, but 600 million people have a monthly income of only 1,000 yuan"

There was many years ago and he was talking about "disposable" income, in US that could be negative, they borrow money to get by. how about Indians disposable income?

 

[Mista]

There was many years ago and he was talking about "disposable" income, in US that could be negative, they borrow money to get by. how about Indians disposable income?

Lol, disposable income just means income after taxes. How could it be negative?

 

[j_hungary]

Lol, disposable income just means income after taxes. How could it be negative?

lol, negative disposable income? Wouldn't that mean they have no income? Or government is charging 100% tax?

Either way, what Beijing never understand is people having debt can still have disposable income........I still have a $350,000 mortgage attach to me, that does not mean I can't spend $10,000 to go on a trip. Not every dime I earn every month after tax go back to the mortgage (debt) as long as I can make over the repayment and everything else is "disposable" for me.

 

[j_hungary]

Even after the recent fall in prices, Chinese properties are still overvalued/expensive relative to the rest of the world, looking at metrics like rental yield or property price to household income ratio.

A bazooka stimulus may provide some reprieve in the short term, but it's not conducive for the long term health of the economy because it's just kicking the can down the road. They have learnt their lesson of overstimulating the economy back in 2009GFC which led to runaway rise in property prices and plagued their economy/society to date.

So what they are doing are just small stimulus in a piecemeal manner to allow property prices to continue to fall but in a controlled manner, so that risks in the financial system can be managed and contained.

It's a more conservative approach, but the risk is that deflation/weak growth might become entrenched and they end up like Japan (or Europe after the GFC), having to spend more on stimulus cumulatively over a prolonged period of downtown. Unlike the US which responded with a robust set of stimulus measures, which explains why the US recovered stronger than Europe after the GFC.

If you're interested:

It's Chinese culture to fall back on properties when basically all else failed. (Probably gold too but not as big as a fall back to as properties does.)

The issue is, even if you are giving stimulus package, you need the people to use them properly otherwise if they all go back to some intangible thing, it wouldn't work.

Therefore, for the Chinese, they're having the hard approach and having to cool off properties market (Which in itself very hard to do) and to retract/discourage certain type of investment. And then the Chinese government can talk about growth in other sector, otherwise the Chinese would just be in this real estate death spiral.

 

[huanghong]

There was many years ago and he was talking about "disposable" income, in US that could be negative, they borrow money to get by. how about Indians disposable income?

Disposable income does not include expenditures, only net income.
For example, a person earns $1,000 per month after deducting taxes and insurance, and he needs to repay $2,000 in debt every month.
Then his disposable income is $1,000, because the $2,000 debt is an expenditure and does not participate in the disposable income statistics. Therefore, disposable income will not be negative.

 

[Beijingwalker]

We all know that remark was just Li's veiled attack on Xi's policy, there's little to support it.

6亿人月收入只有1000元，专家：这是不准确的，只有“这个数”

6亿人月收入只有1000元，专家：这是不准确的，只有“这个数”,工资,低收入,中位数,人均收入

www.163.com