India Economy Thread

[Vikramaditya1]

Growth in sectors

High-value services: 12.1%
Mining sector: -2.2%
Investment: 11.9%
Services: 10.0%
Manufacturing: 9.2%
Agro: 3.6% (Annadata retardness)
Construction: 7.7%

Production side GVA
Primary sector (2.9%)
Secondary sector (8.6%)
Tertiary sector (10%)

 

[jr_pdf]

Modi is a genius. He introduced gold certificates, asked citizens to buy these papers and not real gold. The scheme ended but enough people brought it and with current gold price India govt will loss $30bn.

His claim to fame was genocide of muslims in Gujarat and general anti-minority which Indian hindus love to this day otherwise he would have been voted out long ago.

Paper gold has been operating in China and other parts of the world for many years.
Modi wants to use paper gold as a name to absorb funds, just like he absorbed funds from overseas Indians with high interest, to fill India's fiscal black hole. This black hole may have expanded to more than 300 billion US dollars, and previously the budget deficit was entirely filled by remittances from the Middle East. This year, because of the war, remittances are gone as well. It seems that this year's hard payments may be beyond imagination, and at the same time it proves that India's foreign exchange reserve figures are highly questionable—otherwise Modi would not have again called for stopping gold purchases. In short, apart from those related to the Modi government, it is difficult for others to get the truth, but from his speeches, it can be confirmed that India is in a difficult situation.

Looking at it now, apart from being a genius at stirring religious hatred and electioneering, Modi's diplomacy scores fail, economy scores fail, and military scores also fail. As a Chinese, I also very much like his continued rule

 

[Vikramaditya1]

Modi is a genius. He introduced gold certificates, asked citizens to buy these papers and not real gold. The scheme ended but enough people brought it and with current gold price India govt will loss $30bn.

His claim to fame was genocide of muslims in Gujarat and general anti-minority which Indian hindus love to this day otherwise he would have been voted out long ago.

You should try to connect things, not go tangential say for example
"Who bought these bonds? Hindus, Hindu undivided Families, charitable Institutions not the Muslims unfortunately because interest is haram, then gold price went up and those who redeemed the bonds and made a tonne of money. This whole scheme was anti-minority.

Basically he gave Hindus 30 billion dollars."

The money stays in the system and the government has money, what it doesn't need is money leaving, say to buy(import) gold. Government has no problem giving money to the public one way or the other. It's cash rich.

 

[jr_pdf]

Category	Amount (USD)
Merchandise trade deficit (Q1 annualized / full-year reference)	~$330 billion (full-year)
Short-term external debt repayment pressure	~$327 billion (maturing within one year)
FPI equity outflows (first half)	~$31 billion

Taken together, these figures show that India is facing simultaneous outflow pressure on trade, debt, and capital markets — a persistent current account deficit, high near-term external debt repayments, and accelerating foreign equity withdrawals. Although foreign exchange reserves remain sizeable at roughly **$682.3 billion**, they declined by $8.1 billion in Q1 FY27 alone, and by $23.6 billion over the full FY26 — the pace of depletion is accelerating.


Half of the foreign trade payments do not need to be paid immediately, including credit for Russian oil and Chinese goods. Even so, it is still higher than I imagined, especially given that India's short-term debt is so high. If the data deviation is not large, India's mandatory spending this year is 600 billion US dollars. No wonder Modi appears so flustered. In fact, the US dollars spent on gold imports are not that much.