India Economy Thread

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Random investment announcement in UP, for example, in last few days.
 

Uncle Adani..
 

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With so many investments from US, why is INR still depreciating and hitting new low everyday?
 
With so many investments from US, why is INR still depreciating and hitting new low everyday?
A certain secular downward trend in Rupee is to be expected, as long as we rely on imports for oil and electronics.

The current scene is as much about Dollar appreciating as Rupee depreciating. Uncertainty makes investors grab USDs and ditch weaker currencies. On top of it, some investors feel that Indian capital markets are overheated and it is time to book profits. I suspect even RBI is allowing Re to fall so that our exports which got hit after tariffs can get some support.
 
@Species

With so many investments from US, why is INR still depreciating and hitting new low everyday?

In the long run, the INR steadily depreciates 4% against the USD. What is compounding the problem is:

Uncertainty arising out of the non finalisation of the trade deal.
CAD partly because of large gold imports.
Flight of portfolio investors. The Equity market has given modest returns.
The low yields in the domestic debt market. The 10-year GSec is trading at 6.5%, which is barely 2.5% above the 10 year US T bills.

The REER has fallen to 95 or so which is one of the lowest in the last 10 years. So, I wouldn't be surprised if the INR pulls back after the trade deals.

Regards
 

What sticks out is shear speed at which Indian gdp is growing the fastest big economy in the world and forecasted to be 7.6% next year

India with it's massive investment and young population will grow at the rates for three decades eventually overtaking USA too by 2050/2060
 
With so many investments from US, why is INR still depreciating and hitting new low everyday?
Not difficult to guess that India doesn't maintain current account surplus. And much of the "investment" is done in INR. So if they say they'll invest xyz amount, it would be largely done by it's local subsidiary like Amazon India or Microsoft India with FDI being a smaller component.
 
With so many investments from US, why is INR still depreciating and hitting new low everyday?
The rupee is dipping even with US money coming in because our dollar outflow is way bigger than the inflow. The FDI that comes is long term. We import a ton of oil and electronics almost daily, so the demand for dollars never really goes down. On top of that, whenever US interest rates stay high, FPIs pull money out and the dollar gets even stronger worldwide, which naturally pushes INR down. RBI also doesn't try to fix the rate as it lets the rupee move gradually so exports don't get hurt (managed floating currency). So the inflows help, but they can't fully balance our import bill + global dollar strength.
 

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